Category Archives: Europe

20/6/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating pandemic numbers for the past week for EU27 and Europe:



As the charts clearly show, 

  • Europe experienced significant declines in new cases and deaths in recent weeks, in part due to improved rates of vaccinations.
  • The third wave is now clearly behind us in both the EU27 and Europe, although European cases are remaining at much higher levels than those in the EU27. A similar pattern is evident in deaths.
  • In terms of Covid19 mortality (deaths per 1,000 cases) the rate of mortality has been effectively flat since week 45 of 2020 and is currently running at around 22 deaths per 1,000 cases in the EU27 and Europe.
While these figures show the effectiveness of vaccinations and past lockdown measures, they also present evidence for the need of more robust international efforts in sharing vaccines with countries with lower incomes. Until similar declines are evidenced globally, it is hard to make an argument that any specific region (be it Europe or North America) can be immune from the risks of the pandemic contagion from other countries. More on this risk here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/06/19621-covid19-worldwide-data.html

19/6/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 

With some time passing since my last update, and the rates of vaccinations ramping up globally, it is easy to forget the simple, but devastating fact: we are still in a global pandemic. Here are the latest weekly totals for new cases and new deaths, worldwide:



Just as the charts show,
  • New cases have fallen significantly from the pandemic peak (Wave 4), but remain above the prior trough between Waves 3 and 4. 
  • New deaths recorded are still at extremely high levels, and showing an uptick week-on-week in the latest data.
Meanwhile, mortality of new Covid19 cases is stubbornly at the levels observed over the last two waves of the pandemic:


Put differently, the 'rich' world is getting vaccinated (albeit with some variation in the rates), while the emerging markets and middle-income economies remain well behind on vaccinations curve. Which means there is continued threat of a global pandemic re-igniting and the looming uncertainty over the new variants emerging.

So much for the 'reopening' future...

9/5/21: COVID19: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

 

Updating data for the U.S. - EU27 comparatives for the pandemic through this week (week 17):


Table above reflects several major features of the recent data evolution for the Covid19 pandemic in the U.S. and the EU27, also highlighted in the charts below:
  • Firstly, total number of new cases has diverged in recent weeks. Starting with week 7 of 2021, the U.S. cases continued to fall, while the EU27 cases entered a new upward trend. The new wave - Wave 3 - formed in Europe, whilst the U.S. managed to escape development of Wave 4.
  • For eleven of the last consecutive weeks, the EU27 cases significantly exceeded those in the U.S.
  • As of Week 12, 2021: EU27's Wave 3 has peaked and we have now witnessed five continuous weeks of declines from the peak, although the EU27 case numbers still substantially exceed those in the U.S.
  • There is only one attributable difference between the two countries that can explain this divergence: vaccinations rates. In fact, whilst the U.S. response to the pandemic in its first 10 months has been an unmitigated disaster, the EU27's unroll of the vaccines has been a Trumpesque-level failure of its own. 


As the result of the above factors, EU27 trends in deaths numbers are equally concerning:
  • The EU27 started 2021 with a significantly lower per-capita death rate than the U.S. 
  • At the start of January, as reported on this blog, adjusting for age differences and population size differences, the U.S. pandemic was associated with 139,188 excess deaths compared to the EU27.
  • At the end of this week, this gap was down to 87,598.
  • Put differently, President Trump's policies were responsible for excess deaths amounting to roughly 1/3 of the total deaths sustained in the U.S. over the period of 2020. Since the start of 2021, EU27 policies on vaccinations are responsible for closing this gap by almost 40 percent.
  • The above comparatives for vaccination roll out failure effects are conservative. The EU27 has suffered Wave 3 of the pandemic amidst strict and wide-ranging lockdowns, not comparable to the U.S. measures deployed over the same period of time. 
  • In fact, Week 17/2021 U.S. deaths counts are now lowest for any week since week 27/2020. In contrast, the Eu27 deaths are currently the lowest since week 45/2020.

Tragically, for the EU27, European rates of mortality from the virus have been running above those in the U.S. every week since Week 43/2020, as shown in the chart below:

In fact, as the chart above illustrates, EU27 is yet to see the return to its lowest recorded mortality rate of 0.014 set in Week 37/2020, while the U.S. has been running below that rate on-trend over the last five weeks.

Chart next show the dramatic difference in mortality per case in the U.S. and the EU27 (vertical axis) against the world-wide mortality (horizontal axis), without adjusting for age and population size differences (a note of caution: regression lines are only indicative, at best):


In summary, therefore, the EU27 is paying a high price for its utter failure to unroll vaccinations at scale. The U.S. performance, starting with February-March, has been exemplary compared to the European policy approach, although a lot of the gains made so far are:

  1. Subject to forward uncertainty (U.S. weekly statistics have been exceptionally volatile and hard to interpret); and
  2. As of yet, not enough to erase the scars left by the Trump Administration's mismanagement of the early stages of the pandemic.

9/5/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 Updating data for BRIICS for Covid19 pandemic through Week 17 of 2021 (current week):


Almost half of all cumulated cases within the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) group are now in India (above) and almost half of all deaths are in Brazil (below).


The pandemic dynamics have turned decisively in recent weeks: in terms of new cases, India dominates the trend up, with all other BRIICS showing amelioration in the pandemic:


Similarly, for we weekly death counts:

China data remains utterly unbelievable and hard to trust.

Summary table of recent developments:


India's pandemic dynamics are shocking, horrific and show no signs of abating. This is a humanitarian disaster that requires help from the rest of the world - help that has been coming in too-little and too-late.


9/5/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating graphs for Europe and EU27 pandemic data through week 17 of 2021:


Some good news with a shade of a reality check:
  • New cases are off their Wave 3 highs, solidly so
  • Current case counts are still above Wave 2 trough and well ahead of where they were at the end of Summer 2020.
Similar, but a bit more benign trend in weekly death counts:


Good news 'part 3': mortality rates are declining, again:


While the progress on vaccinations across Europe has been less impressive than desired, it now appears that two factors are driving the end of the Wave 3 of this pandemic:

  1. Vaccinations roll-outs, and
  2. Cumulated effects of recent (and in some countries still ongoing) restrictions.
Let's hope these trends remain persistent in weeks ahead and the new variants do not show up with resistance to vaccinations.