12/6/20: Russia COVID19 Update

Updating data for Russia on cases and deaths:

Russian cases trends remain uncomfortably high and showing no indication of a significant moderation. In the last seven days, new case counts cumulatively fell from 70,920 in the period through 05/06/2020 to 61,328 in the period of the seven days through 12/06/2020. Note: I am using ECDC data based on European time of reporting. While notionally, this shows a decline in the number of new cases reported over the seven days period, this decline is not significant enough to herald abatement of the pandemic pressures, nor is it sustained over the longer period of time, yet. 

Omitting the aberrational outlier in the new cases reported on 02/06/2020, current daily new cases counts are very narrowly in line with the daily counts reported starting from May 17, 2020.

In other words, daily cases data does not support a proposition that Russia should be lifting pandemic containment measures at this time.

Death counts are also relatively stable, and once again omitting the reporting outlier on 02/06/2020, Russia's death counts on the daily basis continue to run within the range that has been established since 21/05/2020. 

Here the death rates (adjusted and unadjusted) for per-1,000 cases basis:

Russia continues to report lower per-case death rates than BRIICS peers. In fact, amongst the countries with more than 10,000 cases recorded (50 countries with the highest case numbers), Russia's current death per 1,000 cases rate ranks 44th, with just 6 other countries reporting lower rate. In contrast, Russia ranks 19th highest in the group in the number of cases per 1 million population, and 28th highest in death rate per 1 million population. Interestingly, on the combined ranks measure across three metrics, Russia is statistically 'average' within the group of 50 countries heaviest hit by the pandemic. The same stands for the median (given that data is severely non-Gaussian, we have to consider both, and more).