Category Archives: personal finance

Bending the Health Care Cost Curve Ever Upward

Did the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. "Obamacare") succeed in making health care more affordable for the average American household?

Data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey says... no!

Change in Average Annual Health Care Expenditure per Consumer Unit (Household) Since 2008, 2008-2016

Update 1 June 2018: The vertical dashed line in the chart indicates a break in the U.S. Census Bureau's methodology for collecting information about health insurance coverage that was implemented after 2013, where data in the periods before and after this change are not strictly comparable to each other. That said, the Consumer Expenditure Survey's data since 2013 confirms that the Affordable Care Act has failed to restrain the growth of average health insurance costs by American households during the period that it has been in effect.

Although the chart above focuses on what happened after it took effect, in reality, the health care cost curve began bending upward almost immediately after the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, leaving millions of Americans who had been promised by the ACA's supporters that it would reduce the cost of their health insurance sorely disappointed.

But that disappointment didn't extend to the people who owned stock in the U.S.' major health insurers, such as Centene (NYSE: CNC), United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH), WellCare (NYSE: WCG), Cigna (NYSE: CI), Humana (NYSE: HUM), Aetna (NYSE: AET), Molina (NYSE: MOH) and Anthem (NYSE: ANTM), where the Affordable Care Act has been a government-granted license to print money since it went into effect after 2013....

Percentage Change in Health Insurer Stock Prices from 2 January 2008 through 25 May 2018

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditure Survey. Multiyear Tables. [PDF Documents: 2008-2012, 2013-2016]. Accessed 28 May 2018. [Note: Data for 2017 will become available in September 2018.]

Afterword

Added 4 June 2018: Here's a neat chart that accompanied a September 2017 Motley Fool article by Keith Speights:

Average Annual Health Insurance Costs for Family Coverage, Premiums and Deductibles, 2008-2017 - Source: https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/contributors/2017/09/08/access-health-insurance-but-can-we-afford-it/636570001/

The cost of health insurance, both in premiums and in deductibles, jumped considerably after 2013 when the Affordable Care Act went into effect.

How Much Do You Need to Save for Retirement? (Part 2)

U.S. Average Annual Household Expenditures by Age Group, 2016

In our first installment of this series, we approached the question of "how much do you need to save for retirement?" by considering how much money you would need to accumulate in your savings or retirement accounts to effectively replace your annual income after you retire. In this installment, we're going to focus instead on how much you plan to spend each year after you've stopped working to identify your lifetime savings target.

That's an important difference to consider, because if you have developed the kind of frugal and thrifty habits it takes to build a comfortable nest egg where your personal spending is concerned, the odds are that the answer to the question will be much smaller, and much more realistically attainable, than the answer that would belong to someone who lives a less financially disciplined life.

Here, we'll start with the amount of money that you want to spend each year in retirement and figure out how much you would need to save after taking the monthly retirement benefits you might get from Social Security into account (you can find out that number directly from Social Security), which will give us the minimum savings target you will need for your savings and retirement accounts. We'll be applying the simple math that lies behind the Four Percent Rule to find that number, where our tool below will let you set the percentage of money that you would seek to withdraw from your retirement account each year if you would prefer to be more conservative, as some advisers recommend.

We'll also consider something that a lot of retirement advisers haven't yet been taking into account for their clients - what will happen when those benefits are cut as promised under current law by 23-27% after the year 2033 when Social Security's Trust Fund is projected to run out of money, which is just 15 years away at this writing.

The fun starts with our tool below, where you're more than welcome to change any of the default values we've entered to consider whatever retirement spending scenario you would like to consider! [If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click here to access a working version of the tool.]

Spending, Social Security, and Retirement Withdrawal Data
Input Data Values
Annual Spending In Retirement
Monthly Social Security Retirement Benefit
Percentage of Retirement Savings to Withdraw Each Year After Retiring
Percentage that Social Security Benefits Will Be Cut After Trust Fund is Depleted

Total Retirement Savings Target
Calculated Results Values
Amount Needed Before Social Security Cuts
Amount Needed After Social Security Cuts

In case you're wondering about the default data, $45,786 is the average amount of annual household expenditures for Americans Age 65 or older in 2016, which comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau's annual Consumer Expenditure Survey. Data for 2017 will become available in September 2018.

To find out if you're on track to hit your personal retirement savings target indicated by our tool, assuming that you've found the results from our tool to be reasonable for your retirement planning scenario, please take advantage of the tool we provided with our first installment.

Perhaps the biggest wild card in our tool's results to consider is what will happen to Social Security after the trust fund that is currently boosting the retirement benefits that it is paying out by about 20-25% runs out of money and it switches back to a pay-out-only-what-it-takes-in type program. It's possible that politicians will strike a deal to keep those payments from being cut, which would more likely than not mean higher payroll taxes.

Alternatively, they could continue doing what they started doing under President Obama and begin cutting Social Security "loopholes" benefits in small installments to more sustainable levels for the government. [Note: We put "loopholes" in quotes because that's how the politicians described cutting the Social Security benefits that earlier politicians had specifically set up to work exactly as they were used by Social Security beneficiaries. Funny how that works!]

Otherwise, big Social Security benefit cuts will arrive all at once, as soon as Social Security's Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund runs out of cash.

Finally, if you're looking for ways to cut your expenses after retirement that involve little in the way of sacrificing your quality of life, Paul Katzeff of Investor's Business Daily has four suggestions.




The Bottom Line for Your 2018 Paycheck After the Tax Cuts

Pay Advice Example - Source: U.S. Department of Labor - https://blog.dol.gov/sites/blog.dol.gov/files/images/2015/01/johnsmith.jpeg

How much will your net take home pay change because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 becoming law?

This is the third of three tools that we've built to do paycheck-related math in 2018, and is the only one that goes straight to the bottom line in showing how different your take home pay may be because of the new tax law. If you want greater detail into all the major parts of where your money goes in your paycheck, be sure to check out the previous two tools that we've developed:

In this version, we've stripped down the inputs and outputs to just the bare essentials, just to get at the bottom line answer that many Americans are seeking. Please enter the indicated information into the table below, click "Calculate" to get your results, and hopefully, you'll be pleased by the results. [If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version.]

Your Paycheck and Tax Withholding Data
Category Input Data Values
Basic Pay Data Current Annual Pay
Pay Period
Federal Withholding Data Filing Status
Number of Withholding Allowances
401(k) or 403(b) Contributions Pre-Tax Contributions (%)
After Tax Contributions (%)
Flexible Spending Account Annual Contribution Data Health Care Spending Account
Dependent Care Spending Account

Federal Income Tax Withholding Estimates
Calculated Results Values
Before 2018's Tax Cuts Take Effect
After 2018's Tax Cuts Take Effect
How Each of Your Paychecks Will Change (Positive if increase, Negative if decrease)
Change Multiplied Over All Paychecks for an Entire Year
Equivalent Tax-Free "Raise" With Respect to Annual Income

Previously on Political Calculations

We've been in the business of calculating people's paychecks (not including state income tax withholding) since 2005!




Your Paycheck in 2018, After the Tax Cuts Kick In

Uncle Sam: You are the one who earned it - Keep more of your paycheck

How much of your paycheck will you be allowed to keep for yourself in 2018 after a less greedy Uncle Sam has extracted what he wants out of it to put into his own till?

For many Americans, that has been something of a burning question ever since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law before Christmas, where we have had to wait until the IRS issued an official notice of what will be the nation's new income tax withholding rates will be going forward on Wednesday, 9 January 2018. U.S. employers have been instructed to implement the new tax withholding rates as soon as possible, but by no later than 15 February 2018 (if your employer needs time to change their paycheck processing system, please click here to access the "before the tax cuts" version of this tool!)

In fact, you'll probably want to visit that tool specifically to get that information so you can determine how much your take home pay is changing as a direct result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. After you have that information, plug the same information into the tool below, and we'll estimate what your paycheck will look like after the tax cuts have kicked in.

But wait, that's not all! Because a growing number of major U.S. employers have announced that they'll be giving many of their employees raises as direct result of the tax cuts being passed into law, you'll be pleased to know that our tool below can also take your raise into account too!

We can also answer other paycheck-related math questions that might be important to you, such as:

  • What if I boost my pre-tax 401(k) or 403(b) retirement plan contributions - how will that change my take home pay?
  • Will I take a hit from the Additional Medicare Tax? [That's the "shared responsibility contribution" that doesn't ever go into Medicare's trust funds, which can affect higher income earners.]
  • How would a flexible savings account for health care or dependent care expenses affect my take home pay?

Our tool below is designed to answer those questions, as well as a number of others that may occur to you that we haven't considered! Just enter the indicated information as it applies for you, and we'll do our best to estimate how much of the money you work hard to earn will still be in your possession after the federal government has withheld what it wants from your paycheck! [If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version.]

Your Paycheck and Tax Withholding Data
Category Input Data Values
Basic Pay Data Current Annual Pay
Pay Period
Federal Withholding Data Filing Status
Number of Withholding Allowances
401(k) or 403(b) Contributions Pre-Tax Contributions (%)
After Tax Contributions (%)
Flexible Spending Account Annual Contribution Data Health Care Spending Account
Dependent Care Spending Account
What if You Had a Raise? Desired Raise (%)















Your "Typical" Paycheck Data
Category Calculated Results Values
Basic Income Data Proposed Annual Salary (Including Raise!)
Typical Paycheck Amount
Federal Tax Withholding Amounts U.S. Federal Income Taxes
U.S. Social Security Taxes
U.S. Medicare Taxes
U.S. Additional "Medicare" Taxes (If Applicable)
401(k) or 403(b) Contributions Pre-Tax Contributions
After-Tax Contributions
Total Contributions
Flexible Spending Account Contributions Health Care Spending Account
Dependent Care Spending Account
Your Paycheck's Bottom Line
Take Home Pay Estimate Basic Net Paycheck Amount
... But, After Social Security's Taxable Income Cap Is Reached, It Becomes (If Applicable, for a Full Paycheck)
... And Then, After Additional Medicare Tax Income Threshold Is Reached, It Becomes (If Applicable, for a Full Paycheck)

Now for some quick results. For the default annual income of $36,000 with all the other default settings in place including having taxes withheld at the Single filing status and Biweekly paychecks, we estimate that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would increase the take-home income of a person with that income by $34.74 per paycheck. Multiplied by 26 paychecks in a year, that represents and increase in take-home pay of 903.24, the equivalent of a tax free raise of 2.5% with respect to a pre-tax income of $36,000.

Just for fun, we did the exact same math, but for an annual income of $50,000. Here, we found that take home pay increased by $59.16 per paycheck, or $1,538.16 per year, which works out to be the equivalent of a tax-free raise of 3.07%.

And because we couldn't just leave it there, we also ran the numbers for an annual income of $400,000 that is paid out quarterly, which just happens to currently be the annual salary of the President of the United States (which President Trump donates to various causes). Thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, and assuming all the other default settings, President Trump's after federal withholding tax income rises by $61.44 per quarterly paycheck, which would nets him an additional $245.76 per year and is the equivalent of a tax-free raise of slightly over 0.06%. [Note: These figures apply until the President's cumulative income exceeds certain thresholds - keep reading....]

Now that we've given you a sense of how much money you'll have withheld in 2018 from each of your paychecks by the U.S. federal government, at least until the new tax cuts take hold, we should note that there are some really complicating factors that may come into play during the year depending upon how much you earn.

For example, in 2018, once you have earned over $128,400, you will no longer have the Social Security payroll tax of 6.2% of your income deducted from your paycheck (or 12.4% if you are self-employed, but our tool above is designed for those employed by others). But then, by the time that happens, you'll have long been paying taxes on your income that are taxed at rates that are at least 10% higher than those paid by over half of all Americans.

There's also the complication provided by the so-called "Additional Medicare Tax" that your employer is required to begin withholding from your paycheck if, and as soon as, your year-to-date income rises above the $200,000 mark, which is part of the extra taxes imposed by the "Affordable Care Act" (a.k.a. "Obamacare"). Since the money collected through this 0.9% surtax on your income does not go to directly support the Medicare program, unlike the real Medicare payroll taxes paid by you and your employer, it is really best thought of as an additional income tax.

In the tool above, in case the amount of your annual 401(k) or 403(b) retirement savings contributions exceed the annual limits set by law, we've limited the results our tool provides to be those consistent with their statutory limits, and will do so as if you specifically set the percentage contributions for these contributions with that in mind. Also, our tool does not consider whether you might take advantage of the "catch-up" provisions in the law that are available to individuals Age 50 or older.

The IRS Is Developing Its Own Withholding Tax Calculator?

Maybe the funniest story we saw yesterday was published by Reuters at 5:18 PM Eastern time. Here's the money quote (emphasis ours):

The Trump administration on Thursday said most U.S. workers will see bigger paychecks in February, as a result of the Republican tax overhaul, but many will need to make sure taxes are withheld accurately with an online calculator that does not yet exist.

Well, we fixed that problem pretty easily now, didn't we? And it only took about an hour of actual work, most of which involved writing up the text that changed from the "before the tax cuts take effect" edition and to add the results of the three income scenarios that we ran. How much do you suppose the IRS' coders are getting paid?

More seriously, we'll be happy to link to the IRS' withholding calculator when they get around to posting it online.

Update 12 January 2018, 8:15 PM EST: Here is where the IRS Withholding Calculator will be able to be found. Although more than 24 hours after Reuters' report, it's not there yet!

Elsewhere on the Web

There are other salary and hourly paycheck calculators like this on the Internet, including the very well done tools available at PaycheckCity.com. We really like PaycheckCity's calculators because they allow you to determine the amount of state income tax withholding that will be taken out of your paycheck separately from what the federal government takes. Meanwhile, payroll processor ADP also has a salary paycheck calculator, but we find the interface for PaycheckCity's calculators are more user-friendly.

Then again, if you live in one of the seven states that have no personal income tax for wage and salary income (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, or Wyoming), our tool above will provide you with a very good estimate of your actual take-home pay.

Previously on Political Calculations

We've been in the business of calculating people's paychecks (not including state income tax withholding) since 2005!




Your Paycheck in 2018, Before the Tax Cuts Kick In

Uncle Sam at the U.S. Cash Register - Adapted from Original Source at U.S. National Archives - https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/liberty-bond-cash-register-512718/

How much of your paycheck will you be allowed to keep for yourself in 2018 after a greedy Uncle Sam has extracted what he wants out of it to put into his own till?

Update: Our tool for calculating Your Paycheck in 2018, After the Tax Cuts Kick In is now up and running, so if you want to see how your paycheck will look *after* the IRS' new tax withholding rules that include the tax cuts for 2018 take effect, check it out!

Thanks to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which was signed into law just before the Christmas holiday, the answer for many Americans is going to be more than they would have without the tax cuts. However, the answer to the question of "how much more?" will depend upon a lot of factors that can vary from one individual paycheck earner to the next.

One of Political Calculations' missions is to build tools to help people easily answer personal finance questions like these, where to be able to answer the full question of "how much more of the money I earn will I see on my paychecks after the tax cuts take effect?" first requires us to work out how much in withholding taxes that the U.S. government will be taking out of each of your paychecks in 2018 before the nation's federal withholding taxes are adjusted to account for the new tax cuts. Those new federal withholding tax rates won't take effect until sometime in February 2017, where we won't find out how much they'll be until they're published sometime later this month.

When they are, we'll present a second tool to do that new paycheck math! And as an extra bonus, we're planning to do a third tool where we'll directly estimate how much your take home pay will change as a result of the new tax cuts, which will firmly answer the question of "how much more?" your paychecks may be as a result of the new tax cuts.

But wait, that's not all! A number of major U.S. employers have already announced that they'll be giving many of their employees raises as direct result of the tax cuts being passed into law. If your employer is one of these firms or will be joining these firms in boosting your earned income, our tool can take your raise into account too!

We can also answer other paycheck-related math questions that might be important to you, such as:

  • What if I boost my pre-tax 401(k) or 403(b) retirement plan contributions - how will that change my take home pay?
  • Will I take a hit from the Additional Medicare Tax? [That's the "shared responsibility contribution" that doesn't ever go into Medicare's trust funds, which can affect higher income earners.]
  • How would a flexible savings account for health care or dependent care expenses affect my take home pay?

Our tool below is designed to answer those questions, as well as a number of others that may occur to you that we haven't considered! Just enter the indicated information as it applies for you, and we'll do our best to estimate how much of the money you work hard to earn will still be in your possession after the federal government has withheld what it wants from your paycheck! [If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, please click through to our site to access a working version.]

Update 17 January 2018: Before you scroll down any further, our tool for calculating Your Paycheck in 2018, After the Tax Cuts Kick In is now live! Alternatively, if you'd like to simply see how much the bottom line of your paycheck will change from the "before" to the "after" tax cut world, our third tool for doing just that bottom line math is now also available!

That said, the tool that now follows in this post is specifically built to do your paycheck math *before* the new tax cuts take effect, which will apply to your paychecks before 15 February 2018. After 15 February 2018, the *after* version of our 2018 paycheck math tool will apply....

Your Paycheck and Tax Withholding Data
Category Input Data Values
Basic Pay Data Current Annual Pay
Pay Period
Federal Withholding Data Filing Status
Number of Withholding Allowances
401(k) or 403(b) Contributions Pre-Tax Contributions (%)
After Tax Contributions (%)
Flexible Spending Account Annual Contribution Data Health Care Spending Account
Dependent Care Spending Account
What if You Had a Raise? Desired Raise (%)





















































































Your "Typical" Paycheck Data
Category Calculated Results Values
Basic Income Data Proposed Annual Salary (Including Raise!)
Typical Paycheck Amount
Federal Tax Withholding Amounts U.S. Federal Income Taxes
U.S. Social Security Taxes
U.S. Medicare Taxes
U.S. Additional "Medicare" Taxes (If Applicable)
401(k) or 403(b) Contributions Pre-Tax Contributions
After-Tax Contributions
Total Contributions
Flexible Spending Account Contributions Health Care Spending Account
Dependent Care Spending Account
Your Paycheck's Bottom Line
Take Home Pay Estimate Basic Net Paycheck Amount
... But, After Social Security's Taxable Income Cap Is Reached, It Becomes (If Applicable, for a Full Paycheck)
... And Then, After Additional Medicare Tax Income Threshold Is Reached, It Becomes (If Applicable, for a Full Paycheck)

Now that we've given you a sense of how much money you'll have withheld in 2018 from each of your paychecks by the U.S. federal government, at least until the new tax cuts take hold, we should note that there are some really complicating factors that may come into play during the year depending upon how much you earn.

For example, in 2018, once you have earned over $128,400, you will no longer have the Social Security payroll tax of 6.2% of your income deducted from your paycheck (or 12.4% if you are self-employed, but our tool above is designed for those employed by others). But then, by the time that happens, you'll have long been paying taxes on your income that are taxed at rates that are at least 10% higher than those paid by over half of all Americans.

There's also the complication provided by the so-called "Additional Medicare Tax" that your employer is required to begin withholding from your paycheck if, and as soon as, your year-to-date income rises above the $200,000 mark, which is part of the new income taxes imposed by the "Affordable Care Act" (a.k.a. "Obamacare"). Since the money collected through this 0.9% surtax on your income does not go to directly support the Medicare program, unlike the real Medicare payroll taxes paid by you and your employer, it is really best thought of as an additional income tax.

In the tool above, in case the amount of your annual 401(k) or 403(b) retirement savings contributions exceed the annual limits set by law, we've limited the results our tool provides to be those consistent with their statutory limits, and will do so as if you specifically set the percentage contributions for these contributions with that in mind. Also, our tool does not consider whether you might take advantage of the "catch-up" provisions in the law that are available to individuals Age 50 or older.

Elsewhere on the Web

There are other salary and hourly paycheck calculators like this on the Internet, including the very well done tools available at PaycheckCity.com. We really like PaycheckCity's calculators because they allow you to determine the amount of state income tax withholding that will be taken out of your paycheck separately from what the federal government takes. Meanwhile, payroll processor ADP also has a salary paycheck calculator, but we find the interface for PaycheckCity's calculators are more user-friendly.

Then again, if you live in one of the seven states that have no personal income tax for wage and salary income (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, or Wyoming), our tool above will provide you with a very good estimate of your actual take-home pay.

Previously on Political Calculations

We've been in the business of calculating people's paychecks (not including state income tax withholding) since 2005!