Monthly Archives: January 2020

Специализированная обувь из кожи, ЭВА, ПВХ

Приветствую всех читающих эту статью! Сегодня я хочу раскрыть тему о специализированной обуви из ЭВА, кожи и ПВХ! Выбрать подходящую обувь дело не лёгкое, ведь хочется что бы обувь была качественной, выглядела молодёжно и модно, и цена не кусалась ! Из всех материалов конечно лучше всего выбрать кожу! У этого материала свои преимущества-это один из самых надёжных и износоустойчивых материалов который довольно прочный! Ещё один огромный плюс это то что настоящая кожа подходит для всех сезонов потому что летом ноги не будут преть так как кожа дышит, а зимой отлично готова к холодам, но для каждого сезона есть свои модели, не стоит забывать об этом ! Конечно цена настоящей, натуральной кожи не так мала как из иного материала, но натуральный материал ни теряет свой внешний вид и долго сохраняет качества если конечно за ним правильно ухаживать !

Если же вы все таки не решились купить обувь из натуральной кожи по той или иной причине, то можете рассмотреть так же материал хорошего качества-ЭВА! Это конечно не натуральная кожа, но тоже отличный материал со своими преимуществами, для начала начнём с того что цена не так кусается как обувь из натуральной кожи, и вес намного легче и «воздушнее»! Сам по себе материал ЭВА облегчённый и один из самых больших плюсов то что этот материал отлично обладает теплоизоляционными свойствами ! Второй важный плюс это почти полная защита от влаги ! Есть достаточно много моделей из водонепроницаемой ткани и зимой в мороз и слякоть ваши ноги останутся сухими в тепле и уюте! Третий огромный плюс это то что обувь такого типа можно найти с огромным выбором и дизайном на любой вкус и цвет, именно такую как вы искали! И ещё раз хотелось бы подчеркнуть то что этот материал имеет малый вес и по сравнению с другими просто «воздушный» !

Если же вас не устраивает ни первый ни второй вариант, то есть ещё один отличный материал который должен подойти для вас! Это ПВХ, а точнее Поливинилхлорид, у этого материала как у других есть свои преимущества ! Начнём с того что цена его меньше всего, но качество за эти деньги не худшее ! Этот материал конечно не такой легкий как ЭВА и не такой прочный как кожа, но он стоит дешевле чем из материала ЭВА и не такой тяжёлый как из кожи ! Резиновая обувь конечно не подходит для ежедневной носки, но в дождливые времена года это то что нужно, особенно если одеть тёплый шерстяной носок под низ! При выборе моделей из такого материала стоит обратить внимание на то что бы, когда вы обувались вам ничего негде не жало и не было узко! Стоит учесть то что резина не растягивается и лучше брать на размер больше с учётом тёплого носка! Как и у любой другого материала у этого есть свои плюсы и минусы не стоит об этом забывать и вот это я считаю единственный минус ! Давайте подведём выводы:выберите себе тот материал который вам больше всего нравится, и в котором будет комфортно и цены не будут кусаться! А купить специализированную обувь лучше всего здесь https://bars-profi.ru/

Inventions in Everything: Space Age Baby Delivery

Welcome to a new series of Inventions in Everything! The IIE team is rested and ready to plunge once again into the amazing world of human ingenuity, featuring some of the most unbelievable inventions that have ever been devised.

Unbelievable may be an understatement for today's featured invention, for which U.S. Patent No. 3,216,423 was issued to inventors George and Charlotte Blonsky on 9 November 1965.

That date is key for understanding the environment in which the inventions was made, coming as America was in the heat of the space race on its way to the first Moon landings. Inventors across America were turning their attention to the technology of space and what it promised for creating a better life. For the Blonskys, that meant introducing the world to their concept of a better way to bring a new life into the world, which required they patent their "apparatus for facilitating the birth of a child by centrifugal force".

We're not making this up! In the 1960s, NASA's astronauts were using large centrifuges in their training to prepare for the forces they would encounter in space travel, much like the two physicists who got to ride in a modern centrifuge did in this 2-1/2 minute video from 2014:

The Blonskys believed those kinds of forces could be applied toward assisting women as they give birth, which would provide several benefits for that process, which they describe in their patent's introduction:

The present invention relates to apparatus which utilizes centrifugal force to facilitate the birth of a child at less stress to the mother.

It is known, that due to natural anatomical conditions, the fetus needs the application of considerably propelling force to enable it to push aside the constricting vaginal walls, to overcome the friction of the uteral and vaginal surfaces and to counteract the atmospheric pressure opposing the emergence of the child. In the case of a woman who has a fully developed muscular system and has had ample physical exertion all through the pregnancy, as is common with all more primitive peoples, nature provides all the necessary equipment and power to have a normal and quick delivery. This is not the case, however, with more civilized women who often do not have the opportunity to develop the muscles needed in confinement.

It is the primary purpose of the present invention to provide an apparatus which will assist the under-equipped woman by creating a gentle, evenly distributed, properly directed, precision-controlled force, that acts in unison with and supplements her own efforts.

In accordance with the invention, there is provided rotatable apparatus capable of subjecting the mother and the fetus to a centrifugal force directed to assist and supplement the efforts of the mother so that such centrifugal force and her efforts act in concert to overcome the action of resisting forces and facilitate delivery of the child.

Did we mention we may have stumbled across one of the most insufficiently informed and misogynistic patents ever filed?

The Blonskys' concept for a birthing centrifuge more resembles a modified playground merry-go-round, with the mother-to-be's head positioned at the center of rotation and her body positioned radially outward, as illustrated in Figure 1 of their patent:

U.S. Patent No. 3,216,423 Figure 1

George and Charlotte Blonsky go on to describe how they expected a g-force assisted birth would take place:

During the operation, the operator gradually speeds up the machine to the predetermined force which is expected to produce the birth of the child, and if such force does not accomplish this, he does not exceed it, unless the physician decides to go the higher g's. He cannot, however, go beyond the maximum g's for which the machine has been set without causing the governor (105) to shut down the machine. When in the operation of the machine, the operator reaches a rate of rotation at which the combination of pressures produced both by the created centrifugal force and by the mother exceed the childbirth resisting forces (friction and constriction), the movement of the fetus occurs and the child is delivered into the net (88). While in the net, the child is still subjected to the action of centrifugal force and is caused by such force to firmly press against the elastic bottom of the net (88). As the elastic cables (89) and the net give somewhat to this force which is equal to the weight of the child multiplied by the number of g's it is subjected to, the cotton wad (97) in the net is pressed by the child against the switch lever (93) which is actuated to cut the power from the motor (15) and may be utilized to activate an electric bell, announcing the event. The operator then applies the handbrake (18) to gently bring the machine to a complete stop.

At this point, the Inventions in Everything team would like to point out that spinning at 31.2 revolutions per minute (rpm) would be enough to generate 1 g of centrifugal force. That's quite fast when we're talking about the rotational speed of such a large diameter merry-go-round type contraption, and potentially a safety hazard to the physician and technicians operating the childbirth-assisting centrifuge. Fortunately, the Blonskys took care to address that risk to the birthing team in their patent:

For safety sake, the machine is enclosed in an annular fence (115) capable of excluding all personnel from the reach of the revolving deck (28).

Because the one thing a mother who is most concerned about delivering a healthy baby into a net wants in case there are any complications while she is strapped to a rotating platform is for the physician to be safely on the opposite side of a fence until the birthing centrifuge ride they are on comes to a complete stop. Then again, having all the blood race away from her head during the most critical portion of the procedure would reduce her ability to remain conscious without the need for any anesthesia, so perhaps such concerns wouldn't be on her mind at that point.

Once again, we're not making any of this up! To the best of our knowledge, the Blonskys' apparatus for facilitating the birth of a child by centrifugal force has never been built, nor are we aware of any childbirth that involved spinning the mother on a rotating platform to assist the birth of a baby. But maybe we missed that episode of House, M.D.

Inventions in Everything: The Archives

Ready to sample more of the most creative designs and patents the Inventions in Everything team has explored? Our archives celebrate inventions ranging from the whimsical to the inspired in reverse chronological order!

Australian Politics 2020-01-31 08:12:00

Uncategorized

Victoria power emergency: SA interconnector cut as heat soars

Australia’s power operator called on Victoria to prepare short-term emergency electricity reserves after South Australia was separated from the national grid, cutting a vital source of supply amid sweltering weather conditions.

The Heywood interconnector linking Victoria and South Australia was cut at 1.24pm, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

That left South Australia islanded from the rest of the market, triggering a surge in wholesale prices in the state to the $14,700 per megawatt hour market cap.

AEMO then activated the last ditch power mechanism at 1.51pm — known as the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader — in a bid to maintain power system security using reserve supplies and demand management contracts previously agreed with the market.

A level two ‘lack of reserve’ was also declared in Victoria on Friday afternoon as a signal for the market to direct urgent electricity supplies to the grid through either a boost in supplies or large industrial businesses cutting demand.

Shortly after the interconnector was cut, Alcoa’s giant Portland smelter was also understood to have been forced offline potentially helping to ease the tight market in Victoria by reducing about 600 megawatts of demand on the system.

South Australia had been exporting about the same level of supply to Victoria at the time of the separation, consultant GlobalRoam tweeted.

“South Australia was exporting to Victoria at the time. The loss of supply almost exactly matched by a 600MW drop in Victoria, presumably Alcoa’s Portland smelter,” GlobalRoam managing director Paul McArdle said.

Portland’s owner, Alcoa, confirmed the outage.

“At approximately 2:20pm on 31 January, Portland Aluminium smelter lost power to both potlines due to a fault external to the plant. The cause of the fault is currently unknown,” an Alcoa spokeswoman told The Australian.

Portland’s owner, Alcoa, was not immediately available to comment.

The market operator boosted its emergency back-up supplies earlier in December across the nation’s power grid to help avoid potential electricity cuts this summer as extreme heat and the ongoing threat of bushfires place the system under pressure.

Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Queensland gained access to 1500 megawatts of RERT power reserves to cover the risk of high temperatures and unplanned generation outages and ensure compulsory load shedding is avoided during periods of peak demand.

Two-thirds of the supply is for Victoria and South Australia and the remainder covering NSW and Queensland to cover risks to the grid.

‘Cut use urgently’

Earlier on Friday Victorians were asked to urgently cut their electricity use this afternoon to ward off potential blackouts, with soaring heat and humidity tipped to push the state’s power demand to a six-year high.

The Australian Energy Market Operator, which runs the national power grid, called for households to reduce their electricity usage between 1pm and 8pm on Friday in a bid to avert forced outages.

Electricity demand is forecast to hit its highest levels since January 2014 due to the combination of heat and humidity.

Consumers have been urged to use air conditioners only at higher temperatures, avoid running dishwashers and switch off pool pumps.

“While AEMO is not currently forecasting supply shortfalls or the need for involuntary load shedding, heatwave conditions that drive high electricity demand, combined with unplanned generation or transmission outages, could result in electricity disruptions,” the operator said in a statement.

AGL Energy’s Loy Yang A coal plant in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley suffered a temporary outage at one of its units just after 6pm on Thursday, piling pressure on the state’s fragile grid at a time of peak demand.

The unit has returned to service but Victoria’s Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said ageing coal plants and stress on transmission lines were partly to blame for the tight situation.

“Today Victoria’s power supply will be very tight due to hot weather. There are many variables that can affect power supply including bushfires, stress on transmission lines and ageing coal plants that can fail with no notice, like we saw last night,” Ms D’Ambrosio said in reference to Loy Yang.

Extra electricity reserves have been contracted by AEMO in an attempt to avoid compulsory cuts.

“AEMO has contracted additional electricity reserves, however, should these be insufficient to manage unexpected outages of generation or electricity transmission assets, load shedding may be required as an absolute last resort to avert the risk of system collapse, physical damage to parts of the power system or long-term outages to residents and businesses,” AEMO said.

Victoria and South Australia both endured a tighter than expected power market on Thursday night as hot weather triggered soaring electricity demand.

The Loy Yang outage, along with the powering down of solar for the night and a low contribution from wind farms meant power supplies struggled to meet demand, according to Paul McArdle at consultancy GlobalRoam.

Demand across the national electricity market at 5pm on Friday is forecast to reach within 500 megawatts of the all-time record, according to Mr McArdle.

While the focus remains on Victoria given a forecast high of 40 degrees in Melbourne on Friday, NSW also faces a tight market with coal units out at AGL’s Bayswater and Liddell plants and EnergyAustralia’s Mt Piper facility in the state, GlobalRoam said.

The heatwave is also expected to move north over the weekend, with central and western NSW surpassing 40C.

SOURCE  


Australian Politics 2020-01-30 15:34:00

Uncategorized


Row over Bettina Arndt’s honour

Social commentator and men’s rights advocate Bettina Arndt has hit back after Victoria’s attorney-general called for her to be stripped of her Australia Day honour.

Over the weekend, Ms Arndt was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia (AM) — Australia’s third-highest civic honour — for striving to achieve “gender equity through advocacy for men”.

The journalist and sex therapist was criticised in 2018 when she interviewed convicted sex offender Nicolaas Bester and has been outspoken against what she believes is a “fake rape crisis” at Australian universities.

In response, Labor’s Jill Hennessy, who is also state minister for workplace safety, has written to Governor-General David Hurley after the Australia Day Honours list was published on Sunday saying she was alarmed at the appointment.

Ms Arndt has blasted the letter as “gobsmacking” and “absolutely hilarious”.

Ms Hennessy’s letter, dated January 28 and posted on her Facebook page, recognises the honours are decided with the recommendation of an independent council but asks why Ms Ardnt was included.

“Taking into account Ms Arndt’s well-documented opinions, public commentary and media appearances — which include sympathising with a convicted paedophile and blaming and shaming victims — this award is an insult to victims of sexual abuse and to those of us who work hard every day to prevent it,” she wrote.

Ms Hennessy also pointed to the issue of family violence.

“I would ask that the Council of the Order of Australia consider cancellation of Ms Arndt’s award given that her public commentary brings the Order into disrepute and in particular that it attaches the Order’s tacit support to her views,” she wrote.

Ms Ardnt said Ms Hennessy should be ashamed.

“Shame on Victoria’s first law officer, Jill Hennessy, the Victorian Attorney-General for responding to muckraking from ideologues rather than seeking proper evidence,” she posted on Twitter.

She posted this morning: “She shows my main crime was defending men and telling the truth about women’s role in family violence.”

This all comes as the New Matilda questioned Ms Arndt’s credentials — writing that she was not a doctor, had never obtained a PhD and nor was she a psychologist or clinical psychologist.

The publication claimed she “has actively participated in the promotion of material which portrays her falsely as a psychologist, clinical psychologist and doctor”.

On Facebook overnight, Ms Arndt hit back at the story, calling it a “hit job”.

“I am not currently a practising psychologist. However, that was certainly my professional training when I started my career in the 1970s. I have postgraduate qualifications in clinical psychology,” she wrote.

“It’s common practice for well-known people to use labels that include their professional background. According to the authorities regulating professional practice for psychologists, I am not doing anything wrong.”

Former Australian of the Year and family violence survivor Rosie Batty, whose young son was murdered by her mentally ill ex-husband, earlier this week questioned the legitimacy of the appointment.

“I cannot help but be appalled that someone who minimised violence towards women who is part of the inevitable push-back and backlash that we all experience as we pioneer a way forward, would be awarded,” Ms Batty told news.com.au.

Upon receiving her honour, Ms Arndt told news.com.au she had been writing about men’s issues for 30 years.

She said she started off as a feminist and campaigning for women’s rights, but became “increasingly alarmed” by the movement.

“I felt in many areas, women had achieved equality,” she said. “We had a lot to celebrate. But there are many who wanted to extend women’s rights well beyond any notion of equality.

“It’s now all about male bashing, trying to advantage women over men in so many areas. I had enough of that.

“I don’t think it’s fair that a small, noisy minority group in our society closes down discussion on issues that affect half the population.”

SOURCE  






Crackdown targets protection visa scam

A crackdown on foreigners trying to enter Australia illegally and ­exploit protection visas has ­resulted in a huge spike in interceptions at overseas airports and passengers being kicked off flights, with the new approach stopping 1730 arrivals in 2018-19.

Australian Border Force has ramped up operations at international flight terminals, targeting individuals carrying fraudulent documents and those who have lied about or obscured their genuine reasons for travel.

Protection claims by Malaysian and Chinese citizens have also declined sharply in the first six months of 2019-20 as the ABF and Department of Home Affairs use intelligence threat assessments, improved alert systems and risk profiles to stop foreigners aiming to prolong their stay.

Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge said Australian authorities were working with ­regional partners, including ­Malaysia, to curb the number of unfounded protection claims.

The Australian can reveal that, in 2018-19, ABF officers intercepted 387 people at international airports around the world who were attempting to travel to Australia without proper documentation. This compared with just 205 in 2017-18, representing an 89 per cent increase.

There were also “significant ­increases” in people offloaded from flights to Australia based on recommendations from ABF officers, amid concerns these individuals had lied about their genuine reasons for travel.

In 2018-19, there were 1343 passengers offloaded by airlines based on advice from Border Force officers compared with 555 passengers in 2017-18 — a 142 per cent increase.

Mr Tudge said Australia had one of the most “generous ­humanitarian programs in the world” but warned that too many people had tried to take advantage of the system by falsely claiming they needed protection.

“We settle thousands of people in desperate need every year,” Mr Tudge said.

“Some people unfortunately seek to exploit our international obligations by lodging protection claims onshore which have no foundation — this issue is not new and is not unique to ­Australia.

“These individuals use our legal system to deliberately prolong their stay in Australia even when they have no prospects of success.”

There was a 19 per cent decline in protection lodgments from Malaysian citizens in the first six months of 2019-20, with 3410 claims being made compared with 4191 in the first six months of 2018-19.

There was also a decline of 16 per cent in protection lodgments from Chinese citizens over the same period, with 2106 claims made in the first six months of 2019-20 compared with 2506 in the first six months of 2018-19.

Other measures implemented by the ABF and the Department of Home Affairs to strengthen the integrity of Australia’s visa and immigration systems included the cancellation of visas of “non-genuine travellers” ahead of ­arrival. The ABF and department are also actively responding to ­increases in fraud and noncompliance by increasing scrutiny of visa applications.

Mr Tudge said co-operation with regional partners combined with border protection measures “before, at and after the Australian border” had reduced the number of claims coming from known international hot spots.

Countering Labor’s claims of a surge in asylum-seekers arriving by air, the government said less than 0.25 per cent of people who arrived in Australia by plane went on to apply for protection and, of them, about 90 per cent were ­refused. Mr Tudge said that, in the last three years of the previous Labor government, 6900 permanent protection visas were granted to people who arrived by air. In the past three years under the ­Coalition, 4780 visas were ­granted.

Protection visas allow holders to live, work and study in Australia permanently and sponsor eligible family members for permanent residency through the offshore humanitarian program.

For permanent visas, asylum-seekers escaping persecution or harm in their home countries must have arrived legally in Australia and meet health, character and security requirements.

Others attempting to secure protection visas are motivated to prolong their stays in Australia, seek employment and a better quality of life.

Analysis of Department of ­Immigration and Border Protection data shows Malaysian and Chinese citizens topped the list of protection visa lodgments ahead of those from India, Thailand, Fiji, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and The Philippines.

Of the protection visas granted by citizenship, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Libya and China top the list. Only 11 per cent of protection visa cases finalised in 2018-19 were successful.

A monthly update for December released by the department revealed a total of 2219 protection visas were lodged last month. There were 997 refugee status ­determinations made and 75 ­individuals granted a final ­protection visa, with Turkey, Venezuela, Iran and Afghanistan topping the list.

The Coalition last year successfully won Senate crossbench support to repeal the medivac law, which allowed asylum-seekers to be transported to Australia on the advice of doctors. Opposition home affairs spokeswoman Kristina Keneally has clashed with the government over her claims that people-smugglers have “changed their business model from boats to planes”.

The Administrative Appeals Tribunal continues to be flooded by appeals from people seeking protection visas, who have been rejected, with some still being processed from Labor’s legacy caseload.

In recent cases, many involving Afghan citizens, asylum-seekers have been citing violence and blood feuds in attempts to overturn refusals of their visa ­applications.

SOURCE  






Politicized charities

Don't give them a cent

Four of Australia’s leading international aid organisations have urged the Morrison Government to take major climate change action amid the country’s bushfire crisis.

World Vision Australia, Oxfam Australia, Plan International Australia and Save the Children Australia have joined forces to issue a plea for stronger climate measures.

The group wants more ambitious emission reduction targets to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C, warning many countries will face unmanageable suffering and devastation if more isn’t done.

“The time for debate about climate change is over, it is now time for action. We cannot afford to waste any more time,” it said in a statement on Tuesday.

The organisations have called on Australia to demonstrate strong leadership on climate action and transition to a low-emissions global economy, support reforestation programs and build the capacity of vulnerable communities in Australia and overseas to deal with the ravages of climate change.

The four charities have called for the Coalition government to sign the Intergovernmental Declaration on Children, Youth and Climate Action.

“Our organisations acknowledge that this issue is so pressing, we must advocate in alliance to amplify the voices of the world’s most vulnerable people,” the joint statement says.

The Australian arms of World Vision, Oxfam, Plan and Save the Children describe climate change as a human rights issue impacting on health and an adequate standard of living.

“Every day, our aid workers see the very real and devastating impact of climate change on the world’s most vulnerable people,” the aid alliance says.

The group pointed to a food crisis in southern African, severe floods in Indonesia and a 2018 deadly cyclone in Mozambique.

“Now the climate emergency has well and truly arrived at home, too,” the alliance continued.

“Australians are suffering through the devastating ongoing fallout from our worst fire season on record, with dozens of lives, thousands of homes and more than a billion creatures lost.

“Fires continue to rage and millions are breathing in hazardous air across three states.” Climate action has been brought into sharp focus by Australia’s deadly bushfires with the issue sparking tensions within the coalition.

SOURCE 





Franking credit plan stank

LABOR leader Anthony Albanese has officially dumped the party's election-killing franking credits hit as he embarks on a major policy reset ahead of the next federal poll. Mr Albanese told The Courier Mail the policy — a major contributor to Labor's shock loss under Bill Shorten in May last year — would go. "We won't be taking the same policy to the next election," he said, acknowledging the plan to abolish cash refunds for individuals and super funds deeply worried retirees.

 Mr Albanese said he was determined to be collaborative and ensure proper processes were followed for Labor to develop its policies. But he said the franking credits policy, which would have saved the Budget about $5 billion a year, would go.

It was the first of the Shorten-era policies to be formally junked by Mr Albanese, who took over as leader after Mr Shorten stood down following his defeat by Scott Morrison.

Mr Albanese, who on Monday emerged for the first time as preferred prime minister over Mr Morrison in Newspoll, also said he no longer opposed asylum-seeker boat-turnbacks, because "they worked".

He said economic debates had to be won ahead of environmental and social debates. And he urged fellow progressives to ensure they argued their case and "took people with them" when making the case for change.

The franking credits policy which would have abolished cash refunds for retirees who received dividends which had already incurred company tax — would have saved about $55 billion over 10 years, which Labor intended to spend on other social policies. But it proved the most unpopular of Labor's swath of policies.

"One of the things I've been determined to do is to be collaborative and to have proper processes for decision-making" Mr Albanese said.  "But I've indicated certainly that in my view Labor will not be taking the same policy to the next election.  "We'll work through all of the detail of our tax policies.

But something that I've heard very directly from people is
that they had made arrangements based upon the existing rules that were in place. "And they felt it was unfair that we were proposing to change that. "There are a range of people who weren't impacted by it at all who felt that they would be.

"Pensioners who have never held a share in their 'life felt they were going to be impacted." Mr Albanese said there were "issues with the tax system and fairness that need to be dealt with". "But they need to be dealt with in a way that doesn't add to people's insecurity," he said.

"We had an issue at the election of leaving ourselves vulnerable to attacks that we were adding to people's feeling of insecurity. "And I think that the pace of change in the economy, the nature of work, meant that people are worried about the future."

Mr Albanese pulled ahead of Mr Morrison as preferred prime minister 43-39 after trailing him by 14 points when the Newspoll voter survey was last taken in early December.

From the Brisbane "Courier Mail" of 18 January, 2020

 Posted by John J. Ray (M.A.; Ph.D.).    For a daily critique of Leftist activities,  see DISSECTING LEFTISM.  To keep up with attacks on free speech see Tongue Tied. Also, don't forget your daily roundup  of pro-environment but anti-Greenie  news and commentary at GREENIE WATCH .  Email me  here






1 in 28 Chance of U.S. Recession Starting Between Jan-2020 and Jan-2021


The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up its latest two-day meeting on 29 January 2020, signaling they would hold the Federal Funds Rate within its current target range of 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.

That lack of change combines with a U.S. Treasury yield curve whose rolling one-quarter average has steepened on average during the last six weeks since the FOMC's December 2019 meeting, even though the bond market's reaction to the potential economic impact of China's coronavirus crisis has significantly flattened the yield curve since it hit in the last week. All that together means the probability that a new economic recession will someday be determined to have started in the United States between January 2020 and January 2021 has fallen to 1 in 28, or roughly, a 3-4% probability, where the chart below is rounding down from a more precise estimate of roughly 3.5% in its latest update.

U.S. Recession Probability Track Starting 2 January 2014, Ending 29 January 2020

Back on 9 September 2019, those odds had previously peaked at 1 in 9, where if the NBER eventually NBER ever does determine that the national U.S. economy entered into recession in either 2019 or 2020, they will most likely identify a month between September 2019 and September 2020 as its starting point.

These probabilities come from a recession forecasting method developed back in 2006 by Jonathan Wright, which uses the level of the effective Federal Funds Rate and the spread between the yields of the 10-Year and 3-Month Constant Maturity U.S. Treasuries to estimate the probability of recession based on historical data.

While we're now providing this analysis after each of the Federal Open Market Committee' regularly scheduled meetings every six weeks, you don't have to wait for us if you want to get an update on the latest recession odds sooner! Our recession odds reckoning tool is both free and really easy to use. Plug in the most recent data available, or the data that would apply for a future scenario that you would like to consider, and compare the result you get in our tool with what we've shown in the most recent chart we've presented above to get a sense of how the recession odds are changing.

Depending upon how the yield curve behaves over the next several weeks, we may resume presenting updates in this series more frequently. We'll see how that goes.

Previously on Political Calculations

We've been tracking the ebb and flow of heightened recession odds since June 2017 - here are all the posts in our latest recession forecasting series!