Category Archives: BRIC Manufacturing

2/3/15: BRIC Manufacturing PMI: February Marks Slowdown in Growth


BRIC Manufacturing PMIs (individual countries data published by Markit) have posted some renewed weakness in February compared to January.

  • Russian Manufacturing PMIs are covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/03/2315-russian-manufacturing-pmi-february.html
  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 - signifying shallow contraction, down from 50.7 in January. 3 mo average through February is at 50.2 (barely signalling any growth), which is an improvement on 3mo average through November 2014 (49.3) but is weaker than 3mo average through February 2014 (50.5). 
  • China Manufacturing PMI is at 50.7, an improvement on January's 49.7 and breaking previous two-months streak of sub-50 readings. 3mo average is at 50.0, which is weaker than 50,2 3mo average through November 2014, but an improvement on 3mo average through February 2014 (49.5)
  • India Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.2 in February from 52.9 in January, with 3mo average through February at 52.9, which is stronger than 3mo average through November 2014 (52.1) and 3mo average through February 2014 (51.6).
Table below and chart summarise the trends:



8/2/15: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs: one cold January for growth


BRIC PMIs for January are continuing to show divergence in growth dynamics across the four economies, across the two key sectors, and a broad slowdown in growth across majority of the BRIC parameters. Here are some details:

Starting with Manufacturing PMIs:

  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 50.7 from 50.2 in December. Current 3mo average is at 49.9 and this compares as a weak improvement on 49.4 3mo average through October 2014. January 2014 3mo average was 50.3. Across the board - weak growth returned to Brazil's manufacturing, but both m/m and 3mo on 3mo growth improvements were poor.
  • Russian Manufacturing PMI dropped significantly from already contractionary 48.9 in December to strongly contractionary 47.6 in January. 3mo average through January 2015 is at 49.4 and this compares unfavourably to 3mo average through October 2014 at 50.7. However, 3mo average through January 2014 was even worse - at 48.7. Overall, substantial decline in Manufacturing activity as signalled by the PMI reading and second consecutive month of sub-50 readings.
  • China Manufacturing PMI stayed virtually flat at 49.7 in January as compared to 49.6 in December. 3mo average through January is at 49.8, down on 50.6 3mo average reading through October 2014 and on 50.3 3mo average through January 2014. Just as in the case of Russia, Chinese Manufacturing activity posted second consecutive month of sub-50 readings.
  • India Manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.5 in December to 52.9 in January, with 3mo average through January still reading at 53.6 - ahead of 3mo average through October 2014 (52.0), and ahead of 3mo average through January 2014 (51.1).
  • Overall, India (-1.6 points), and Russia (-1.3 points) posted declines in Manufacturing PMIs in January compared to December 2014, while Brazil (+0.5 points) and China (+0.1 points) posted increases. Declines outstripped increases by a wide margin and two economies (China and Russia) posted sub-50 readings. 
  • Conclusion: BRIC manufacturing sectors are still suffering from weak growth conditions, with Russia being the weakest, followed by China, and with very anaemic growth in Brazil and slowing growth in India.
Chart and summary table below:



Services PMIs covered in the next post.