Category Archives: VUCA

6/2/21: Longer Trends in Economic Uncertainty


Quite dramatic trends in terms of rising economic uncertainty over the last 21 years:

And, not surprisingly, the rise of uncertainty in Europe, the U.S., and globally pre-dates the Covid19 pandemic. In fact, Europe has been experiencing dramatically elevated uncertainty levels since the start of the Euro area crisis, while the U.S. saw a virtually exponential rise in uncertainty from 2017 on. Global measures of uncertainty have been running high through 2016 and rose dramatically thereafter. 

While amelioration in the Covid19 pandemic dynamics is likely to lower the levels and the volatility of the uncertainty in global economic systems, it is highly unlikely to return us to the pre-Global Financial Crisis state of affairs.

2/11/20: U.S. Public Health Systems Are Going to Continue Failing After the COVID19

Pre-conditions: amidst ageing population and declining life expectancy, both political parties' platforms effectively represent extension of the status quo model of healthcare provision.

Question: can the U.S. actually sustain any semblance of or pretence at having a functioning healthcare system, given the expected trajectory of demand for healthcare services?

Answer: not a chance:

Source of the chart: McKinsey (not Communists who support nationalised health).

26/10/20: ifo Institute: German Economic Conditions Deteriorated in October

ifo Institute's latest Business Climate survey data for Germany is pointing to continued weakness in the recovery momentum:

Notably, all four sectors covered remain under water:

Current conditions are deteriorating month-on-month in two sectors, expectations have deteriorated in all four sectors.