Category Archives: #CoronaVirusRU

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Updating pandemic data for Russia: some summary stats first

The above stats clearly show that Russian pandemic is in  full-blown second wave of infections and deaths. As the chart below illustrates, however:
  • Russian second wave has been associated with exactly matching dynamics in both cases and deaths without any substantial lags;
  • Both cases and deaths are yet to show any signs of stabilization and peaking (which is distinct from the EU27 experience so far);
  • The two effects combined suggest that Russian pandemic numbers are likely to continue to worsen into December.
You can see more Russia summary stats and comparatives to other countries here:

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia is experiencing a second wave of the pandemic that started around September 10-12 is still gaining speed in terms of new cases and deaths counts:

This wave is both deadlier and more severe in terms of new cases than the previous one, although there appears to be less pressure on the public health system so far. Nonetheless, November data to-date shows much higher daily average new infections (subject, partially, to higher rates of testing), and higher daily deaths counts (clearly not accounted for by higher testing):

Comparatively, Russia is performing relatively ok, when set against other BRIICS and the U.S. and the EU27 experiences: 

27/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Russia is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic with rapidly accelerating daily deaths counts:

Authorities are imposing more severe restrictions on mobility (especially for older members of the public) and are trying to replace older essential workers with younger cohorts. For example, Moscow is trying to roll out substitute teachers (drafted from senior college students) as substitutes for older teaching staff in primary schools. A number of regions (as a federal structure, Russia has highly heterogenous, locally-administered systems) are now running out of emergency health facilities (, with serious questions being asked as to the apparent lack of preparedness, given the summer pandemic moderation period. 

Overall, Russia currently ranks 33rd worst in the league of 47 countries with more than 100,000 cases, with better than average (95% confidence interval) scores in the number of cases per 1 million population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of cases. Despite the commonly cited controversy over Russian reporting methodologies for COVID19 linked deaths (incidentally, Russia does not use a unique methodology for such reporting, although Russian methods for assigning causes of deaths are different from those used in the EU27), Russian rates of deaths per cases detected and rates of deaths per 1 million of population are comparable (in rankings) to Russia's case numbers. 

Nonetheless, the second wave of the pandemic is both deadlier and larger than the first wave and it remains to be seen if Russian healthcare system can cope with this. 

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Two weeks ago I pointed out the fact that Russian COVID19 numbers are going exponential as the pandemic clearly entered a new wave dynamic. This trend is still there and death counts are rapidly accelerating as well.

If the chart isn't clear enough, here are the numbers: 

This isn't a fluke, nor a product of increased testing, though the latter factor contributes to higher detection numbers, it should be pushing down deaths (earlier interventions should be consistent with better treatment options and outcomes). 

Around two weeks ago, Russia new cases went exponential. Now, there are signs of a similar dynamic in the already rising daily death counts.

17/10/20: COVID19 Update: Russia


Russian pandemic numbers are getting seriously out of control, once again, and this outrun was pretty much predictable based on early eit from serious restrictions.

Russia managed to lower, but not crush, pandemic pressures between the first wave peak of the second week of May 2020 and the start of July. By mid-August, both new cases and daily deaths counts fell to their post-peak lows. However, starting with September, the pandemic evolved into a second wave, with exponential increase in new cases through today, and deaths following the same trend path.

Here is a summary table of the second wave dynamics:

And here are Russia comparatives in comparison to some of the peers in the table of countries with more than 100,000 cases:

At current rates of new cases arrivals, Russia will still be able to cope with the pandemic from the public health system capacity perspective, but absent strict lockdowns, the new wave is likely to continue expanding. Upcoming winter weather is likely to keep the acceleration pressures on the new cases and with this, Russian hospitals capacity could be severely tested comes mid- to late-November.