Category Archives: Ukraine SITREP

Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød

Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days.  What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:

A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:

According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy.  Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html

There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine.  See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine

A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine.  I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense.  But the rumor itself is an interesting fact.  See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html

Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia.  See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine

Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement.  See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord

Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran.  See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/

Ukraine is entering hyperinflation.  See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit

Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine.  See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny

The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not.  See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/

Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population.  Their motive?  Money.  See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/

The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border.  See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373

Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139

Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else.  See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw

Summary:

It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place.  In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.

There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on.  Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).

Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians.  The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.

As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist.  For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.

What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again.  They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream.  My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation.  Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.

All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.

The Saker

Saker note @EVERYBODY PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG!
This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation:

http://thesaker.is/blog/

Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød

Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days.  What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:

A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:

According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy.  Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html

There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine.  See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine

A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine.  I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense.  But the rumor itself is an interesting fact.  See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html

Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia.  See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine

Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement.  See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord

Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran.  See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/

Ukraine is entering hyperinflation.  See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit

Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine.  See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny

The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not.  See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/

Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population.  Their motive?  Money.  See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/

The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border.  See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373

Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139

Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else.  See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw

Summary:

It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place.  In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.

There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on.  Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).

Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians.  The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.

As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist.  For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.

What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again.  They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream.  My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation.  Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.

All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.

The Saker

Saker note @EVERYBODY PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG!
This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation:

http://thesaker.is/blog/

Ukraine SITREP Feb 24th 2015



The withdrawal of heavy weapons and M2A:
 
The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that "the necessary conditions have not been created". In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don't have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.

There is also a very real possibility that Poroshenko himself might be preventing that withdrawal. The problem is not in the withdrawal of heavy guns by itself (the junta knows that the Novorussians will not attack) but that after completing this point of the Minsk 2 Agreement (M2A) the junta will have to go down the list and that is simply something the Nazis in Kiev cannot do. My guess is that all this talk about sending in peacekeepers has exactly the same rationale: to stop the implementation of M2A in a way that could not be blamed on Kiev. Clearly, M2A has delivered a crushing blow to the stance of the junta by forcing it to do something it cannot do: negotiate and work with the Novorussian resistance. I have no doubt that Poroshenko wants to break out of M2A, but his problem is how to do it without taking the blame for it. Hence the foot-dragging with an otherwise rather straightforward withdrawal and all that talk about peacekeepers.

US weapons to the Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?

 
The US is still determined to send more weapons to the Ukraine, even in direct violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of M2A. Russia is getting increasingly fed-up with that kind of attitude and Russian officials are now discussing selling the top-of-the-line Antey-2500 missile to Iran. This missile is arguable the most advanced air defense system on the planet and if the Russians really sell that to Iran the US and Israel will be absolutely sick with rage and frustration.

By the way, I was informed that there is a petition on the Internet trying to stop US weapons deliveries to the junta. If you can, please sign it here:

http://diy.rootsaction.org/petitions/no-weapons-to-ukraine

Signs of destabilization in Baderastan

 
The regime of Poroshenko is clearly in a very difficult situation. Roughly speaking, Poroshenko & Co represent the interests of oligarchs masquerading as Nazis while his opposition is the real thing - bona fide Nazi crackpots who feel that their "revolution of dignity" was stolen from them, that the new regime is every bit as corrupt as the old one, and far more incompetent. They are right, of course. So now more and more of these "grassroots Nazis" are threatening Poroshenko with a Third Maidan or even a revolution.

Check out this Right Sector site: http://pravyysektor.info/slider/25-02-2015-marsh-pravdy-marsh-pravyh/

Here is my translation of this text:

A year ago, they came to power in our blood. The blood of patriots. During this year they gave up the interests of Ukraine and betrayed the idea of the Ukrainian nation. They promised to fight corruption. They promised lustration. They made us poor. They destroyed belief in justice. They killed the truth. We remember the never investigated murders of hundreds of Maidan. We remember the murder of Sasha Belyi. We remember the shameful surrender Crimea. We remember Saur-Mogila, Ilovaiisk, the Donetsk airport, Debaltsevo. The perpetrators have not been punished. It's time to hold them to account!
And just to make sure that the message gets through, here is the poster illustrating it:
Right Sector poster

The text says:

March of the Truth
March of the Right
The Maidan did not fight for a regime of traitors
It is time to hold them to account

 
And it is signed by the Right Sector and the organization Trezub of S. Bandera (even crazier crazies than the regular crazies).

Now, it is true that by most accounts the USA has a tight control over the hardcore Nazi crazies in the Ukraine (via leaders like Iarosh) but I am beginning to detect this very old pattern of the puppet breaking lose from the puppeteer which we have all seen in Afghanistan, in Libya and Syria. I would argue that the neo-Nazis crazies in the Ukraine are very similar to the Takfiri freaks of ISIS or the so-called "Syrian opposition". The chances of that kind of hate-filled ideology slipping out of the control of those who fostered it (the USA) is very high.

What about our NATO friends?

 
 Sir Adrian Bradshaw
NATO has been keeping busy. In fact, according to "British Commander Land Forces Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw" NATO is preparing to repel a Russian invasion. In his own words Russian expansionist ambitions could quickly become “an obvious existential threat to our whole being”.

Apparently, the British feel that the Baltic States and Poland have greatly surpassed the UK in hysterical russophobia and fear-mongering and that now is the time to catch up with them with even more terrifying statements. What is sure is that Sir Adrian sure look extremely worried on his official picture...

Last but not least - the OSCE

 
The OSCE has taken notice with grave concern at the de-accreditation of over 100 Russian media sources in the Ukraine. But not because this might be a violation of free speech or journalism, no, but because, I kid you not, the OSCE is concerned that as a result of this de-accreditation "the Russian audience might be deprived from balanced reporting form the Ukraine"!!! The OSCE also added that the organization "understands that national security reasons" behind the Ukrainian decision.

Yet again, all I can say is that I fully agree with V. Nuland.

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP Feb 24th 2015



The withdrawal of heavy weapons and M2A:
 
The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that "the necessary conditions have not been created". In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don't have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.

There is also a very real possibility that Poroshenko himself might be preventing that withdrawal. The problem is not in the withdrawal of heavy guns by itself (the junta knows that the Novorussians will not attack) but that after completing this point of the Minsk 2 Agreement (M2A) the junta will have to go down the list and that is simply something the Nazis in Kiev cannot do. My guess is that all this talk about sending in peacekeepers has exactly the same rationale: to stop the implementation of M2A in a way that could not be blamed on Kiev. Clearly, M2A has delivered a crushing blow to the stance of the junta by forcing it to do something it cannot do: negotiate and work with the Novorussian resistance. I have no doubt that Poroshenko wants to break out of M2A, but his problem is how to do it without taking the blame for it. Hence the foot-dragging with an otherwise rather straightforward withdrawal and all that talk about peacekeepers.

US weapons to the Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?

 
The US is still determined to send more weapons to the Ukraine, even in direct violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of M2A. Russia is getting increasingly fed-up with that kind of attitude and Russian officials are now discussing selling the top-of-the-line Antey-2500 missile to Iran. This missile is arguable the most advanced air defense system on the planet and if the Russians really sell that to Iran the US and Israel will be absolutely sick with rage and frustration.

By the way, I was informed that there is a petition on the Internet trying to stop US weapons deliveries to the junta. If you can, please sign it here:

http://diy.rootsaction.org/petitions/no-weapons-to-ukraine

Signs of destabilization in Baderastan

 
The regime of Poroshenko is clearly in a very difficult situation. Roughly speaking, Poroshenko & Co represent the interests of oligarchs masquerading as Nazis while his opposition is the real thing - bona fide Nazi crackpots who feel that their "revolution of dignity" was stolen from them, that the new regime is every bit as corrupt as the old one, and far more incompetent. They are right, of course. So now more and more of these "grassroots Nazis" are threatening Poroshenko with a Third Maidan or even a revolution.

Check out this Right Sector site: http://pravyysektor.info/slider/25-02-2015-marsh-pravdy-marsh-pravyh/

Here is my translation of this text:

A year ago, they came to power in our blood. The blood of patriots. During this year they gave up the interests of Ukraine and betrayed the idea of the Ukrainian nation. They promised to fight corruption. They promised lustration. They made us poor. They destroyed belief in justice. They killed the truth. We remember the never investigated murders of hundreds of Maidan. We remember the murder of Sasha Belyi. We remember the shameful surrender Crimea. We remember Saur-Mogila, Ilovaiisk, the Donetsk airport, Debaltsevo. The perpetrators have not been punished. It's time to hold them to account!
And just to make sure that the message gets through, here is the poster illustrating it:
Right Sector poster

The text says:

March of the Truth
March of the Right
The Maidan did not fight for a regime of traitors
It is time to hold them to account

 
And it is signed by the Right Sector and the organization Trezub of S. Bandera (even crazier crazies than the regular crazies).

Now, it is true that by most accounts the USA has a tight control over the hardcore Nazi crazies in the Ukraine (via leaders like Iarosh) but I am beginning to detect this very old pattern of the puppet breaking lose from the puppeteer which we have all seen in Afghanistan, in Libya and Syria. I would argue that the neo-Nazis crazies in the Ukraine are very similar to the Takfiri freaks of ISIS or the so-called "Syrian opposition". The chances of that kind of hate-filled ideology slipping out of the control of those who fostered it (the USA) is very high.

What about our NATO friends?

 
 Sir Adrian Bradshaw
NATO has been keeping busy. In fact, according to "British Commander Land Forces Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw" NATO is preparing to repel a Russian invasion. In his own words Russian expansionist ambitions could quickly become “an obvious existential threat to our whole being”.

Apparently, the British feel that the Baltic States and Poland have greatly surpassed the UK in hysterical russophobia and fear-mongering and that now is the time to catch up with them with even more terrifying statements. What is sure is that Sir Adrian sure look extremely worried on his official picture...

Last but not least - the OSCE

 
The OSCE has taken notice with grave concern at the de-accreditation of over 100 Russian media sources in the Ukraine. But not because this might be a violation of free speech or journalism, no, but because, I kid you not, the OSCE is concerned that as a result of this de-accreditation "the Russian audience might be deprived from balanced reporting form the Ukraine"!!! The OSCE also added that the organization "understands that national security reasons" behind the Ukrainian decision.

Yet again, all I can say is that I fully agree with V. Nuland.

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP: *Extremely* dangerous situation in Debaltsevo

The Novorussian and the junta have agreed to a cease-fire to allow the civilian population to leave Debaltsevo.  In theory, each civilian will get to chose whether he/she wants to be evacuated to Novorussia or to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine.  The convoy of refugees will be escorted by senior OSCE officials.  Both sides to the conflict have pledged not to open fire during the time needed for this operation.  Now consider this:

1) The only thing protecting the junta forces are, precisely, these civilians.  If these civilians leave, then Debaltsevo will turn into Saur Mogila.  Until now, the Novorussians have advanced rather slowly precisely because they could not use the full power of their artillery to soften up the well dug-in junta forces.  But thanks to the Voentorg, the Novorussians now have plenty of firepower now and if they decide to really open up upon the junta forces the latter will suffer the same devastating consequences as their (now dead) colleagues in Saur Mogila.  Everybody understands that.

2) Tonight the junta has used white phosphorus again, and in the recent days they have used both ballistic missiles and cluster munitions.  Why this sudden concern with the Debaltsevo civilians (whom the Nazis consider as "bugs" anyway)?  Does anybody really believe that the Nazi freaks in Kiev care for Novorussian civilians?!

3) Kerry, Hollande and Merkel were in Kiev today.  The latter two will be in Moscow tomorrow.   In Germany, the Munich Security Conference is meeting.  NATO is still claiming that "hundreds and hundreds" of Russian Federation soldiers are operating in Novorussia.  While some US officials speak of sending "lethal aid" to the junta, others seem to oppose it.

What does that all tell you?

Me - it tells me that this is the PERFECT opportunity for the kind of false flag massacres NATO and the US are so good at.  That is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing the Bosnian Serbs, that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing all of Serbia and that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing Libya.

Tomorrow, such an attack will be very easy to organize.  Just send a group of men to post a Claymore mine anywhere along the convoy's route, plant a 152mm shell with a remote under the road where the bus will collect the refugees, pay some patsy to hide in the ditch with an RPG, or use a regular Grad strike at any time - and, voilà, you will have exactly the kind of atrocity which was used to justify all the previous wars of the "Empire of Kindness".

Except that this time around, the goal will not be to bomb or invade Novorussia (that is something the US/NATO simply cannot do), but to create the kind if hysteria which might make it possible to save the junta forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron.  That, at least, could be the plan.  Also, if a massacre happens at the evacuation of refugees, then this will "prove" that the Novorussians don't care about civilians and create a "Sarajavo-like" situation in which the surrounded force gets to shoot as much as it wants while the surrounding force is crucified by the imperial propaganda for every shell fired.

I sure hope that I am wrong, but I won't breathe normally again until tomorrow evening because if no false flag happens tomorrow this will be a real miracle.

The Saker