Category Archives: geopolitical complexity

5/5/20: A simple view of Globalization: some thoughts


Globalization in  retreat chart via PIIE: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/pandemic-adds-momentum-deglobalization-trend


A neat visual summary of the extent of economic openness and globalization, via trade dimension alone. The caveats here are that this only captures trade in goods & services flows (see https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/05/are-you-open/), but ignores capital flows and the extent of globalization-induced complexity within modern economic systems.

We tend to think about globalization as a mass-type measurement, where the volume or the value of flows is what matters. Alas, things are more complex. Mass measurements should be properly adjusted for risks inherent in the flows and stocks, including geopolitical risks. Imagine a flow of goods from China to the U.S. as opposed to the same volume flow of the same goods from China to Ecuador. Geopolitical risks and uncertainties, as well as non-monetary costs/values involved in the two flows are distinct. Similarly, consider a set stock of capital from the U.S. domiciled in, say, the Netherlands as opposed to, say, in Russia. Once again, even when nominal values are identical, risk-adjusted values are distinct.

In simple terms, as neat as the above chart might be, it does not even begin to reflect the VUCA/risk-indicative nature and volumes of globalization-related flows and stocks.

6/12/18: Are Younger Americans More Comfortable With a Multipolar World?


When it comes to challenging status quo heuristics, the younger generations usually pave the way. The same applies to the heuristics relating to geopolitical environment. While the older generations of Americans appear to be firmly stuck in the comfort-seeking status quo ante of 'Cold War'-linked hegemonic perception of the world around us - the basis for which is the alleged positive exceptionalism of the U.S. confronted by the negative exceptionalism of Russia and, increasingly, China, Americans of younger cohorts are starting to comprehend the reality of multipolar world we inhabit.

At least, according to the Pew Research data:

The gap between the tail generations (the Z-ers and the Boomers) is massive, and the spread within the generations is relatively more compressed for the Z-ers.

6/12/18: Are Younger Americans More Comfortable With a Multipolar World?


When it comes to challenging status quo heuristics, the younger generations usually pave the way. The same applies to the heuristics relating to geopolitical environment. While the older generations of Americans appear to be firmly stuck in the comfort-seeking status quo ante of 'Cold War'-linked hegemonic perception of the world around us - the basis for which is the alleged positive exceptionalism of the U.S. confronted by the negative exceptionalism of Russia and, increasingly, China, Americans of younger cohorts are starting to comprehend the reality of multipolar world we inhabit.

At least, according to the Pew Research data:

The gap between the tail generations (the Z-ers and the Boomers) is massive, and the spread within the generations is relatively more compressed for the Z-ers.

6/12/18: When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe’s problem is European


Europe is a sitting duck for major geopolitical risk, but the U.S. is getting there too:



And volatility surrounding the uncertainty measure is also out of line for Europe, both in levels and trends:

Just as the Global Financial Crisis in Europe was not caused by the U.S. financial meltdown, even if the latter was a major catalyst to the former, so is the current period of extreme policy anxiety and instability is not being driven by the emergence of the Trump Administration. Europe's problem seems to be European.

6/12/18: When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe’s problem is European


Europe is a sitting duck for major geopolitical risk, but the U.S. is getting there too:



And volatility surrounding the uncertainty measure is also out of line for Europe, both in levels and trends:

Just as the Global Financial Crisis in Europe was not caused by the U.S. financial meltdown, even if the latter was a major catalyst to the former, so is the current period of extreme policy anxiety and instability is not being driven by the emergence of the Trump Administration. Europe's problem seems to be European.