Monthly Archives: April 2020

Median Household Income in February 2020

Political Calculations' estimate of median household income rose 0.3% February 2020, increasing from January 2020's initial estimate of $66,370 to $66,538.

The following chart shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through February 2020. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant January 2020 U.S. dollars.

Median Household Income in the 21st Century: Nominal and Real Modeled Estimates, January 2000 to February 2020

Analyst's Notes

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the personal income data used in our analysis on 27 March 2020, having compiled it earlier in the month, most likely before 13 March 2020, when President Trump declared a national emergency for the coronavirus epidemic and certainly before 19 March 2020, when California imposed the first state-wide stay-at-home orders for residents and the widespread closure of businesses, which marks the beginning of a national recession. Through the end of March 2020, three out of four Americans live in states or regions subject to similar orders.

Given that timing, the February 2020 estimate for median household income represents the last data point in the series that will not be affected by the coronavirus epidemic. We anticipate that future data will be subject to substantial revisions given the extent of the disruption to the U.S. economy, which will make our median household income estimates less accurate until the economic situation stabilizes.

Other Analyst's Notes

Sentier Research has suspended reporting its monthly Current Population Survey-based estimates of median household income, concluding their series with data for December 2019. We'll miss their monthly updates, while we continue to provide the estimates from our alternate methodology.

Statistically, over 240 months from January 2000 through December 2019, our estimates have fallen within 0.9% of Sentier Research's estimates in 70% of observations, within 1.8% in 95.8% of observations and within 2.7% in 99.6% of observations. The greatest deviations between our results and Sentier Research's estimates occurred in October 2000, where our estimate was 3.2% higher than Sentier Research's figure, and in February 2010, where our estimate was 3.1% lower than Sentier Research's figure.

In other words, we have a pretty good model for estimating median household income in the United States, which the coronavirus epidemic and the response to it is going to put to the test.

References

Sentier Research. Household Income Trends: January 2000 through December 2019. [Excel Spreadsheet with Nominal Median Household Incomes for January 2000 through January 2013 courtesy of Doug Short]. [PDF Document]. Accessed 6 February 2020. [Note: We've converted all data to be in terms of current (nominal) U.S. dollars.]

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 13 February 2020. Accessed: 12 March 2020.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 March 2020. Accessed: 27 March 2020.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 March 2020. Accessed: 27 March 2020.




Visualizing the Progression of COVID-19 in the United States

Through 31 March 2020, the United States has tested over 1.1 million Americans for COVID-19 infections in all 50 states and the territories of Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The known results of that testing, including the number of positive, negative and pending test results for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the number of deaths, and also the reported cases severe enough to require hospitalization, are visualized below in the tower chart showing the daily progression of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. since 10 March 2020.

Daily Progression of COVID-19 in the United States, 10 March 2020 through 31 March 2020

In the following chart, we've combined the skyline tower charts illustrating the daily progression of positive COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths for each of the 50 states and the territories of Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, ranking each from worst to best as you read from left to right, top to bottom. All charts are presented covering the same period of time from 10 March 2020 through 31 March 2020 and use the same scale, with the width of the charts representing 0.5% of the state or territory's population, making is easy to quickly visualize in which states the coronavirus infections are concentrated and are spreading the fastest.

Progression of COVID-19 in the United States by State or Territory, 10 March 2020 - 31 March 2020

It appears from the available data that a number of states are not reporting their number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations, with New Jersey, Michigan, the District of Columbia, and Illinois standing out in that category among the top 10 states ranked by share of their population having been infected.

We're also well past the point where it is worthwhile to track the daily progression of COVID-19 in states whose governors have mandated business closures or stay-at-home orders for their residents. Also as of 31 March 2020, three out of four Americans are affected by these restrictions, which have spread far faster than the coronavirus.

Previously on Political Calculations

Update 31 March 2020: Thank you for scrolling all the way down to the bottom of this article! If you're viewing the original version of this article, here's where we will periodically post updates to the national tower chart presented above, or will link to newer posts in the series where you can find updates for all the charts.

Update 29 April 2020: Here's the latest update to the national tower chart showing the cumulative totals:

Daily Progression of COVID-19 in the United States, 10 March 2020 through 29 April 2020

The biggest changes in the daily numbers are coming from the Top 10 states. New York continues to have the largest number of confirmed cases, accounting for nearly a third of all confirmed cases in the U.S. and nearly two-fifths of reported deaths, with New York City and the surrounding counties that make up its greater metropolitan area having the largest share (counties in New Jersey adjacent to New York City have been similarly hard hit, with that state ranking second in the nation). Excluding the extremely high concentration of cases in this region, data from the rest of the U.S. is more similar to that being reported by Germany.

Also, an updated version of the skyline tower chart for individual states and territories is available here, with data through 28 April 2020.