Category Archives: Brazil manufacturing

1/6/20: 3 months of COVID19 impact: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs

BRIC Manufacturing PMIs are out for May, showing some marginal improvements in the sector. However, of all four economies, China is the only one that is currently posting activity reading within the statistical range of zero--to-positive growth. Brazil, Russia and India remain deeply underwater.

Please note, these are quarterly PMIs, not monthly, based on GDP-weighted shares of manufacturing sectors and monthly PMI data points. 

4/5/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: April

Coronavirus pandemic has finally bitted deeply into the BRICs economic activity data, with April 2020 manufacturing PMIs coming in sharp down:

Combined, GDP-weighted average Manufacturing PMI for Brazil, Russia, India and China came in at 41.4 in April 2020, down from 49.1 in 1Q 2020 and 51.2 in 4Q 2019. Sharp declines in Brazil Manufacturing PMI (down to 36.0 in April, compared to 50.6 in 1Q 2020), Russia (down from an already-recessionary 47.9 in 1Q 2020 to 31.3 in April), and India (collapsing from 53.9 in 1Q 2020 to 27.4 in April) were also not helped by the continued weakness in China (1Q 2020 PMI was 47.2, albeit March 2020 reading was an encouraging 50.1, down to 49.4 in April). So far, the first month of 2Q 2020 shows no positive indicators for Manufacturing sectors across all BRICs.

However, even with this woeful performance, BRICs managed to post higher PMI (slower decline in the economic activity) than the Global economy. Global Manufacturing PMI in April sunk to 39.8 from 48.4 in 1Q 2020 - a drop of 8.6 points, against BRIC Manufacturing PMI sinking from 49.1 to 41.4 - a drop of 7.8 points.

2/3/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: February 2020

A quick post: Manufacturing PMIs are out for the BRIC economies and, unsurprisingly, things are tanking in China and remain seriously under pressure in Russia:

This is the first snapshot of the effects of Coronavirus #COVID19 #CoronaOutbreak on Chinese top-level economic activity figures. The data plotted above is quarter-based averages of the monthly indicator published by Markit. The BRIC quarterly index is computed by me using relative economy size weights for each BRIC economy. In the preceding 3 quarters, BRICs led global manufacturing activity. In 1Q 2020 so far, the BRIC economies as a group have been a drag on global growth.

5/1/20: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs 4Q 2019

As global manufacturing sector activity barely stayed above the recession line in 4Q 2019, BRICs manufacturing PMIs indicated a cautious upswing in activity, with exception for Russia and India. Here are the core details:

  • Brazil's 4Q 2019 Manufacturing PMIs averaged 51.8, statistically unchanged on 3Q 2019 figure of 51.9. Both 3Q and 4Q readings were statistically above 50.0, indicating modest growth, and above historical average of 50.3. Nonetheless, 4Q 2019 reading was the second lowest in six consecutive quarters.
  • Russia posted its second consecutive quarter of recessionary growth readings for manufacturing sector, with quarterly average PMI slipping to 46.8 in 4Q 2019, down from 48.2 in 3Q 2019, making 4Q contraction the sharpest since 2Q 2009. All in, the last time Russian manufacturing sector posted statistically above 50.0 reading was in 1Q 2019. The signal here is severely negative to overall growth prospects for the Russian economy for the entire 2019 and a major concern for the 1H 2020 dynamics. 
  • China manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside in the last quarter of 2019, rising from 50.6 in 3Q 2019 (a reading statistically indistinguishable from zero growth 50.0 mark) to 51.7 in 4Q 2019 (a reading indicating moderate expansion, compared to the historical average of 50.8). Statistically, Chinese manufacturing has not been in an expansion mode over 3Q 2018 - 3Q 2019 period, which makes 4Q 2019 reading an important signal of a potential turnaround.
  • India manufacturing PMI averaged 51.5 in 4Q 2019, slightly down on 51.8 in 3Q 2019. This is the weakest level since 3Q 2017, but statistically it is still indicative of expansion in the sector.
Overall, BRIC Manufacturing PMI (based on each country share in global GDP) has improved from 50.7 in 3Q 2019 to 51.2 in 4Q 2019, marking the fastest rate of the group's manufacturing sector expansion 1Q 2018 and the second consecutive quarter of the index being statistically above the 50.0 zero growth line.

Globally, manufacturing sector growth conditions improved from 49.5 in 3Q 2019 to 50.1 in 4Q 2019, although statistically, no reading from 2Q 2019 onwards was significantly above or below the zero growth 50.0 line.

As the chart above clearly shows, Global Manufacturing sector activity remains extremely weak. On-trend, more recent BRICs Manufacturing sector growth is above that of the Global PMI signal, but both show weaknesses.