Category Archives: #COVIDRussia

4/12/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

As of today, 67 countries around thee world have registered > 100,000 cases of COVID19. Here are the summary tables of core statistics covering these countries:

Summary stats:

Since the start of the second wave of the pandemic in Europe, EU27 are now once again having higher share of contributions to overall death counts (18.5% of world's total) than the corresponding share for thee U.S. (18.3%). Actual gap is 0.172 percentage points. However, in more recent days, EU27 new case numbers have been falling, while those in the U.S. continue to rise. This suggests that in weeks to come we are likely to see another reversal in deaths shares.

Just two weeks ago, combined share of global deaths accounted for by G7 countries plus Spain stood at 34.5%. Today, it is at 35.0%. For the U.S. the number shifted from 18.6% to 18.3% currently, while for the EU27 it rose from 16.6% to 18.5%. This clearly highlights the shift in the pandemic impact toward Europe in the last two weeks.

U.S. mortality rate from COVID19 has moderated over the last two weeks, falling from 21.9 deaths per 1,000 cases to 19.54. For the EU27, mortality actually rose from 23.0 to 23.3.

Overall, the worst performing country across three metrics of cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per 1,000 cases is Belgium, followed by Peru and Spain. Italy ranks the fourth, Argentina the fifth and the UK ranks the 6th worst performer,

The U.S. ranks 7th worst and the EU27 ranks 21st worst. 

24 countries have more than 500,000 cases and 14 have more than 1,000,000 cases. The U.S. is the only country with more than 10,000,000 cases at 14,139,703. The second largest number of cases is in India at 9,571,559. Brazil is the third with 6,487,084 cases. Only seven countries recorded more than 50,000 deaths so far, of which four recorded more than 100,000 deaths. The U.S. has the largest number of total COVID19-linked deaths in the world (276,316), followed by Brazil (175,270) and India (139,188).

4/12/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data for COVID19 pandemic worldwide:

Global number of daily new cases was on an upward trend through July 2020. In August, new daily case additions have been relatively flat. However, since the start of September, new daily case numbers have risen once again, implying that Global Pandemic is yet to attain its first overall peak.

New daily cases have appeared to peak for the current wave of the pandemic around November 21. However, since the start of December, 7 days moving average has resumed its upward momentum. This implies that we must exercise extreme caution in interpreting end of November timeline for the peaking of the second wave.

The chart above clearly shows the difficulty in interpreting global peak of the pandemic. Overall, notionally, we have experienced what appears to be three waves: 
  1. Wave 1 peaked around April 9th and the first trough took place around the end of April.
  2. Wave 2 started from the first days of May and peaked between August 1 and August 14.
  3. Wave 3 started from the second trough of August 27-29th and has (to-date) peaked around November 21.
However, statistically, neither Wave 1 nor Wave 2 attained a true peak, as post-local peak troughs were to shallow to genuinely mark a statistically significant deviation from each prior local peak.

In other words, there is little in the data to allow us to call the aforementioned Waves 1 & 2 as genuinely distinctive waves of the pandemic.

The above aside, back to data: looking at the daily deaths rates

Unlike new cases, daily deaths show more distinct waves patterns. Specifically, 
  1. Wave 1: peaking around April 22 generated a post-peak trough around June 3 that is statistically significantly below the peak values. This defines a statistically valid wave.
  2. Wave 2: starting from around June 7 and peaking around August 13. This wave ended in a trough of September 22 which is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. This means it is harder to call this a genuine wave.
  3. Wave 3: starting from around October 23 and currently still accelerating. There is zero doubt that this is a well-defined wave.
Looking back at the more current data, deaths counts are rising steeply, with some slight moderation in the last few days. This moderation in the growth rates is highlighted in the chart below:

It is important to contextualise the above chart before drawing any conclusions. Growth rates in both deaths and new case counts have moderated. But this moderation is coming off extremely high levels in both time series. Put differently, suppose we start at a value of 100 and grow by 20% in one period. This means one period rise is 20% * 100 = 20 units. Suppose we start instead at 300 and grow by 10% in a period. This implies increase in units of 10% * 300 = 30 units. 

With this in mind, even moderated rates of growth wee have witnessed since the start of December are worrying. Here are two tables summarising monthly statistics for bot cases and deaths and growth rates statistics in both new cases and deaths. 

In summary, the pandemic continues to rage and it appears that much welcomed moderation in the new cases dynamics witnessed in the last week of November is unlikely to hold. Worse, within a week, we will be going into pre-holidays mode around the world and in the U.S. we will be also experiencing lagged cases uplifts due to Thanksgiving travel. 

Stay safe everyone: December will be a hellish month.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Updating pandemic data for Russia: some summary stats first

The above stats clearly show that Russian pandemic is in  full-blown second wave of infections and deaths. As the chart below illustrates, however:
  • Russian second wave has been associated with exactly matching dynamics in both cases and deaths without any substantial lags;
  • Both cases and deaths are yet to show any signs of stabilization and peaking (which is distinct from the EU27 experience so far);
  • The two effects combined suggest that Russian pandemic numbers are likely to continue to worsen into December.
You can see more Russia summary stats and comparatives to other countries here:

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating the tables for countries with more than 100,000 recorded cases of COVID19:

  • U.S. continues to lead globally in terms of deaths and new cases counts. On per-capita terms, the U.S. ranks 7th worst in the world in terms of cases per 1 million of population, 12th worst in terms of deaths per 1 million of population and 27th worst in the world in terms of deaths per 1,000 officially detected infections. The country has, by far, the most expensive (as a share of GDP) healthcare system in the world.
  • In contrast, were they treated as a single entity, BRIICS+Turkey have better than average performance in terms of number of cases, number of deaths per capita and an average (statistically)  rate of deaths per 1,000 cases.
  • Worldwide, 20 countries now have more than 500,000 cases and 5 countries of these have more than 50,000 deaths.
  • On per capita basis, the worst performing country in the world for cases counts is Qatar, followed by Belgium and Czechia, Armenia and Israel. In terms of deaths per capita, the worst country in the world is Belgium, followed by Peru, Spain, Argentina and Brazil. 
  • In deaths per 1,000 confirmed cases, the worst performing country is Mexico, followed by Ecuador, Bolivia, Egypt and Iran.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data on global COVID19 pandemic spread:

Some summary tables first;

November-to-date is an outlier month in terms of both, case numbers and deaths. While the former is in part driven by better availability of testing, the latter runs contrary to the expected outrun of improved testing: higher rates pf testing lead to earlier detection of the disease and, in theory, should lead to reduced deaths. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Daily average new deaths are running at 8.294 so far in November - a massive increase on October and the highest average for any month so far. Worse, thee geography of new cases has shifted from less-developed countries (South and Latin America, India etc) to more advanced economies (the U.S. and Europe), which should, in theory, see a reduction in daily deaths counts (due to better public health systems). This is not happening.

Table above shows dramatic jump in the rate of growth in deaths in November, compared to every prior month. It also suggests longer lags in deaths increases following cases increases, which may be due to earlier detection and younger cases demographics. This, however, is not comforting. Again, earlier detection and younger demographics should lead to slower rates of growth in deaths, not higher.

Charts for cases and deaths:

Moving averages clearly show relentless growth in the pandemic since the start of October for cases and the end of October for deaths. The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating.