25/9/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27


Updating U.S. and EU27 numbers for COVID19 pandemic for the last 7 days:

Per above chart, the U.S. continues to pull away from EU27 in terms of deaths per capita of population. However, as shown in the chart net, EU27 is now in a full-blown contagion wave number 2, with new cases exceeding prior (wave 1) peaks.

The increase in new cases in Europe is now also reflected in rising death counts. Current EU27 death counts are in excess of the numbers that triggered winter shutdown of the European economies.

Key takeaways from the above:
  • EU27 is now in a full-blown second wave of the pandemic, with case numbers well in excess of anything witnessed during the first wave peak.
  • As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 3 occasions.
  • Despite this, overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above those in the EU27 (as been the case since July 12). Current excess gap at +59,010 up from +40,079 a month ago and +11,917 two months ago. The gap is still rising.
  • EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 303-308 per 1 million prior to August 2, 2020, but is rising once again since then (326.5 currently). U.S. deaths per capita continue to increase (619.9 currently).
  • Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 90 percent above that for the EU27 and this gap is still widening.
  • Currently, adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 96,000 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 is to-date is 100,500 higher than that of the EU27. 
  • Adjustments for differences in demographics between the U.S. and the EU27 would increase the above numbers of excess  mortality even more, while adjusting for the state of public health in the U.S. (obesity, poor nutrition, neglect of chronic conditions etc) will reduce the number. While these factors cannot be directly accounted for in my estimates (I am sure, medical research will be able to do thus), I strongly suspect that the two factors will offset each other. Hence, excess mortality in the U.S. compared to the EU27 stands at around 95-100,000 people. All killed, to a large extent, by the inadequate public health system and policy responses in the U.S.