Category Archives: Global PMI

7/5/20: BRIC Composite PMIs: Global Economy in a Free Fall

With Russia and China data finally in, here are the full updated BRIC PMIs for April (note: manufacturing has been covered in more details here:

Sharp drop in Manufacturing PMIs in April, compared to 1Q 2020, were accompanied by even more spectacular declines in Services PMIs:

Across the BRICs, Services PMI fell from 44.9 in 1Q 2020 to 30.6 in April. The two readings represent the lowest and the second lowest readings in quarterly PMIs in history of the series (since 1Q 2006).

Brazil Services PMI sunk from already-contractionary 45.9 in 1Q 2020 to 27.4 in April. Russia saw its Services PMI falling from 47.7 in 1Q 2020 to 12.2 in April, with the swing of -35.5 points in one go. India, however, went into an even worse collapse, with its Services PMI falling from 54.1 to 5.4. Indian economy should be contracting at more than 15.5 percentage points if these numbers are true.

China was a 'relative' out-performer in Services PMIs, with its index increasing from a strongly recessionary 40.4 in 1Q 2020 to 44.4 in April, signalling a moderate reduction in the rate of economic activity contraction.

In comparison, Global Services PMI stood at 24.8 in April, down from 45.5 in 1Q 2020. This means that two of the BRIC economies, Russia and India, are both underperforming Global PMI in the services sector.

As the result of the extreme changes in the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, BRICS composite PMIs have fallen sharply off their 1Q 2020 levels:

Global Composite PMI fell from 45.8 in 1Q 2020 to 26.5 in April, signalling worsening of the global recession. India matched Global Composite PMI reading in April, showing a fall from 46.9 in 1Q 2020 to 26.5 in April. China outperformed the Global Composite, with its Composite PMI rising from 42.0 to 47.6, even though April reading remains recessionary. Russian Composite PMI fell through the floor, declining from the recessionary 47.7 in 1Q 2020 to a depression-level 13.9 in April. India performed even worse, with its Composite PMI falling from growth-supportive 54.8 in 1Q 2020 to an unprecedented 7.2 in April.

Overall, movements in PMIs in March-April 2020 have been extreme. So extreme, I had to re-scale the charts and double-check the numbers, especially in the case of Russia and India.

4/5/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: April

Coronavirus pandemic has finally bitted deeply into the BRICs economic activity data, with April 2020 manufacturing PMIs coming in sharp down:

Combined, GDP-weighted average Manufacturing PMI for Brazil, Russia, India and China came in at 41.4 in April 2020, down from 49.1 in 1Q 2020 and 51.2 in 4Q 2019. Sharp declines in Brazil Manufacturing PMI (down to 36.0 in April, compared to 50.6 in 1Q 2020), Russia (down from an already-recessionary 47.9 in 1Q 2020 to 31.3 in April), and India (collapsing from 53.9 in 1Q 2020 to 27.4 in April) were also not helped by the continued weakness in China (1Q 2020 PMI was 47.2, albeit March 2020 reading was an encouraging 50.1, down to 49.4 in April). So far, the first month of 2Q 2020 shows no positive indicators for Manufacturing sectors across all BRICs.

However, even with this woeful performance, BRICs managed to post higher PMI (slower decline in the economic activity) than the Global economy. Global Manufacturing PMI in April sunk to 39.8 from 48.4 in 1Q 2020 - a drop of 8.6 points, against BRIC Manufacturing PMI sinking from 49.1 to 41.4 - a drop of 7.8 points.

9/3/20: BRIC PMIs 1Q 2020: The Test of Covid2019

BRIC PMIs for February 2020 are out and showing massive strains of #COVID2019 on Chinese economy and the twin supply and demand shocks impact on the Global economy:

Starting with Manufacturing:

India is the only BRIC economy that provided strong support to the upside for Global Manufacturing PMI, with India 1Q 2020 Manufacturing PMI reading so far at 54.9, the strongest since 2Q 2012. Brazil Manufacturing PMI was at 51.7 - marking a moderately strong expansion - roughly in line with 51.8 ad 51.9 for 4Q 2019 and 3Q 2019, respectively. In contrast, Russian Manufacturing PMI continued to show contracting sector activity at 48.1, marking the third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Last time Russian Manufacturing reported cautiously positive PMIs was in 1Q 2019.

The real story, however, was Chinese Manufacturing PMI. Thanks to Corona Virus, PMI fell to 45.7 over January-February 2020, with February reading of 40.3 being a complete disaster. The quarterly average is now at it lowest reading since 1Q 2009 when it was at 44.0 and is likely to tank further in March.

Thus, BRIC Manufacturing PMI sat at an abysmal 48.6 reading in 1Q 2020 based on January-February data, the lowest reading since 4Q 2015 and notch below 48.8 reading for Global Manufacturing PMI.

Services PMIs showed the same dynamics as Manufacturing. Again, India led to the upside at 54.9, and Brazil followed at 51.6. Russia remained in solid growth territory, however, in the sector with 1Q 2020 PMI reading at 53.1. China tanked: Chinese services PMI fell to 39.2 in 1Q 2020, dragging the BRIC Services PMI to 45.6 in 1Q 2020, down from 52.3 in 4Q 2019. This is lowest BRIC Services PMI reading on record (note: I use GDP weights to compute BRIC PMIs). Global Services PMI was at 49.9.

Composite PMIs traced the patterns described above for Services and Manufacturing. India Composite PMI was at 57.0 the strongest since 1Q 2011. Brazil Composite PMI was at 51.6, basically unchanged on 4Q 2019 reading of 51.5. Russia Composite Index was at 51.8, down from 4Q 2019 reading of 52.7. China Composite PMI fell to 39.7, its lowest reading on record. Global Composite PMI was at 49.15.

Once again, these readings to-date are impact benchmarks for Corona Virus pandemic shock to the global economy, since the data does not cover the massive spread of contagion from China to other economies which happened in March. The next update, due in early April, should be brutal, as COVID19 bites across the broader global economy.

2/3/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: February 2020

A quick post: Manufacturing PMIs are out for the BRIC economies and, unsurprisingly, things are tanking in China and remain seriously under pressure in Russia:

This is the first snapshot of the effects of Coronavirus #COVID19 #CoronaOutbreak on Chinese top-level economic activity figures. The data plotted above is quarter-based averages of the monthly indicator published by Markit. The BRIC quarterly index is computed by me using relative economy size weights for each BRIC economy. In the preceding 3 quarters, BRICs led global manufacturing activity. In 1Q 2020 so far, the BRIC economies as a group have been a drag on global growth.

7/1/20: BRIC Composite PMIs 4Q 2019

Composite Global economic activity, as measured by Composite PMI has slowed down markedly in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2018, average Composite Global PMI (using quarterly averages) stood at 53.6. This fell back to 51.7 in 2019. In 4Q 2019, average Global Composite activity index stood at 51.3, virtually unchanged on 51.4 in 3Q 2019. Overall, Global Composite PMI has now declined in 7 consecutive quarters. 

This weakness in the Global economic activity is traceable also to BRIC economies.

Brazil’s Composite PMI has fallen from 52.0 in 3Q 2019 to 51.5 in 4Q 2019. Things did improve, however, on the annual average basis, 2018 Composite PMI was at 49.6, and in 2019 the same index averaged 51.4. 

Russia Composite PMI has moved up markedly in 4Q 2019, thanks to booming reading for Services PMI. Russia Composite index rose to 52.7 in 4Q 2019 from 51.0 in 3Q 2019. reaching its highest level in 3 quarters. However, even this robust reading was not enough to move the annual average for 2019 (52.3) to the levels seen in 2018 (54.1). In other words, overall economic activity, as signaled by PMIs, has been slowing in 2019 compared to 2018.

China Composite PMI stood at 52.6 in 4Q 2019, up on 51.5 in 3Q 2019, rising to the highest level in 7 consecutive quarters. However, 2019 average reading was only 51.7 compared to 2018 reading of 52.2, indicating that a pick up in the Chinese economy growth indicators in 4Q 2019 was contrasted by weaker growth over 2019 overall. 

India Composite PMI remained statistically unchanged in 3Q 2019 (52.1) and 4Q 2019 (52.0). On the annual average basis, 2018 reading of 52.5 was marginally higher than 2019 reading o 52.2. 

In 4Q 2019, all BRIC economies have outperformed Global Composite PMI indicator, although Brazil was basically only a notch above the Global Composite PMI average. In 2019 as a whole, China, Russia and India all outperformed Global Composite index activity, with Brazil trailing behind.