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Фотообои

Созданию уюта в доме всегда уделяется особое внимание. Сейчас немало возможностей для достижения комфортной атмосферы в квартире. К одним из таких дизайнерских решений относятся фотообои. Эти настенные покрытия могут использоваться в разных интерьерах, при даже в тех, климат в которых сопряжен с показателями повышенной влажности. Широкий ассортимент наметить стереоскопические 3д фотообои для стен на сайте https://artconvas.ru/stereoskopicheskie, который предоставляет не только все их виды, но и лояльный подход к ценам.

Среди всего многообразия представленных вариантов выделяется три основных вида. Первый- это бумажный, который наиболее распространен, так как является одним из самых недорогих вариантов. На таких фотообоях допустимо разместить любой рисунок, но стоит учесть факт того, что при контакте с солнечным светом они быстро потеряют яркость красок. Есть и нюансы, которые вызваны сложностью монтажа. Неровная поверхность стен или наличие каких-либо дефектов на них будет напрямую отражена на покрытии таких обоев, а для в некоторых эпизодах служит даже полной их деформации. К самым дорогим фотообоям можно отнести тканевые или текстурные, особенно если они созданы на базе индивидуальных текстильных рисунков. Также выделяет флизелиновые и виниловые такие настенные покрытия.

Прежде чем выбрать тот или иной тип фотообоев, стоит оценить влажность помещения, где они будут находиться. Так, например, в ванной комнате не рекомендуется крепить бумажный вид обоев, так как, в этом случае, он прослужит ограниченный срок. Изысканные текстильные обои не стоит размещать в помещениях, где неминуемо соприкосновение с агрессивными запахами, так как они их активно впитывают. Универсальным вариантом, особенно для квартир, где проживают дети, будут фотообои, которые допустимо очищать влажными губками. Они могут также состоять из двух и более слоев, что делает их более прочными, а также упрощает и монтаж. При выборе стоит уделить внимание и самому изображению на картинке, которое планируется наносить на настенное покрытие. В этом плане, самые универсальные виниловые фотообои, так как они подходят практически под любые варианты изображений. Стоит лишь различать рисунок по тому каким он будет: глянцевым или матовым. Отдельно можно уточнить, что такие настенные покрытия могут быть исполнены со специальной клеевой пленкой, что значительно упрощает монтаж таких фотообоев.

15/8/17: A Great Recovery or a Great Stagnation?

Value-added is one measure of economic activity that links the production side to consumption/ demand side (using inputs of say $X value to produce a good that sells for $Y generates $Y-$X in Gross Value Added). Adjusted for inflation, this returns Real Gross Value Added (RGVA) in the economy. Taken across two key sectors that comprise the private sector economy: households & institutions serving the households, and private businesses (including or excluding farming sector), these provide a measure of the economic activity in the private economy (i.e. excluding Government).

Since the end of WW2, negative q/q growth rates in the private sectors RGVA have pretty accurately tracked evolution of economic growth (as measured, usually, by growth rates in GDP). Only in the mid-1950s did the private sector RGVA growth turn negative without triggering associated official recession on two occasions, and even then the negative growth rates signalled upcoming late-1950s recession.

Which brings us to the current period of Great Recovery.

Consider the chart below, computed based on the data from the Fred database:

The first thing that jumps out in the above data is that since the end of the Great Recession, the period of the Great Recovery has been associated with two episodes of sub-zero growth in the private sector RGVA. This is unprecedented for any period of recovery post-recession, except for the period between two closely-spaced 1950s recessions: July 1953-April 1954 and August 1957-March 1958.

The second thing that stands out in the data is the average growth rate in RGVA during the current recovery. At 0.579% q/q, this rate is the lowest on the record for any recovery period since the end of WW2. Worse, it is not statistically within 95% confidence interval bands for average growth rate in post-recovery periods for the entire history of the U.S. economy between January 1948 and October 2007. In other words, the Great Recovery is, statistically, not a recovery at all.

The third matter worth noting is that current non-recovery Great Recovery period is the third consecutive period of post-recession growth with declining average growth rates.

The fourth point that becomes apparent when looking at the data is that the current Great Recovery produced only two quarters with RGVA growth statistically above the average rate of growth for a ‘normal’ or average recovery. This is another historical record low (on per-annum-of-recovery basis) when compared across all other periods of economic recoveries.

All of the above observations combine to define one really dire aftermath of the Great Recession: despite all the talk about the Great Recovery sloshing around, the U.S. economy has never recovered from the crisis of 2007-2009. Omitting the years of the official recession from the data, the chart below shows two trends in the RGVA for the private sector economy in the U.S.

Based on quadratic trends for January 1948-June 2007 (pre-crisis trend) and for July 2009 – present (post-crisis trend), current recovery period growth is not sufficient to return the U.S. to its pre-crisis long term trend path. This is yet another historical first produced by the data. And worse, looking at the slopes of the two trend lines, the current recovery is failing to catch up with pre-crisis trend not because of the sharp decline in real economic activity during the peak recession years, but because the rate of growth post-Great Recession has been so anaemic. In other words, the current trend is drawing real value added in the U.S. economy further away from the pre-crisis trend.

The Great Recovery, folks, is really a Great (near) Stagnation.

15/8/17: A Great Recovery or a Great Stagnation?

Value-added is one measure of economic activity that links the production side to consumption/ demand side (using inputs of say $X value to produce a good that sells for $Y generates $Y-$X in Gross Value Added). Adjusted for inflation, this returns Real Gross Value Added (RGVA) in the economy. Taken across two key sectors that comprise the private sector economy: households & institutions serving the households, and private businesses (including or excluding farming sector), these provide a measure of the economic activity in the private economy (i.e. excluding Government).

Since the end of WW2, negative q/q growth rates in the private sectors RGVA have pretty accurately tracked evolution of economic growth (as measured, usually, by growth rates in GDP). Only in the mid-1950s did the private sector RGVA growth turn negative without triggering associated official recession on two occasions, and even then the negative growth rates signalled upcoming late-1950s recession.

Which brings us to the current period of Great Recovery.

Consider the chart below, computed based on the data from the Fred database:

The first thing that jumps out in the above data is that since the end of the Great Recession, the period of the Great Recovery has been associated with two episodes of sub-zero growth in the private sector RGVA. This is unprecedented for any period of recovery post-recession, except for the period between two closely-spaced 1950s recessions: July 1953-April 1954 and August 1957-March 1958.

The second thing that stands out in the data is the average growth rate in RGVA during the current recovery. At 0.579% q/q, this rate is the lowest on the record for any recovery period since the end of WW2. Worse, it is not statistically within 95% confidence interval bands for average growth rate in post-recovery periods for the entire history of the U.S. economy between January 1948 and October 2007. In other words, the Great Recovery is, statistically, not a recovery at all.

The third matter worth noting is that current non-recovery Great Recovery period is the third consecutive period of post-recession growth with declining average growth rates.

The fourth point that becomes apparent when looking at the data is that the current Great Recovery produced only two quarters with RGVA growth statistically above the average rate of growth for a ‘normal’ or average recovery. This is another historical record low (on per-annum-of-recovery basis) when compared across all other periods of economic recoveries.

All of the above observations combine to define one really dire aftermath of the Great Recession: despite all the talk about the Great Recovery sloshing around, the U.S. economy has never recovered from the crisis of 2007-2009. Omitting the years of the official recession from the data, the chart below shows two trends in the RGVA for the private sector economy in the U.S.

Based on quadratic trends for January 1948-June 2007 (pre-crisis trend) and for July 2009 – present (post-crisis trend), current recovery period growth is not sufficient to return the U.S. to its pre-crisis long term trend path. This is yet another historical first produced by the data. And worse, looking at the slopes of the two trend lines, the current recovery is failing to catch up with pre-crisis trend not because of the sharp decline in real economic activity during the peak recession years, but because the rate of growth post-Great Recession has been so anaemic. In other words, the current trend is drawing real value added in the U.S. economy further away from the pre-crisis trend.

The Great Recovery, folks, is really a Great (near) Stagnation.

Snap elections in Belize

Belize’s Prime Minister Dean Barrow called snap elections on September 28th even though his second term as prime minister is not scheduled to end until February 2017. Barrow hopes that his United Democratic Party (UDP) can capitalize on lingering divisions within the main opposition People’s United Party (PUP) to pick up a few seats in the 31-seat parliament on November 4th.

The economy (favoring the UDP), corruption (favoring the PUP), and an ongoing territorial spat with neighbouring Guatemala (favoring ?) were likely to dominate the campaign, which the battle-hardened UDP, with its better funding, currently looked most likely to win, (Glenn) Tillett said.

There’s also speculation that Barrow and the UDP wanted to take advantage of the benefits of Petrocaribe before they were exhausted and voters turned against them. While not to the same level, Belize has begun to suffer the same challenges of its neighbors – increased drug, timber and human trafficking, gang violence, corruption, general violence, money laundering, etc.