Category Archives: Predators and the environment

We chose not to fly


It's about freaking time. In my humble opinion, the most harmful climate change deniers are not the knuckle draggers who can bring themselves into believing that nothing is happening and this is one giant hoax. Rather, it's the serious scientists who claim that greenhouse gasses are about to destroy the ecosphere and then fly 100,000 miles a year to conferences where they back-slap with their buds while peddling their wisdom. NO ONE will ever live down such behavior, such hypocrisy.

Here are three people who have decided to set a better example. Although reducing one's travel from 100k to 30k isn't all that much of an improvement. Perhaps some day before the Greenland ice sheet melts, maybe these folks will realize that if they have anything important to say, they can do it by videoconferencing. Well, we can hope.

We study the climate. We chose not to fly to D.C. for a conference on it.

Reducing our own carbon footprints won’t stop climate change. But every bit of urgency helps.

By Peter Kalmus, Kim Cobb, and David M. Romps December 10, 2018

This week, more than 20,000 Earth and planetary scientists from all over the world are converging on Washington for the annual gathering of the American Geophysical Union. They come together to celebrate the wonder of our planet and to swap clues about the evolution of the Earth system from the deep past to the distant future. It is a treasured geo-family reunion. But to avoid the carbon-dioxide emissions from flying, one of us will travel to Washington by train, and two of us have decided not to attend.

As Earth scientists, we understand the urgency of climate change better than anyone. Our findings are inscribed in international and national reports dating back several decades, each more urgent than the last. The most recent report points out that humanity must be halfway to a 100 percent carbon-free economy within a decade if we are to avoid the most devastating climate effects.

We grieve for the lives lost to record-breaking storms and wildfires, for the ongoing deterioration of Earth’s coral reefs, for our children’s future in a hot, unstable world. For us and for many other Earth scientists, dramatically reducing our personal carbon footprint has become a moral imperative and a lifelong pursuit.

When we first assessed our own carbon footprints, we found air travel to be the largest culprit, constituting roughly three-quarters of the total. And we are not alone. Most academics fly as a core part of our jobs; there are conferences to attend, proposals to review on panels, invited lectures to give, collaborations to advance, field data to collect.

Unfortunately, flying is extremely carbon-intensive. One round-trip flight between Los Angeles and London emits three metric tons of carbon dioxide. For context, the average citizen of China generates five tons of CO2 per year. In Bangladesh, that number falls to one ton per year, equivalent to the emissions from a typical round-trip flight within the United States. To us, these data make it clear that an addiction to air travel is inconsistent with a stable climate. So we made the difficult decision to fly less — a lot less.

We started on this journey at different times and have settled on different paths toward our shared goal. In each case, we struggled with an increasing awareness that the climate damage from our flight emissions far outweighed the tangible benefits of most scientific meetings. In response, two of us have gone from flying 100,000 miles per year to flying less than 30,000, and one of us has not flown in years.

In our personal commitments to fly less, we are bucking cultural norms in Earth science, and in academia more generally. When one of us recently chose not to fly across the country to receive an award for climate research, the decision generated mixed reactions among fellow climate scientists. In other instances, invited talks were rescinded when we requested to present remotely to save carbon emissions. We have chosen to bear the professional costs of reduced networking opportunities and less visibility for our work, and, in many cases, the personal costs of missed family vacations to far-flung destinations.

We know that these individual choices to fly less will not “save the planet.” To address climate change on the rapid time scale outlined in the recent climate assessments, collective steps such as adopting a carbon fee at the federal level and enhancing renewable portfolio standards at the state level, among others, will be essential.

However, collective action requires collective urgency. Although we fly less primarily to reduce our emissions, we also recognize that individual action shifts norms and can catalyze collective action, including institutional change at our universities and professional societies.

We envision a future in which scientists can attend conferences remotely, engaging with their colleagues during online presentations and grabbing a virtual coffee with that long-lost mentor. While there will certainly be growing pains, we see this as an opportunity to create more inclusive collaborative meeting models, allowing those without travel funding or with family-care responsibilities to participate, for example. With thoughtful design and iteration, zero-carbon 21st-century meeting models could increase connectivity and productivity for scientists and nonscientists alike.

Each year, as climate impacts worsen and the timeline for action shrinks, a growing number of Earth scientists and other academics are choosing to fly less. We encourage our universities and professional societies to invest in the technical infrastructure and to develop the online meeting models that will accelerate our shift away from frequent flying as a professional necessity.

In the meantime, we are content to go by ground — or not at all. more

We chose not to fly


It's about freaking time. In my humble opinion, the most harmful climate change deniers are not the knuckle draggers who can bring themselves into believing that nothing is happening and this is one giant hoax. Rather, it's the serious scientists who claim that greenhouse gasses are about to destroy the ecosphere and then fly 100,000 miles a year to conferences where they back-slap with their buds while peddling their wisdom. NO ONE will ever live down such behavior, such hypocrisy.

Here are three people who have decided to set a better example. Although reducing one's travel from 100k to 30k isn't all that much of an improvement. Perhaps some day before the Greenland ice sheet melts, maybe these folks will realize that if they have anything important to say, they can do it by videoconferencing. Well, we can hope.

We study the climate. We chose not to fly to D.C. for a conference on it.

Reducing our own carbon footprints won’t stop climate change. But every bit of urgency helps.

By Peter Kalmus, Kim Cobb, and David M. Romps December 10, 2018

This week, more than 20,000 Earth and planetary scientists from all over the world are converging on Washington for the annual gathering of the American Geophysical Union. They come together to celebrate the wonder of our planet and to swap clues about the evolution of the Earth system from the deep past to the distant future. It is a treasured geo-family reunion. But to avoid the carbon-dioxide emissions from flying, one of us will travel to Washington by train, and two of us have decided not to attend.

As Earth scientists, we understand the urgency of climate change better than anyone. Our findings are inscribed in international and national reports dating back several decades, each more urgent than the last. The most recent report points out that humanity must be halfway to a 100 percent carbon-free economy within a decade if we are to avoid the most devastating climate effects.

We grieve for the lives lost to record-breaking storms and wildfires, for the ongoing deterioration of Earth’s coral reefs, for our children’s future in a hot, unstable world. For us and for many other Earth scientists, dramatically reducing our personal carbon footprint has become a moral imperative and a lifelong pursuit.

When we first assessed our own carbon footprints, we found air travel to be the largest culprit, constituting roughly three-quarters of the total. And we are not alone. Most academics fly as a core part of our jobs; there are conferences to attend, proposals to review on panels, invited lectures to give, collaborations to advance, field data to collect.

Unfortunately, flying is extremely carbon-intensive. One round-trip flight between Los Angeles and London emits three metric tons of carbon dioxide. For context, the average citizen of China generates five tons of CO2 per year. In Bangladesh, that number falls to one ton per year, equivalent to the emissions from a typical round-trip flight within the United States. To us, these data make it clear that an addiction to air travel is inconsistent with a stable climate. So we made the difficult decision to fly less — a lot less.

We started on this journey at different times and have settled on different paths toward our shared goal. In each case, we struggled with an increasing awareness that the climate damage from our flight emissions far outweighed the tangible benefits of most scientific meetings. In response, two of us have gone from flying 100,000 miles per year to flying less than 30,000, and one of us has not flown in years.

In our personal commitments to fly less, we are bucking cultural norms in Earth science, and in academia more generally. When one of us recently chose not to fly across the country to receive an award for climate research, the decision generated mixed reactions among fellow climate scientists. In other instances, invited talks were rescinded when we requested to present remotely to save carbon emissions. We have chosen to bear the professional costs of reduced networking opportunities and less visibility for our work, and, in many cases, the personal costs of missed family vacations to far-flung destinations.

We know that these individual choices to fly less will not “save the planet.” To address climate change on the rapid time scale outlined in the recent climate assessments, collective steps such as adopting a carbon fee at the federal level and enhancing renewable portfolio standards at the state level, among others, will be essential.

However, collective action requires collective urgency. Although we fly less primarily to reduce our emissions, we also recognize that individual action shifts norms and can catalyze collective action, including institutional change at our universities and professional societies.

We envision a future in which scientists can attend conferences remotely, engaging with their colleagues during online presentations and grabbing a virtual coffee with that long-lost mentor. While there will certainly be growing pains, we see this as an opportunity to create more inclusive collaborative meeting models, allowing those without travel funding or with family-care responsibilities to participate, for example. With thoughtful design and iteration, zero-carbon 21st-century meeting models could increase connectivity and productivity for scientists and nonscientists alike.

Each year, as climate impacts worsen and the timeline for action shrinks, a growing number of Earth scientists and other academics are choosing to fly less. We encourage our universities and professional societies to invest in the technical infrastructure and to develop the online meeting models that will accelerate our shift away from frequent flying as a professional necessity.

In the meantime, we are content to go by ground — or not at all. more

Oil bites back


Well, the laws of oilfield "gravity" are finally kicking back in. They are:
  1. In spite of small motor-efficiency gains, the demand for oil continues to soar. Those people in China and India who finally got a nice car are not about to park it in the front yard and look at it.
  2. It has been a long time since the discovery of a major oil field. At some point, maybe soon, demand will significantly outstrip supplies. The scramble will be on.
  3. Fracking was a diversion. It cannot succeed because the energy gathered through fracking barely exceeds the energy it takes to frack. It's not easy to rearrange underground rock formations.
  4. The sanctions on Iran may prove a significant boost to their national prospects. Keep it in the ground. By the time sanctions are lifted, the price of oil may have doubled or more. In real economic terms, the price of oil can only go up.
The position of USA is very precarious. For over a generation, this nation has waged war on the middle-east oil nations. Spilled a LOT of blood in the process. Mostly to prove that oil was forever. Well, it's NOT. And the people who can control the global production of oil come from places where people seethe with anger at the very mention of our name. No one owes us any favors. And even with fracking, we are still net importers of petroleum products.

Now IF we had put this problem—one that was already well-defined by 1973—on a WWII footing as Jimmy Carter suggested when when he called the energy problem "the Moral Equivalent Of War," the coming events would be so much easier to manage. Instead, official Washington took to calling his quite reasonable suggestion MEOW. Oh Jimmuh! you were such a pussy. Carter discovered that rational argumentation just wasn't butch enough.

Oil surges to 4-year high as investors see no sign of production rise amid Iran sanctions

RT 25 Sep, 2018

Crude oil prices have jumped to the highest level since November 2014 as key producers like Russia and OPEC are not increasing production, while Iran will soon be hit by US sanctions on its energy industry.

Brent oil surged to $81.9 per barrel on Tuesday, while the US West Texas Intermediate rose to $72.44 per barrel. OPEC, Russia and other key producers met at the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the so-called OPEC+ group decided not to do so.

While oil production is not rising, it is likely to fall when the US sanctions against Iran’s oil industry come into force on November 4.

“Iran will lose sizeable export volumes, and given OPEC+ reluctance to raise output, the market is ill-equipped to fill the supply gap,” Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at French bank BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded that OPEC, Russia and other producers should increase output to offset the fall in Iranian supplies. The International Energy Agency predicts strong oil demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.5 million bpd in 2019. The growth will come at the time when OPEC’s third largest producer Iran has been losing clients.

“South Korea and Japan have completely stopped importing oil from Iran, and India has slashed it almost twice. It means that that in about a month Iran will lose 1 million bpd. This loss in global supplies can become a catalyst for price growth in the foreseeable future,” Anastasia Ignatenko, leading analyst at TeleTrade said in an e-mail to RT. The analyst noted that oil could surge to $95 per barrel in the second half of 2019. more

Oil bites back


Well, the laws of oilfield "gravity" are finally kicking back in. They are:
  1. In spite of small motor-efficiency gains, the demand for oil continues to soar. Those people in China and India who finally got a nice car are not about to park it in the front yard and look at it.
  2. It has been a long time since the discovery of a major oil field. At some point, maybe soon, demand will significantly outstrip supplies. The scramble will be on.
  3. Fracking was a diversion. It cannot succeed because the energy gathered through fracking barely exceeds the energy it takes to frack. It's not easy to rearrange underground rock formations.
  4. The sanctions on Iran may prove a significant boost to their national prospects. Keep it in the ground. By the time sanctions are lifted, the price of oil may have doubled or more. In real economic terms, the price of oil can only go up.
The position of USA is very precarious. For over a generation, this nation has waged war on the middle-east oil nations. Spilled a LOT of blood in the process. Mostly to prove that oil was forever. Well, it's NOT. And the people who can control the global production of oil come from places where people seethe with anger at the very mention of our name. No one owes us any favors. And even with fracking, we are still net importers of petroleum products.

Now IF we had put this problem—one that was already well-defined by 1973—on a WWII footing as Jimmy Carter suggested when when he called the energy problem "the Moral Equivalent Of War," the coming events would be so much easier to manage. Instead, official Washington took to calling his quite reasonable suggestion MEOW. Oh Jimmuh! you were such a pussy. Carter discovered that rational argumentation just wasn't butch enough.

Oil surges to 4-year high as investors see no sign of production rise amid Iran sanctions

RT 25 Sep, 2018

Crude oil prices have jumped to the highest level since November 2014 as key producers like Russia and OPEC are not increasing production, while Iran will soon be hit by US sanctions on its energy industry.

Brent oil surged to $81.9 per barrel on Tuesday, while the US West Texas Intermediate rose to $72.44 per barrel. OPEC, Russia and other key producers met at the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the so-called OPEC+ group decided not to do so.

While oil production is not rising, it is likely to fall when the US sanctions against Iran’s oil industry come into force on November 4.

“Iran will lose sizeable export volumes, and given OPEC+ reluctance to raise output, the market is ill-equipped to fill the supply gap,” Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at French bank BNP Paribas, told Reuters.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded that OPEC, Russia and other producers should increase output to offset the fall in Iranian supplies. The International Energy Agency predicts strong oil demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.5 million bpd in 2019. The growth will come at the time when OPEC’s third largest producer Iran has been losing clients.

“South Korea and Japan have completely stopped importing oil from Iran, and India has slashed it almost twice. It means that that in about a month Iran will lose 1 million bpd. This loss in global supplies can become a catalyst for price growth in the foreseeable future,” Anastasia Ignatenko, leading analyst at TeleTrade said in an e-mail to RT. The analyst noted that oil could surge to $95 per barrel in the second half of 2019. more

A sense of urgency


Quite honestly, I do not know a great deal about Robert Hunziker. But on Monday, he wrote a piece that was special because it injected urgency into the climate debate. Urgency is a quality I often forget to stress both in my life and this blog. So I really appreciated his effort. If we are to escape the fire and energy trap we have built for ourselves, time is rapidly running out—if the goal is to build a post-fire civilization, we should have gotten serious about it in 1973. Projects take time. BIG projects take BIG time and effort. So rebuilding complete civilization, which is the biggest project I can imagine, will require trillions and a global effort.

In addition to reposting him below, I wrote him an email.
Your There is no time left was magnificently crafted—not to mention scary as hell.

As I see it, the fact that no one wants to talk about genuine climate change solutions is that the problem is SO large, very few can comprehend even a tiny segment of the big picture.

The basic problem is fire—that’s where most of the excess CO2 is generated. Making things worse, we are burning carbon that is millions of years old (coal, petroleum). And making this catastrophic, civilizations were designed to run on fire. This took humanity at least 6000 years to accomplish. If your essay is even partially correct, we have about 5 years to replace this incredible investment.

Part two is cultural. This sort of solution will absolutely depend on the kind of people who build the extremely difficult. While the idea of covering a cloudless hunk of the Gobi with solar cells is imaginative, it doesn’t work unless people figure out how to move that massive energy to China’s great cities. Since this has never been done before, it rivals the moon shot in complexity. (Five years, huh?) And yet, we live in a culture whose closest portrayal of the scientific and technological literate is The Big Bang Theory. Yet it is precisely these sorts of persons who have ANY chance of building the new and necessary world. At least we could stop making fun of them and learn what they must accomplish.

Rebuilding complete civilizations will be expensive. We need the world’s central banks to change policy so that the end-fire project is properly financed. Unfortunately, the people who pull the large levers of monetary policy share a fatal flaw—they are scientifically and technologically illiterate. Yet they can either ensure a new civilization or watch the one we have burn to a crisp. Time to make a new qualification for potential central bankers—they MUST be able to demonstrate an understanding of what it means to live in a fire-based civilization.

Congratulations



There Is No Time Left


ROBERT HUNZIKER, FEBRUARY 19, 2018

Imagine a scenario with no temperature difference between the equator and the North Pole. That was 12 million years ago when there was no ice at either pole. In that context, according to professor James G. Anderson of Harvard University, carbon in the atmosphere today is the same as 12 million years ago. The evidence is found in the paleoclimate record. It’s irrefutable.

Meaning, today’s big meltdown has only just started.

And, we’ve got 5 years to fix it or endure Gonzo World.

That’s one big pill to swallow!

That scenario comes by way of interpretation of a speech delivered by James G. Anderson at the University of Chicago in January 2018 when he received the Benton Medal for Distinguished Public Service, in part, for his groundbreaking research that led to the Montreal Protocol in 1987 to mitigate damage to the Ozone Layer.

At the time, Anderson was the force behind the most important event in the history of atmospheric chemistry, discovering and diagnosing Antarctica’s ozone hole, which led to the Montreal Protocol. Without that action, ramifications would have been absolutely catastrophic for the planet.

Stratospheric ozone is one of the most delicate aspects of planet habitability, providing protection from UV radiation for all life forms. If perchance the stratospheric ozone layer could be lowered to the ground, stacking the otherwise dispersed molecules together, it would be 1/8th of an inch in thickness or the thickness of two pennies. That separates humanity from burning up as the stratospheric ozone absorbs 98% of UV radiation.

In his acceptance speech, James G. Anderson, Harvard professor of atmospheric chemistry, now warns that it is foolhardy to assume we can recover from the global warming leviathan simply by cutting back emissions.

Accordingly, the only way humanity can dig itself out of the climate change/global-warming hole is by way of a WWII type effort with total transformation of industry off carbon and removal of carbon from the atmosphere within five years. The situation is so dire that it requires a worldwide Marshall Plan effort, plus kneeling in prayer.

Additionally, Anderson says the chance of permanent ice remaining in the Arctic after 2022 is zero. Already, 80% is gone. The problem: Without an ice shield to protect frozen methane hydrates in place for millennia, the Arctic turns into a methane nightmare. This is comparable to poking the global warming monster with a stick, as runaway global warming (“RGW”) emerges from the depths. Interestingly enough, the Arctic Methane Emergency Group/UK, composed of distinguished scientists, seems to be in agreement with this assessment.

Assuming professor Anderson is as accurate now as he was about the Ozone dilemma, then what can be done? After all, the world’s biggest economy, which has over-reaching influence on the biosphere, is under the influence of anti-science leadership. In fact, the Trump group is driving scientists out. France is hiring left and right under its “Make Our Planet Great Again” initiative. Thirteen of the initial eighteen French science grantees are from the U.S.

The world cannot count on leadership from America. In fact, quite the opposite as America gears up for massive fossil fuel production like never before just as the biosphere starts crumbling. Leadership by arrogance is a deadly deathly exercise.

Donald Trump claims the Paris ‘15 accord will hurt U.S. business because it requires reduction of emissions. That’s costly. He’s got it backwards. U.S. business and neoliberal tenets destroy the climate whilst creating an inverted pyramid of wealth that undermines the entire socio-politico-economic fabric. It’s the one-two punch, (1) ignoring and abusing the biosphere because “care for the planet” requires extra costs that eat into corporate profits whilst (2) undercutting upward mobility as American wages are exported and destroyed when U.S. manufacturing offshores to low wage countries like China and Mexico and Thailand. What could be worse for American workers than competition with the lowest common denominator in the world while living in a dicey biosphere? In part, it’s why the American middle class is almost broke, actually appended to credit cards in debt up to eyeballs.

As such, between squeezing the daylights out of middle class pocketbooks and abusing the biosphere, U.S. leadership stinks so badly that it demands outright change, similar to France in the late 18th century when thousands of arrogant aristocrats were beheaded in the streets, and the American Revolution (1775-83) when colonists got fed up with the madness of their leader, King George III. Except, King George was the first British monarch to study science. Still, the king suffered from “acute mania.”

Good News: There is a silver lining to the Trump presidency: Inept, arrogant, stupid leadership often times serves as a catalyst, often times revolutionary, for major changes in the socio-politico-economic fabric of society. This is seen throughout history. The reasoning is simple enough. Inept leadership brings to surface all of the warts for all to see. The deficiencies and inequities are not only exposed but also hit citizenry over the head like a leaden hammer. Suddenly, people awaken from their deep coma and kick the bums out. In the case of King Louis XVI of France, he was beheaded before a crowd of tens of thousands in the streets of Paris. In the case of King George III, his ineptness led to the American Revolution. Both leaders served as catalyst to radical change. Today, the warts are (1) neoliberal globalism with its tail of inequities, leaving 90% of society choking on dust. “The one percent” says it all, and (2) fossil fuel use/abuse, as the planet chokes on a dust cloud so thick that it’s losing its breath (new research shows that global warming destroys oxygen). There’s one powerful catalyst, amongst many! more