My column for The Currency this week covers two key long-term themes in the global economy that pre-date the pandemic and will remain in place well into 2025: the twin secular stagnations hypotheses and the changing nature of the productivity. The link to the article is here; https://thecurrency.news/articles/28224/the-economy-has-two-chronic-illnesses-and-neither-are-covid/.
That scary chart...
One, is the President in the middle of a fragile, but long-yarned for recovery. Another is the President amidst a massive economic collapse, mis-managed public health crisis, presiding over a dysfunctional administration and full of outright nastiness to anyone he dislikes, including migrants, Democrats, professionals, media, non-supporters of his agenda, etc. And they are both within 3 percentage points of each other...
Another tweet, different topic: my brief musings on the Harvard Law's Alan Dershowitz's recent invention of new doctrine in law:
Cyclicality in markets returns and political environment is an interesting and under-researched topic. Here is a great post on the subject: https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/05/trading-worst-6-months-and-presidential.html.
Euromoney and ECR are covering the story of Italian political risk, with my comments on the rise of populism in Italy and its effects on sovereign risk with respect to the Italian Government formation negotiations: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b187w50chyvhbl/risk-experts-take-flight-over-italys-political-shock