Category Archives: #TailEevents

8/6/21: World is more VUCA. Less Risk.

 For those who have been my students in recent years none of this will come as a surprise: the world around us is becoming less 'risk-driven' and more 'VUCA-prone'. By VUCA, of course, we mean volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. 

Here is a neat summary via McKinsey:


None of the above data sets are 'risk' in any structured or definitional sense of that terms. None carry known, easy-to-define probability distributions, none have strictly identifiable impact distributions and none adhere to the normal laws of large numbers. These are uncertain events that are also inter-related through complex contagion pathways. 

Good luck fitting actuarial tables to them...