In our Financial Systems class, yesterday, we were discussing the potential trajectories for 'exit' from COVID19 restriction and easing of economic constraints. Handily, yesterday, Morgan Stanley published this analytical timeline of the pandemic evolution:
Their analysis is based on the following assumed timings:
- They expect U.S. coastal regions to peak in the next 3-5 days (so March 15-17),
- The rest of the U.S. will lag these by "around 3 weeks", leading to a "second peak" that promises to be not as severe as the first peak.
- The MS are expecting the second peak to result in the US cases peaking at x4 China and x2 Italy.
- MS therefore describe the U.S. trajectory as having "a very long tail".
- Based on comparisons to Korea testing, the MS research suggests the earliest 'reopening' date for the U.S. as mid-to-late May.
Here is MS note on re-opening:
Key takeaway on the future developments: "only a vaccine will provide a true solution to this pandemic" and that means that we are likely to see - best case scenario - scaled delivery of the vaccine for the 2021 flu season.
This is a long road ahead...