Category Archives: national debt

Are Americans Getting Real Value from Biden’s Debt-Fueled Spending?

Friday, 20 January 2023 marked the second anniversary of President Biden's tenure in the White House. On that day, the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding reached $31,454,980,005,742.40. The only reason it isn't higher is because the U.S. Treasury Department hit the nation's statutory debt ceiling the day before.

But that's not the real story. The more important story is the growth of the U.S. national debt during the last two years. That debt has increased by $3,695,343,467,324.62 since 20 January 2021.

Large numbers like that can be difficult to grasp, so let's bring them down to a more human scale. If you divided the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding equally among every household in the U.S. two years ago, each would be responsible for paying the U.S. government's creditors $216,111. Two years later, the national debt burden per household has grown to $239,745. The increase per household is $23,634, or 10.9%, which of course, would be on top of whatever other debt each household has.

That increase is the equivalent of buying 131,202,000 American households a brand new 2023 Suburu Impreza! More on that metaphor in a bit....

We've visualized the growth of the U.S. national debt during the Biden era in the following chart. In the chart, we've also identified the U.S. government's creditors by major category:

Here's the big question. Would American households be better off if President Biden actually did buy each a brand new Suburu Impreza instead of what he actually bought with all that newly borrowed money?

Or rather, did Americans get anything of real value to show from President Biden's debt-fueled spending and what it has wrought?

References

U.S. Census Bureau. Historical Households Tables. Table HH-1. Households by Type: 1940 to Present. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 10 November 2022. Accessed 23 January 2023.

U.S. Treasury Department. Debt to the Penny. [Online Database]. 20 January 2023. Accessed 23 January 2023.

U.S. Treasury Department. Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities. [Online Data Text File]. 18 January 2023. Accessed 23 January 2023.

U.S. Treasury Department. Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2022 Through December 31, 2022. [PDF Document]. 12 January 2023. Accessed 23 January 2023.

September 2022 Snapshot of Who Owns the U.S. National Debt

Do you remember 2021? Let's take a moment for a recap. When Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States on 20 January 2021, the U.S. national debt stood at $27.76 trillion. Just over eight months later, at the end of the U.S. government's 2021 fiscal year, the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding had risen to $28.43 trillion.

And now, one year after that, the U.S. national debt has risen to $30.93 trillion through the end of the U.S. government's 2022 fiscal year. That's an increase of $2.5 trillion over the past year and an increase of $3.17 trillion during President Biden's tenure in office.

To whom does the U.S. government owe all that money?

The following chart illustrates who the U.S. government's biggest creditors are as of the end of the U.S. government's 2022 fiscal year along with the portion of the national debt they are owed.

To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money? September 2022 First Estimate

The Overall Picture

The U.S. Federal Reserve is once again Uncle Sam's single largest creditor, accounting for 18.3% of the entire U.S. government's national debt. The Fed's share of the total public debt outstanding has decreased from 19.1% a year ago, mainly as the Federal Reserve has all but stopped underwriting the U.S. government's new spending. Instead, since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates in a campaign to slow the rise of inflation that was unleashed by President Biden's spending.

With the Fed having raised interest rates above the near-zero level they were at when President Biden was sworn into office, U.S. individuals and institutions (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) have picked up most of the slack now that loaning money to Uncle Sam has become more worthwhile with higher interest rates. The share owned by this category of major national debt holders has increased from 37.7% to 42.1%.

Meanwhile, the share of the U.S. government's national debt owed to Social Security has continued falling from 9.2% to 8.9%. That's because Social Security has been running in the red since 2009, forcing its Old Age and Survivors' Insurance Trust Fund to sell off U.S. treasuries it accumulated when it was operating in the black so it can keep paying out benefits at promised levels. Social Security's share of the U.S. national debt is projected to decline to 0% in 2034. After that happens, Social Security benefits will be reduced by somewhere between 20-25% as promised under current law.

The retirement trust funds for the U.S. government's military and civilian employees together account for 6.6% of the total U.S. national debt, down from 7.1% in 2021.

Foreign entities collectively hold 24.3% of the total debt liabilities issued by the U.S. government, down from the share of 26.6% they held at the end of the U.S. government's 2021 fiscal year. Of the portion of the national debt owed to foreign-based institutions, Japan continues to hold the greatest share at 3.9% of the U.S. national debt based on preliminary estimates, down from its 2021 share of 4.6%. China comes in second holding a share of 3.8%, falling from a share of 4.6% in 2021. Both countries have been selling off their holdings of U.S. government-issued debt securities to keep their currencies from losing too much value with respect to the U.S. dollar.

The international banking centers of Belgium, Ireland, and Luxembourg saw their share of the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding dip from 3.0% to 2.8%, while the United Kingdom saw its share slightly rise from 2.0% to 2.1%. Brazil and the remaining foreign nations saw their shares of the U.S. national debt dip year over year.

The following waterfall chart breaks down where most the money the U.S. government newly borrowed during its 2022 fiscal year came from:

Net Changes in Holdings of U.S. National Debt, FY 2022: 30 September 2021 through 30 September 2022

About the Data

These figures represent the most current information available as of 18 October 2022, which for the total public debt outstanding is fully current through 20 January 2022. The Federal Reserve's holdings is current through 28 September 2022, data on U.S. government entity holdings is current through September 2022, and data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through August 2022 that were released on 18 October 2022.

January 2022 Snapshot of Who Owns the U.S. National Debt

When Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States on 20 January 2021, the U.S. national debt stood at $27.76 trillion. One year later, the total public debt outstanding of the U.S. government has ballooned by nearly $2.11 trillion (or 7.6%) to $29.87 trillion.

Perhaps a better question to ask is to whom does the U.S. government borrow owe all the money it has borrowed?

The following chart illustrates who the U.S. government's biggest creditors are as of the end of President Biden's first year in office along with the portion of the national debt they are owed.

To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money? 20 January 2022

The Overall Picture

The U.S. Federal Reserve is once again Uncle Sam's single largest creditor, accounting for 19.1% of the entire U.S. government's national debt. The Fed's share of the total public debt outstanding has grown from 16.5% a year earlier.

By contrast, the U.S. government's second largest creditor is Social Security, whose share of the ownership of the national debt dropped from 10.4% of the total to 9.2%. Social Security has been running in the red since 2009, forcing its Old Age and Survivors' Insurance Trust Fund to sell off U.S. treasuries it accumulated when it was operating in the black in order to keep paying out benefits at promised levels. Social Security's share of the U.S. national debt is projected to decline to 0% in 2034. After that happens, Social Security benefits will be reduced by somewhere between 20-25% as promised under current law.

The retirement trust funds for the U.S. government's military and civilian employees together account for 7.1% of the total U.S. national debt. After these large holdings, a diverse range of U.S. institutions, such as banks, insurance companies, independent corporations, investment firms and individuals combine to hold the largest share of money owed by the U.S. government, accounting for 38.6% of the total, down from the 40.4% share they held a year ago.

Foreign entities combine to account for holding 25.9% of the total debt liabilities issued by the U.S. government, up from the share of 25.4% they held on 20 January 2021. Of the portion of the national debt owed to foreign-based institutions, Japan now holds the greatest share at 4.5% of the U.S. national debt based on preliminary estimates, whose share is unchanged from a year earlier. China comes in second holding a share of 4.4%, which is down from 4.6% in 2021.

The international banking centers of Belgium, Ireland, and Luxembourg saw their share of the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding held steady at 3.0%, while the United Kingdom saw its share increase from 1.5% to 2.1% over the past year. Brazil and the remaining foreign nations saw their shares of the U.S. national debt dip.

President Biden's First Year in Office

As we noted, the national debt increased by $2.11 trillion in President Biden's first year in office. That amount was inflated by President Biden's American Rescue Plan Act, which we estimate accounts for $1.34 trillion or 63.5% of the increase by itself.

The following waterfall chart breaks down where most the money the U.S. government newly borrowed in President Biden's first year in office came from:

Net Changes in Holdings of U.S. National Debt, 20 January 2021 through 20 January 2022

We find the Federal Reserve loaned Uncle Sam 45% of all the net new borrowing. Foreign entities loaned the U.S. government the second largest amount at 33% of the net change, while U.S. individuals and institutions contributed the remaining 22%.

About the Data

These figures represent the most current information available as of 20 January 2022, which for the total public debt outstanding is fully current through 20 January 2022. The Federal Reserve's holdings is current through 19 January 2022, data on U.S. government entity holdings is current through December 2021, and data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through November 2021 that were published on 18 January 2022.

September 2021 Snapshot of Who Owns the U.S. National Debt

When Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States on 20 January 2021, the U.S. national debt had reached $27.8 trillion. Through the end of the U.S. government's fiscal year on 30 September 2021, the total public debt outstanding increased to $28.4 trillion.

The following chart identifies the entities who have loaned the most money to the U.S. government. The percentage shown for each indicates how big each entity's share of the U.S. national debt is as of 30 September 2021.

20 January 2021: To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money?

The values for foreign nations shown on the chart represent a first estimate because the U.S. Treasury Department's data for the amount of U.S. government-issued debt held by foreign entities only reflects its estimates through August 2021. Data through September 2021 will become available next month, which will be subject to revision before being finalized sometime in 2022.

Once again, the U.S. Federal Reserve is Uncle Sam's largest single entity creditor, outranking its former top creditor, Social Security's Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, by a widening margin. That margin is widening because Social Security is running in the red, which means it has to cash in its holdings of U.S. Treasuries to keep paying benefits to Social Security beneficiaries at promised levels.

But what is really remarkable is the extent to which the U.S. Federal Reserve is funding the U.S. government's spending above and beyond what it collects in taxes that has taken place during Joe Biden's tenure in office. Since 20 January 2021, the U.S. national debt has increased by $669.3 billion, but the U.S. Federal Reserve's holdings of U.S. government-issued debt securities has increased by $687.5 billion.

That's possible because the U.S. Federal Reserve has more than offset a net reduction of $520.4 billion in the amount of money other U.S. entities have loaned to the U.S. government during this time. At the same time, foreign entities have boosted the amount of money they've loaned to the U.S. government by $502.2 billion, which when combined with the other figures, accounts for the overall net change since 20 January 2021. Here's a visual rundown of the net national debt change math as presented using a waterfall chart:

As of the end of the U.S. government's 2021 fiscal year, the Federal Reserve had loaned nearly one out of every five dollars the U.S. government owed through the end of September 2021.

About the Data

These figures represent the most current information available as of 30 September 2021, which for the total public debt outstanding and data on U.S. government entity holdings is current through that date. The Federal Reserve's holdings is fully current through 29 September 2021. Data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through August 2020 that were published on 18 October 2021.

January 2021 Snapshot of Who Owns the U.S. National Debt

As Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States on 20 January 2021, the U.S. national debt reached $27.6 trillion. To whom did the U.S. government owe all that money on that date?

The following chart reveals the major lenders who have fed the U.S. government's spending appetites up through President Biden's inauguration day and shows the estimated share of the U.S. government's total public debt outstanding owed to each.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is Uncle Sam's largest single entity creditor, having overtaken the Social Security Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund operated by the U.S. government by a wide margin. The U.S. government owes one out of every six dollars of the U.S. national debt to the U.S.' central bank, which is overseen by an agency of the federal government.

Two other trust funds operated by the U.S. government account loaned a combined 7% of the U.S. national debt. The U.S. Civil Service Retirement Fund and the U.S. Military Retirement Fund have respectively lent 3.6% and 3.4% of the U.S. national debt to the federal government.

A diverse range of U.S. institutions, such as banks, insurance companies, independent corporations, investment firms and individuals combine to hold the largest share of money owed by the U.S. government, accounting for 40% of the total.

Foreign entities hold 25.4% of the total debt liabilities issued by the U.S. government. Of the portion of the national debt owed to foreign-based institutions, China (with Hong Kong) holds the greatest share at 4.9% of the U.S. national debt. Japan comes in second with 4.7%, followed by the international banking centers of Belgium, Ireland, and Luxembourg with a combined 3.0%. The United Kingdom holds 1.6%, while Brazil is owed 1.0% of the U.S. national debt. All the remaining nations of the world combine to hold 11.0%.

About the Data

These figures represent the most current information available as of 20 January 2021, which for the total public debt outstanding and the Federal Reserve's holdings is fully current through 20 January 2020, data on U.S. government entity holdings is current through December 2020, and data for foreign holdings is based on estimates through November 2020 that were published on 19 January 2020.