3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Nordics

Things are getting more complicated in the Nordics in the wake of the unfolding second wave of the pandemic:

The second wave of the pandemic has started first in the Nordics excluding Sweden, but the same wave is now also beginning to manifest itself in Sweden. Adding to the complexity of analysis, Swedish data is now being reported with significant volatility (multiple consecutive '0' observations per week), making higher frequency comparatives basically impossible.

Nonetheless, Sweden is now catching up, once again, with the rest of the Nordics in terms of new cases.  In the last 7 days, Sweden averaged 1,204 cases per day (up on 627 average daily rate of new cases in the two weeks prior). Nordics ex-Sweden averaged (adjusting to Swedish population) 3,228 daily new cases over thee last 7 days, with prior 14 days average of 2,775.

In terms of daily deaths, Sweden currently performs significantly better than the rest of the Nordics. Sweden's average daily deaths run at 0 over the last 7 days and 0.43 deaths per day average over the prior 14 days period. Nordics ex-Sweden (again adjusting to Swedish population) averaged 17 deaths per day in the last 7 days, and 10.6 deaths in thee prior two weeks period. However, this better performance by Sweden is at least in part due to the later start of the second wave of the pandemic in thee country compared to other Nordics.

Overall, for now, excess deaths count in Sweden compared to other Nordics is shrinking, currently at 2,580.

Only time will tell whether thee current second wave dynamics are going to push Sweden once again into the position of being worse-hit by the pandemic than its Nordic counterparts.