Category Archives: asset bubble

7/4/18: Markets Message Indicator: Ouuuuch… it hurts


An interesting chart from the VUCA family, courtesy of @Business:


'Markets Message Indicator', created by Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, takes 5 different data ratios: stock market relative performance compared to the bond market, cyclical stocks performance relative to defensive stocks, corporate bond spreads, the copper-to-gold price ratio, and a U.S. dollar index. The idea is to capture broad stress build up across a range of markets and asset classes, or, in VUCA terms - tallying up stress on all financial roads that investors my use to escape pressure in one of the asset markets.

Bloomberg runs some analysis of these five components here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/paulsen-says-proceed-with-caution-across-many-asset-classes. And it is a scary read through the charts. But...

... the real kicker comes from looking back at the chart above. The red oval puts emphasis on the most recent market correction, the downturn and increased volatility that shattered the myth of the Goldilocks Markets. And it barely makes a splash in drawing down the excess stress built across the 'Markets Message Indicator'.

Now, that is a scary thought.

14/10/17: Happy Times in the Rational Markets


Two charts, both courtesy of Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner:



In simple terms, combined value of bond and stock markets is currently at around USD137 trillion or 179% of global GDP. Put slightly differently, that is 263% of global private sector GDP. There is no rational model on Earth that can explain these valuations. 

Since the start of this year, the two markets gained roughly USD15 trillion in value, just as the global economy is now forecast to gain USD3.93 trillion in GDP over the full year 2017. Based on the latest IMF forecasts, the first 9.5 months of stock markets and bonds markets appreciation are equivalent to to total global GDP growth for 2017, 2018, 2019 and a quarter of 2020. That is: nine and a half months of 'no bubbles anywhere' financial growth add up to thirty nine months of real economic activity.

Happy times, all.

9/9/15: MSCI World EV/EBITDA ratio: Happy Bubbly


In the lightness of being inhabited by the world's investors, no valuation is a bubble, until it is officially declared to not be a bubble. And so it has been since the start of the year, just as EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value ratio to Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) ratio of MSCI World Index for 23 Developed Markets economies peaked at levels ahead of all previously recorded ones:

Source: @zerohedge

But never mind, for that promised growth rebound is just around the corner... where it has been for the last seven and a half years... just one period ahead forecast from today...

Note: h/t and thanks to Rouben Indjikian for spotting EBITDA definition missing reference to interest.