Category Archives: Italy

2/4/20: US Record in Covid Response To-Date


Much of the rhetoric coming out of the Washington on COVID19 pandemic is centred around the claims that the U.S. response to the pandemic has been adequately scaled up, with some claims even referencing allegedly 'highest rates of testing' in the world. Here are two charts putting the U.S. Covid pandemic responses to comparatives:


Now, most current data:


Not only the U.S. number of cases has now exceeded double that of Italy, but the U.S. death toll is currently on track to exceed Italy's massive death tool within 4 days, should the trend to-date persist.

'World class' track record this is...

22/3/20: COVID2019 in Numbers


Updating numbers for Corona Virus infections and related deaths:

Next up, comparing Italy and U.S. numbers in terms of their dynamics from the start of the infection detections in each country (date 30) to today:

Note, while the U.S. infections dynamics have overtaken Italy already, U.S. death rates remain well below those in Italy. This is due to a range of factors, none of which are particularly satisfactory for the U.S. healthcare system assessment:

  1. Italian demographics and deaths cases suggest that Italian patients were more likely to die from the disease earlier on after the detection than the U.S. patients.
  2. Higher population density and concentration of the virus cases in Italy mean greater strain on healthcare resources in specific locations in Italy than in the U.S.
  3. rates of detection and treatment are most likely much higher in Italy than in the U.S. due to more severe restrictions in the U.S. in accessing healthcare. 
I covered some of these earlier here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/03/15320-acute-beds-and-hospital-beds.html. But here is an added kicker not mentioned in the linked post: the U.S. is now facing a massive wave of ongoing layoffs. As workers lose their jobs, they also lose access to health insurance (the continuity coverage program, COBRA, is excruciatingly expensive).

15/2/19: Euro area is sliding toward recession


Based on the latest data through January 2019, Eurozone’s economic problems are getting worse. In 4Q 2018, Euro area posted real GDP growth of just 0,.2% q/q - matching the print for 3Q 2018. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen from 1.7% in December 2018 to 1.6% in January 2018. And Eurocoin - a leading growth indicator for euro area GDP expansion slipped from 0.42 in December 2018 to 0.31 in January 2019. This marked the third consecutive month of decline in Eurocoin, and the steepest fall in 8 months. Worse, July 23016 was the last time Eurocoin was at this level.



Within the last 12 months, Eurozone growth has officially fallen from 0,.7% q/q in 4Q 2017 to 0.2% in 4Q 2018, HICP effectively stayed the same, with inflation at 1.6% in January 2018 agains 1.5% in January 2018. And forward growth indicator has collapsed from 0.95 in January 2018 to 0.31 in January 2019.

Euro area is heading backward when it comes to economic activity, fast.

Germany just narrowly escaped an official recession, with 4Q growth at zero, and 3Q growth at -0.2%


Italy is in official recession, with 3Q 2018 GDP growth of -0.1% followed by 4Q 2018 growth of -0.2%.

Industrial goods production is now down two consecutive months in the Euro area as a whole, with latest print for December 2018 sitting at - 4.2% decline, following a -3.0% y/y fall in November 2018.


Worse, capital goods industrial production - a signal of forward capacity investment, is now down even more sharply: from -4.4% in November 2018 to -5.5% in December 2018.