20/6/20: World COVID Data Update: The Theory of Back to Normal

Relaxation of the Covid19 pandemic restrictions is gaining momentum worldwide, with clusters of renewed concerns over the 'second peak' or 'second wave' dynamics. The problem is that global pandemic numbers remain extremely worrying:

Total new cases are hitting all-time highs:

The orange box represents, roughly, the range of earlier data that triggered the lockdowns. It is clear that worldwide numbers are sustainably above that range. The 7-day running average is horrific and trending up at an accelerating rate. The slope of the current 7-day moving average is now similar to what we observed in the peak period of contagion in Europe.

Total daily deaths are also on the rise, once again:

Once again, the orange box related current deaths to the European lockdowns initiation deaths. The 7-day moving average is on the rise, once again.

Yes, on per-capita basis, the pandemic has moderated, primarily due to different geographies of concentration of new cases and new deaths. However, European lockdowns periods coincided with more robust testing in Europe and in advanced economies in Asia, while current period of globally spiking cases and rising deaths is coincident with less robust public health systems in less developed countries, implying that current numbers are most likely coming from much larger underestimates of actual cases and deaths.