Category Archives: Bric

20/6/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating pandemic numbers for the past week for EU27 and Europe:



As the charts clearly show, 

  • Europe experienced significant declines in new cases and deaths in recent weeks, in part due to improved rates of vaccinations.
  • The third wave is now clearly behind us in both the EU27 and Europe, although European cases are remaining at much higher levels than those in the EU27. A similar pattern is evident in deaths.
  • In terms of Covid19 mortality (deaths per 1,000 cases) the rate of mortality has been effectively flat since week 45 of 2020 and is currently running at around 22 deaths per 1,000 cases in the EU27 and Europe.
While these figures show the effectiveness of vaccinations and past lockdown measures, they also present evidence for the need of more robust international efforts in sharing vaccines with countries with lower incomes. Until similar declines are evidenced globally, it is hard to make an argument that any specific region (be it Europe or North America) can be immune from the risks of the pandemic contagion from other countries. More on this risk here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/06/19621-covid19-worldwide-data.html. 

19/6/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 

With some time passing since my last update, and the rates of vaccinations ramping up globally, it is easy to forget the simple, but devastating fact: we are still in a global pandemic. Here are the latest weekly totals for new cases and new deaths, worldwide:



Just as the charts show,
  • New cases have fallen significantly from the pandemic peak (Wave 4), but remain above the prior trough between Waves 3 and 4. 
  • New deaths recorded are still at extremely high levels, and showing an uptick week-on-week in the latest data.
Meanwhile, mortality of new Covid19 cases is stubbornly at the levels observed over the last two waves of the pandemic:


Put differently, the 'rich' world is getting vaccinated (albeit with some variation in the rates), while the emerging markets and middle-income economies remain well behind on vaccinations curve. Which means there is continued threat of a global pandemic re-igniting and the looming uncertainty over the new variants emerging.

So much for the 'reopening' future...

9/5/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 Updating data for BRIICS for Covid19 pandemic through Week 17 of 2021 (current week):


Almost half of all cumulated cases within the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) group are now in India (above) and almost half of all deaths are in Brazil (below).


The pandemic dynamics have turned decisively in recent weeks: in terms of new cases, India dominates the trend up, with all other BRIICS showing amelioration in the pandemic:


Similarly, for we weekly death counts:

China data remains utterly unbelievable and hard to trust.

Summary table of recent developments:


India's pandemic dynamics are shocking, horrific and show no signs of abating. This is a humanitarian disaster that requires help from the rest of the world - help that has been coming in too-little and too-late.


9/5/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating graphs for Europe and EU27 pandemic data through week 17 of 2021:


Some good news with a shade of a reality check:
  • New cases are off their Wave 3 highs, solidly so
  • Current case counts are still above Wave 2 trough and well ahead of where they were at the end of Summer 2020.
Similar, but a bit more benign trend in weekly death counts:


Good news 'part 3': mortality rates are declining, again:


While the progress on vaccinations across Europe has been less impressive than desired, it now appears that two factors are driving the end of the Wave 3 of this pandemic:

  1. Vaccinations roll-outs, and
  2. Cumulated effects of recent (and in some countries still ongoing) restrictions.
Let's hope these trends remain persistent in weeks ahead and the new variants do not show up with resistance to vaccinations.