Category Archives: #Covidiots

3/2/21: The Cost of Trump’s Failures to Act on Covid19: Case of Housing Market Interventions

 

COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a range of deep and dramatic policy interventions, including rolling lockdowns, monetary and fiscal policies interventions, wide ranges of subsidies and supports, but also measures relating to addressing the risk to households and companies arising from the pre-pandemic financial commitments. 

One of the most, potentially, impactful measures has been adoption of a range of policy interventions that aimed to reduce the impact of income shocks on housing availability. In addition to targeting reduction of financial burden of the pandemic shocks on households, the measures also targeted the objective of lowering the risk of spread of the disease via promotion of housing stability.

A recent paper, by Jowers, Kay and Timmins, Christopher D. and Bhavsar, Nrupen and Hu, Qihui and Marshall, Julia, titled "Housing Precarity & the Covid-19 Pandemic: Impacts of Utility Disconnection and Eviction Moratoria on Infections and Deaths Across US Counties" (January 2021, NBER Working Paper No. w28394: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3772641) looked into the effectiveness of housing markets interventions in the latter context. 

Per authors, "housing precarity, which includes both the risk of eviction and utility disconnections or shut-offs, reduces a person’s ability to abide by social distancing orders and comply with hygiene recommendations."

The authors found that 

  1. "...policies that limit evictions are found to reduce COVID-19 infections by 3.8% and reduce deaths by 11%.
  2. "Moratoria on utility disconnections reduce COVID-19 infections by 4.4% and mortality rates by 7.4%."
"Had such policies been in place across all counties (i.e., adopted as federal policy) from early March 2020 through the end of November 2020, ... policies that limit evictions could have reduced COVID-19 infections by 14.2% and deaths by 40.7%. (emphasis is mine) [While], for moratoria on utility disconnections, COVID-19 infections rates could have been reduced by 8.7% and deaths by 14.8%."

These are genuinely huge numbers. Assuming the effects are non-additive, the lower end estimate of human losses to Covid19 pandemic due to the Trump Administration's failure to act coherently and resolutely in imposing similar policies to support households' tenancy in rental and mortgages markets across the U.S. is in the range of > 40 percent. If the effects are additive, the magnitude of the preventable deaths rises to well over 50 percent.


4/12/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic to-date:

  • The U.S. retains higher death rate per 1 million population (844.6), than the EU27 (624.4). 
  • Current U.S. death rate per capita is 35% above the EU27, though this gap is still closing (it was 42% a week ago).
  • Gross counts of deaths in the U.S. >> the EU27 over 12/07 - 1/12.  This was reversed on 2/12, with total EU27 deaths currently at 278,914 vs the U.S. 276,316. 
  • Adjusting deaths to account for a 1 week lag in the onset of pandemic in the U.S., relative to the EU27, current U.S. deaths are 21,435 above those in the EU27
  • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the U.S. deaths are 77,048 above those in the EU27.
  • While the EU27 led the U.S. in new deaths and case counts through 20/11, since then, the U.S. has retaken the lead in new cases counts. 
  • Daily deaths counts in the U.S. are now expected to start exceeding those in the EU27 once again.

Starting with 20/11/2020, the U.S. once again overtaken the EU27 in the number of daily reported cases, based on 7-days moving average:


The data above is yet to reflect massive potential contagion event of Thanksgiving travel in the U.S. and the related movements of students from and back to the colleges and universities that allowed in-person teaching in the Fall 2020 semester.

Shorter lags between contagion and diagnosis of COVID19 cases imply longer lags between new cases arrivals and hospitalisations, which in turn further elongates the lags between new cases detection and associated deaths counts. This is clearly evident from comparing the following figure dynamics with prior figure dynamics:

Put differently, current better performance by the U.S. compared to the EU27 in the second wave of the pandemic in terms of daily deaths counts is unlikely to remain for much longer. EU27 daily deaths trend appears to have peaked about a week ago, while the U.S. deaths trend remains upward-running. 

Little comfort for the wicked... right? 


As the chart above shows, even with more favourable deaths dynamics during the current wave of the pandemic, the U.S. deaths per capita remain horrifically above those in the EU27. Worse, over the last four days, we are seeing some tentative signs that the EU27 daily deaths counts might be moderating. Meanwhile, the opposite is taking place in the U.S.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

Comparatives for the pandemic development across the EU27 vs U.S.:

Thanks to an absolutely savage second wave of the pandemic, EU27 is now closing the gap with the U.S. in terms of total deaths, both in absolute terms and in per capita terms:


  • Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continued to be worse than that for the EU27 until early October.
  • EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 308 per 1 million prior to August 2, but has been rising once again since then (498.1 currently).
  • U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (760.1 currently).
  • The U.S. & EU27 are in 3rd (U.S.) and 2nd (EU27) waves of infections. Since Oct 1st, EU27 cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 3 days & deaths on all but 16 days
The trends are horrifying, albeit in the EU27 we are now seeing potential decline in cases from the second peak. The U.S. appears to remain on the increasing trendline in terms of new cases: 


As the U.S. 3rd wave of new cases is blowing up, and the EU27 2nd wave appears to be subsiding, we are likely to see deaths accelerating once again in the U.S. and falling in the EU27, so the deaths gap between the U.S. and the EU27 is likely to revert back growing excess U.S. deaths.

  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. 
  • Current excess gap is at +46,983, which is down on peak excess deaths gap of 68,152 attained a month ago. 
  • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 113,081. Put differently, 113,081 Americans would have been alive today were the U.S. responses to the pandemic similar to those adopted by the EU27.

Summary statistics really paint an awful picture: 
  • November has been thee worst month so far in this entire pandemic in terms of daily cases increases for both the EU27 and the U.S. 
  • In terms of deaths counts, the U.S. is still lagging behind the EU27, but November to-date is now ranks as the second worst month in daily deaths counts in the U.S. and the worst month in the EU27.


For more EU27 - U.S. comparatives, including comparatives to other countries, see: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/181120-covid19-update-countries-with.html. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

EU27 vs U.S. comparatives for data through November 3:



  • The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 707.7
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 396.8
  • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 78 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now closing (it was 86% a week ago).
  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
    • Current excess gap is at +65,585. 
    • Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 123,449. 
  • The U.S. & the EU27 are in 2nd waves of infections. October 1st to-date, EU27 daily cases have surpassed the U.S. on all but 2 days & deaths on 18 occasions
Across the board:
  • EU27 second wave is savage in terms of new cases counts (more than four times the rate of the peak wave 1) and deaths counts are climbing up at a fast pace. On the current trajectory (note: this is not a formal forecast, but a point of warning), the EU27 deaths will be testing 3,000 per day counts mark within this month. 
  • U.S. is in a third or a second wave of the pandemic - depending on how one counts the 'waves' - in terms of new cases, but is yet to post consistent uptick in deaths. Nonetheless, in the last 10 days, deaths counts have also ticked up. Given that new cases in the U.S. are currently running at above thee last wave peak levels, we can expect continued increases in daily deaths counts too, albeit with longer lag on account of earlier detections and younger demographics of new cases. 

Here are some really shameful stats, positioning EU27 and U.S. performance in the context of all countries with > 100,000 cases:


Out of 51 countries with >100,000 cases + EU27, 
  • The U.S. is ranked 6th worst in terms of cases per capita, 10th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 24th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 8th worst in the world.
  • The EU27 is ranked 20h worst in terms of cases per capita, 19th worst in terms of deaths per capita, and 20th worst in terms of deaths per 1,000 confirmed infections. Across all key metrics of the pandemic, the U.S. ranks 20th worst in the world.
Peer-comparatives:



27/10/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

 Quick update to the U.S. vs EU27 charts for COVID19 pandemic:




Key stats:
  • The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 690.0
    • Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 370.3
    • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 86 percent above that for the EU27, though this gap is now slowly closing (it was 90% a week ago).
  • Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +67,604. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,869. 
  • The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 11 occasions
Couple of summary tables:

I covered a recent study from the Columbia University on U.S. excess deaths here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/251020-covid19-us-excess-deaths-are.html.