Category Archives: Economic growth

13/11/20: The economy has two chronic illnesses (and neither are Covid)

My column for The Currency this week covers two key long-term themes in the global economy that pre-date the pandemic and will remain in place well into 2025: the twin secular stagnations hypotheses and the changing nature of the productivity. The link to the article is here; https://thecurrency.news/articles/28224/the-economy-has-two-chronic-illnesses-and-neither-are-covid/. 


 

3/10/20: Eurocoin Leading Growth Indicator 3Q 2020

 

Eurocoin, a leading growth indicator for the euro area published by CEPR and Banca d'Italia posted another negative (recessionary) reading in September (-0.31) after marking peak growth contraction of COVID19 pandemic period in August (-0.64). This puts Eurocoin in negative territory for the 6th consecutive month since March 2020. 


Current forecast for 3Q 2020 growth remains at -3.5 percent q/q. Deflationary pressures are also building up. Euro area's 12 months average HICP forecast for 3Q 2020 stands at around 0.6 to 0.5.


As the chart above shows, Eurozone remains deeply in a recessionary territory based on Eurocoin forecasts and inflation dynamics. Longer term growth averages are shown in the chart below:


Overall, as noted above, one must take all leading indicators and forecasts with some serious warnings attached: we are in an environment where past models for forecasting economic aggregates become severely challenged.


17/9/20: Eurocoin Leading Growth Indicator 3Q 2020

 

Eurocoin, CEPR & Banca d'Italia leading growth indicator for Euro Area economy is pointing to renewed weaknesses in the Eurozone economy in August, falling to its lowest levels in the COVID19 pandemic period:


As the chart above shows, Eurocoin fell from -0.5 in July to -0.64 in August, its lowest reading since June 2009. The forecast September indicator is at -0.30. Through August, we now have five consecutive months of sub-zero readings. Based on July-August data and September forecast, we are looking at a GDP contraction of 3.5 percentage points in 3Q 2020. This is mapped out in the chart below:


As the chart above shows, average annual growth rate in the Eurozone for 2020 is now sitting at -6,33 percent, far worse than the previous low of -0.575 in 2009. In quarterly readings, we now have two actual and one forecast quarters of 2020 all performing worse than the peak of the Global Financial Crisis / Great Recession contraction (see green entry in the chart above).


As before the COVID19 crisis, Eeurozone economy is performing woefully. On no time horizon did Euro area manage to achieve average annual growth of 2% (chart above).



11/8/20: McKinsey on Changes in Economic Outlook

 

McKinsey have a neat summary of changes in economic outlook across major global regions:



A more granular perspective is from consensus forecasts, as summarized by the Focus Economics and by other sources:



The above are from my presentation deck from earlier today for a Dublin-based conference. 

The key to all of the above is that we are still in a very complex, highly uncertain forecasting environment, and behavioural differences between professional forecasters, economic analysts and business practitioners are vast, reflecting on overall forecasts and outlook sentiments reported.