Category Archives: Irish services sectors

6/5/15: Irish Services & Manufacturing PMI: April 2015

Irish Services PMI (Markit & Investec) for April posted slightly lower rate of growth in the sector compared to March, declining marginally to 60.9 from 60.6 a month ago. Current reading marks the 14th consecutive month of Services PMI above 60.0 and 33rd consecutive above 50.0 reading, so not surprisingly, the sector is running hot.

Irish Manufacturing PMI is covered in more details here:

Stripping out some volatility:

  • Services sector PMI 3mo average is currently at 62.2, running above 3mo average through January 2015 (61.0) and 3mo average through April 2014 (60.0). 6mo average through April 2015 is just 0.4 points below 6mo average through October 2014.  Historically, current Services PMI 12 mo average of 61.8 compares favourably to the post-crisis period average of 56.0 and pre-crisis average of 57.6. Crisis period average was 50.7.
  • Manufacturing sector PMI 3mo average through April 2015 is at 56.1 which is somewhat lower than the 3mo average through January 2015 (56.7) but well ahead of the 3mo average through April 2014 (54.8). 6mo average for the period through April 2015 is 0.5 points above the 6mo average through October 2014. Historically, current Manufacturing PMI 12 mo average of 56.1 compares favourably to the post-crisis period average of 52.7 and pre-crisis average of 51.8. Crisis period average was 51.2.

In April, both Services and Manufacturing PMIs posted some marginal slowdown in activity compared to April 2014. Services PMI slipped from 61.9 to 60.6 and Manufacturing PMI declined from 56.1 to 55.8. Nonetheless, both series have now been jointly trending above 50.0 for 23 months, which is a solid performance.

7/4/15: Irish Services PMI: March 2015

Irish Services PMI was published by Markit/Investec today.

March Services PMI stood at 60.9, down from 61.4 in February, marking the third consecutive month of m/m declines from the local high of 62.6 in December 2014. Current reading is the lowest in 12 consecutive months.

Still at 60.9, the index is signaling robust growth in the sector. More importantly, 3mo average is at 61.6 for Q1 2015, which is marginally weaker than 61.9 average for Q4 2014 and well above Q1 2013 reading of 54.2 and Q1 2014 reading of 59.9.

March marks the first time since January when both Manufacturing and Services PMIs declined. Last time this happened before January 2015 was in May 2014, so twin decline is a rather rare event. This said, both indices remained well above their post-crisis averages in March, although over the last 12 months, Manufacturing averaged 56.2 (which means March reading out-performed the average at 56.8) against Services 12 mo average of 61.9 (which means that March reading under-performed the average at 60.9).

Broadly-speaking, we are seeing reduction in the rate of growth in both Manufacturing and Services, albeit from very high levels.

More detailed quarterly analysis to follow, so stay tuned.