Category Archives: MAGA

4/12/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic to-date:

  • The U.S. retains higher death rate per 1 million population (844.6), than the EU27 (624.4). 
  • Current U.S. death rate per capita is 35% above the EU27, though this gap is still closing (it was 42% a week ago).
  • Gross counts of deaths in the U.S. >> the EU27 over 12/07 - 1/12.  This was reversed on 2/12, with total EU27 deaths currently at 278,914 vs the U.S. 276,316. 
  • Adjusting deaths to account for a 1 week lag in the onset of pandemic in the U.S., relative to the EU27, current U.S. deaths are 21,435 above those in the EU27
  • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. deaths are 77,048 above those in the EU27.
  • While the EU27 led the U.S. in new deaths and case counts through 20/11, since then, the U.S. has retaken the lead in new cases counts. 
  • Daily deaths counts in the U.S. are now expected to start exceeding those in the EU27 once again.

Starting with 20/11/2020, the U.S. once again overtaken the EU27 in the number of daily reported cases, based on 7-days moving average:


The data above is yet to reflect massive potential contagion event of Thanksgiving travel in the U.S. and the related movements of students from and back to the colleges and universities that allowed in-person teaching in the Fall 2020 semester.

Shorter lags between contagion and diagnosis of COVID19 cases imply longer lags between new cases arrivals and hospitalisations, which in turn further elongates the lags between new cases detection and associated deaths counts. This is clearly evident from comparing the following figure dynamics with prior figure dynamics:

Put differently, current better performance by the U.S. compared to the EU27 in the second wave of the pandemic in terms of daily deaths counts is unlikely to remain for much longer. EU27 daily deaths trend appears to have peaked about a week ago, while the U.S. deaths trend remains upward-running. 

Little comfort for the wicked... right? 


As the chart above shows, even with more favourable deaths dynamics during the current wave of the pandemic, the U.S. deaths per capita remain horrifically above those in the EU27. Worse, over the last four days, we are seeing some tentative signs that the EU27 daily deaths counts might be moderating. Meanwhile, the opposite is taking place in the U.S.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

Comparatives for the pandemic development across the EU27 vs U.S.:

Thanks to an absolutely savage second wave of the pandemic, EU27 is now closing the gap with the U.S. in terms of total deaths, both in absolute terms and in per capita terms:


  • Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continued to be worse than that for the EU27 until early October.
  • EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 308 per 1 million prior to August 2, but has been rising once again since then (498.1 currently).
  • U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (760.1 currently).
  • The U.S. & EU27 are in 3rd (U.S.) and 2nd (EU27) waves of infections. Since Oct 1st, EU27 cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 3 days & deaths on all but 16 days
The trends are horrifying, albeit in the EU27 we are now seeing potential decline in cases from the second peak. The U.S. appears to remain on the increasing trendline in terms of new cases: 


As the U.S. 3rd wave of new cases is blowing up, and the EU27 2nd wave appears to be subsiding, we are likely to see deaths accelerating once again in the U.S. and falling in the EU27, so the deaths gap between the U.S. and the EU27 is likely to revert back growing excess U.S. deaths.

  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. 
  • Current excess gap is at +46,983, which is down on peak excess deaths gap of 68,152 attained a month ago. 
  • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 113,081. Put differently, 113,081 Americans would have been alive today were the U.S. responses to the pandemic similar to those adopted by the EU27.

Summary statistics really paint an awful picture: 
  • November has been thee worst month so far in this entire pandemic in terms of daily cases increases for both the EU27 and the U.S. 
  • In terms of deaths counts, the U.S. is still lagging behind the EU27, but November to-date is now ranks as the second worst month in daily deaths counts in the U.S. and the worst month in the EU27.


For more EU27 - U.S. comparatives, including comparatives to other countries, see: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/181120-covid19-update-countries-with.html. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for data through November 3:



  • The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 707.7
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 396.8
  • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 78 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now closing (it was 86% a week ago).
  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
    • Current excess gap is at +65,585. 
    • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 123,449. 
  • The U.S. & the EU27 are in 2nd waves of infections. October 1st to-date, EU27 daily cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 2 days & deaths on 18 occasions
Across the board:
  • EU27 second wave is savage in terms of new cases counts (more than four times the rate of the peak wave 1) and deaths counts are climbing up at a fast pace. On the current trajectory (note: this is not a formal forecast, but a point of warning), the EU27 deaths will be testing 3,000 per day counts mark within this month. 
  • U.S. is in a third or a second wave of the pandemic - depending on how one counts the 'waves' - in terms of new cases, but is yet to post consistent uptick in deaths. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, deaths counts have also ticked up. Given that new cases in the U.S. are currently running at above thee last wave peak levels, we can expect continued increases in daily deaths counts too, albeit with longer lag on account of earlier detections and younger demographics of new cases. 

Here are some really shameful stats, positioning EU27 and U.S. performance in the context of all countries with > 100,000 cases:


Out of 51 countries with >100,000 cases + EU27, 
  • The U.S. is ranked 6th worst in terms of cases per capita, 10th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 24th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 8th worst in the world.
  • The EU27 is ranked 20h worst in terms of cases per capita, 19th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 20th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 20th worst in the world.
Peer-comparatives:



27/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:




Key stats:
  • The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
    • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).
  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +67,604. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,869. 
  • The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 11 occasions
Couple of summary tables:

I covered a recent study from the Columbia University on U.S. excess deaths here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/251020-covid19-us-excess-deaths-are.html. 



25/10/20: COVID19: U.S. Excess Deaths are 130,000 at a lower end of estimates

I have been running EU vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic dynamics for some time now, and as those reading this blog would know,  some months ago I added an estimate - based on mortality figures - of the excess U.S. deaths compared to the EU27. These currently - by my estimate - stand at 114,621 (see latest estimate here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). 

My estimate is crude. It is based on timings, population size and mortality rate adjustments. 

A more accurate recent estimate has been provided by the Columbia University study (https://resiliencesystem.org/columbia-university-says-trump-could-have-avoided-over-130000-covid-19-deaths-more-robust-pandemic) that puts the number at 130,000-210,000 'avoidable deaths'.  That is some range, of course. Per study: "If "the U.S. had followed Canadian policies and protocols, there might have only been 85,192 U.S. deaths – making more than 132,500 American deaths 'avoidable,'" the authors wrote. "If the U.S. response had mirrored that of Germany, the U.S. may have only had 38,457 deaths – leaving 179,260 avoidable deaths."

One way or the other, there are at least 100,000+ Americans dead because of the completely shambolic public health system and policy responses by the current Federal and State leaderships in the U.S. 

Columbia study seems to nail some of these factors: "The country's disproportionate death toll stems from delayed federal action, an insufficient testing regimen, a lack of consistent mask-wearing guidance, and the failure of top officials, notably Trump, to model best practices". Alas, predictably (mythology of the American culture), it misses the elephant in the room: the U.S. healthcare system itself. American approach to distributing access to healthcare based on private insurance (plus Medicare and Medicaid) is leaving tens of millions of Americans outside the basic safety net. Those without insurance as well as countless more with the atrociously large deductibles and co-pays are too afraid to present themselves to the hospitals designed to bankrupt people of modest means to seek early support and help. It matters little how much the U.S. authorities test the public (and, yes, tests are highly rationed, still, despite all the bluster from the White House), if people do not seek help in fear of being destroyed financially. 

In 2020, the average annual deductible for single, individual coverage is $4,364 and $8,439 for family coverage. Co-pay normally ranges 10-40% of the bill, though it is more complicated, since there are various caps and step-downs in co-payments. (https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/individual-and-family/how-much-does-individual-health-insurance-cost#:~:text=Deductibles%20and%20cost%2Dsharing%20expenses,and%20%248%2C439%20for%20family%20coverage.)

The typical American household has an average of $8,863 in  a bank or credit union account. There are serious variations by age and type of household, with couples 34 and younger, couples without children have an average of $4,727 in savings, while single people without children have an average of $2,729 in savings. Couples with children between the age of 35 and 44 have an average of $10,399, couples aged 45-54 with children average $15,589. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/how-much-money-americans-have-in-their-savings-accounts-at-every-age.html)

Meanwhile, the median charge for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a recent study. This was the median billed to people without insurance or those who were forced to be treated out of network. The highest average allowed amount paid to the provider under an insurance plan was $24,012 for people aged 51 to 60 and, at its lowest, $17,094 for people above age 70. (https://www.thehealthcareloop.com/hospitalized-care-for-covid-19-averages-34662-to-45683-varying-by-age/) 

So a person visit for COVID19 treatment, counting lost wages, would wipe out between 1/2 and all of the savings held by average household. Contagion within the family would be a near insolvency event.

Anyone surprised American system is killing the U.S. citizens and residents?