Category Archives: Ukraine SITREP

Ukraine SITREP: Debaltsevo cauldron finally closed?

This time this sure looks official: the Russian TV channel REN-TV  has announced that the Debaltsevo cauldron has been finally closed, just north of the city of Debaltsevo itself and not further north up the highway where this had been expected.  The same reports say that the DNR and LNR forces met, so we are not talking about holding the highway under direct artillery fire anymore, but about Novorussian forces actually digging in across the highway and truly closing it down.  Earlier this evening, Colonel Cassad was reporting the highway still not closed, but if you look at his map, you can clearly see the location where the two forces apparently joined a few hours later (right over the word ДЕБАЛЬЦЕВО).

Map from Colonel Cassad
I took a quick look at militarymaps.info and here is what I saw there:

Debaltsevo on militarymaps.info
On this map the Novorussian units have still not closed the cauldron.  Weird.

So who is right?

My gut feeling that the cauldron has probably been closed.   My guess is that the junta was so concerned about this that it sent two SU-25 to provide close air support to the surrounded junta forces (both aircraft were shot down).  This was probably a last desperate attempt to prevent the cauldron from closing.

We should know soon.

No major developments elsewhere along the line of contact.

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP + open thread

The Saker:

Feeling better, but on the road all day today.  Will resume full-time blogging tomorrow.

Debaltsevo cauldron - still *not* closed:

According to Cassad, the cauldron is still not closed and I trust him.  This being said, the Novorussians are holding the only highway out of the cauldron under their fire and they selectively allow some units to leave (medical, support & staff, for propaganda purposes) while destroying others (combat units).  So even if the cauldron ain't quite closed, the junta forces are de-facto surrounded.  See map (from Cassad):


Novorussian air defenses:

Remember the Tochka-Us shot down over Saur Mogila?  Auslander reported that they had been shot down by (non-Novo) Russian.  Then recently, two junta Tochkas "broke up in mid air".  This time around the Novorussians have admitted that they shot down at least one Tochka.  See the photo (also from Cassad):

Rear section of a Tochka-U ballistic missile
The interesting thing is that Cassad mentions the Russian short range air defense system Pantsir as the system which might have shot down the Tochka.  This is interesting for a number of reasons:

1) The Pantsir is a brand new Russian system.  IF a Pantsir really did this, then the fact that the Novorussians are saying so basically means "Putin is arming us and we ain't even hiding it".  A message to Kiev maybe?

2) The Pantsir is not supposed to be designed to shoot down ballistic missiles.  IF a Pantsir really did this, then it proves that its real capabilities are far larger then its officially advertised ones.

3) If this was NOT a Pantsir, then we go right back to the explanation of last summer: the Russians are "covering" Novorussians with their S-300PMs.

I am personally inclined to believe the that this is what happened.  The Pantsir is a very advanced "combined" (missile+guns) mobile but *point* defense systems designed to shoot down cruise missiles, aircraft and precision weapons.  Ballistic missiles are different due to their speed and flight trajectory.  Whatever may be the case, the fact that the Novorussians admitted that "they" shot down the Tochka is very good news as it shows a degree of confidence which will horrify Kiev.

The 4th Junta mobilization is the 4th one to totally fail:

Yup, just like the 3 previous ones, the 4th mobilization completely failed.  According to a Ukrainian newspaper up to 80% of the conscripts do not want to go to fight.  I am not sure about the 80% figure, but it appears to be a huge problem which further waves of mobilizations (the 5th one has already been announce) will, of course, not solve at all.

Novorussia (finally) announces a full mobilization:

Zakharchenko has announced that Novorussia is declaring a full mobilization.  The neat thing is that this mobilization will be *voluntary* but that Zakharchenko expects 100'000 men to show up.  Here we can only "thank" the junta for its systematic terror campaign against the towns and cities of Novorussia which has acted better than any recruitment center ever could.  If the Novorussians really succeed in getting these kinds of numbers, and my guess is that they will, by next summer the junta will be in real danger of really losing all of historical Novorussia and of having Crimea linked to Russia by land.

Summary and conclusion:

Ever since the junta resumed its offensive against Novorussia the Novorussians have acted very carefully, slowly and effectively.  True, these counter-attacks were limited to tactical level engagements.  However, this is the correct response as a full scale operational level counter-offensive would be very dangerous and considering how much time the junta forces had to dig in and prepare its defensive positions, such a counter-attack would probably have been stalled, if not defeated.  Zakharchenko and his General Staff clearly have protected their most precious resource - their men - and have limited their response to relieving the pressure on Donetsky and Gorlovka.

However, I am beginning to detect the signs of a much bigger operation to come.  For example, the combats around Mariupol were also a good way of probing the junta defenses.  Combine that with the rumors that the Novorussians have one, possibly two, SU-25s (how much will they have by this summer?), that their air defenses are shooting down ballistic missiles, that the Russian Voentorg is almost an officially admitted reality, that the Novorussians will only negotiate on the basis of an existing line of contact (rather then the one agreed upon in Minsk) and you get the imagine.

Then look at the other side: the 4th mobilization failed.  The junta's "winter offensive" was a complete disaster.  The economy has tanked and not even the combined "moral" (so to speak) pressure of Soros and Levi has succeeded in getting the money to bail out the junta.  Add to this protest and even riots in junta-controlled Banderastan, the EU cracking along all its seams (SYRIZA in Greece, Podemos Spain, the Charlie Hebdo psyops in France, the Swiss Franc earthquake, the use of "quantitative easing" (i.e. the printing press) by the ECB and ask yourself what the anti-Russian camp will look like in, say, 4-6 months.

I am starting to get the feeling that the Russians (Novo and others) have decided that they will solve the "Novorussian part" of the "Ukrainian problem" this summer (the Ukrainian one will probably take many years to solve).

Can you imagine what a 100'000 strong Novorussian army armed to the teeth with the latest Russian military hardware will look like by June?  Especially from a riot-filled, economically devastated Kiev?

Am I dreaming or do you also get that feeling?

Cheers and,until tomorrow, open thread again!

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP January 27th: Zionists, Nazis and a bit of history

The Zionists:

Oh this is too good!!!  My two "favorite" Russia-hating Ueber-Zionists join forces in the New York Times to call for the salvation of the Nazi Junta in Kiev by a massive injection of capital.

Priceless.

Here is what they wrote: (full text)

Save the New Ukraine

A NEW Ukraine was born a year ago in the pro-European protests that helped to drive President Viktor F. Yanukovych from power. And today, the spirit that inspired hundreds of thousands to gather in the Maidan, Kiev’s Independence Square, is stronger than ever, even as it is under direct military assault from Russian forces supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The new Ukraine seeks to become the opposite of the old Ukraine, which was demoralized and riddled with corruption. The transformation has been a rare experiment in participatory democracy; a noble adventure of a people who have rallied to open their nation to modernity, democracy and Europe. And this is just the beginning.

This experiment is remarkable for finding expression not only in defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity from the separatists, but also in constructive work. Maidan’s supporters have moved from opposition to nation building.

Many of those in government and Parliament are volunteers who have given up well-paying jobs to serve their country. Natalie Jaresko, a former investment banker, now works for a few hundred dollars a month as the new finance minister. Volunteers are helping Ukraine’s one million internally displaced people as well as working as advisers to ministers and in local government.

The new Ukraine, however, faces a potent challenge from the old Ukraine. The old Ukraine is solidly entrenched in a state bureaucracy that has worked hand in hand with a business oligarchy. And the reformers are also up against the manifest hostility of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, who wants at all costs to destabilize Ukraine.

One drawback is that the new Ukraine is a well-kept secret, not just from the rest of the world but also from the Ukrainian public. Radical reforms have been hatched but not yet implemented.

It is instructive to compare Ukraine today with Georgia in 2004. When he became president that year, Mikheil Saakashvili immediately replaced the hated traffic police and removed the roadblocks used to extort bribes from drivers. The public recognized straight away that things had changed for the better.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has not yet found a similar demonstration project. Kiev’s police force is to be restructured, but if you need a driver’s license, you must still pay the same bribe as before.

Mr. Saakashvili was a revolutionary leader who first stamped out corruption but eventually turned it into a state monopoly. By contrast, Ukraine is a participatory democracy that does not rely on a single leader but on checks and balances. Democracies move slowly, but that may prove an advantage in the long run.

The big question is, will there be a long run? Although Russia is in a deepening financial crisis, Mr. Putin appears to have decided that he can destroy the new Ukraine before it can fully establish itself and before an economic downturn destroys his own popularity.

The Russian president is stepping up the military and financial pressure on Ukraine. Over the weekend, the city of Mariupol came under attack from forces that NATO said were backed by Russian troops, undermining the pretense that the separatists are acting on their own.

Ukraine will defend itself militarily, but it urgently needs financial assistance. The immediate need is for $15 billion. But to ensure Ukraine’s survival and encourage private investment, Western powers need to make a political commitment to provide additional sums, depending on the extent of the Russian assault and the success of Ukraine’s reforms.

The reformers, who want to avoid the leakages that were characteristic of the old Ukraine, have expressed their wish to be held accountable for all expenditures. They are passing extensive legislation but also want the International Monetary Fund to go on exercising oversight.

Unfortunately, just as democracies are slow to move, an association of democracies like the European Union is even slower. Mr. Putin is exploiting this.

It is not only the future of Ukraine that’s at stake, but that of the European Union itself. The loss of Ukraine would be an enormous blow; it would empower a Russian alternative to the European Union based on the rule of force rather than the rule of law. But if Europe delivered the financial assistance that Ukraine needs, Mr. Putin would eventually be forced to abandon his aggression. At the moment, he can argue that Russia’s economic troubles are caused by Western hostility, and the Russian public finds his argument convincing.

If, however, Europe is generous with its financial assistance, a stable and prosperous Ukraine will provide an example that makes clear that the blame for Russia’s financial troubles lies with Mr. Putin. The Russian public might then force him to emulate the new Ukraine. Europe’s reward would be a new Russia that has turned from a potent strategic threat into a potential strategic partner. Those are the stakes.
The way the NYT presents these two bloodthirsty clowns is also typical.  One, Soros, is a "philanthropist" while the other, Levi, is a "philosopher".  They might as well have presented them as modern day saints.

Clearly, the Neocons and their Zionist allies are in a full-war mode, they fear that their russophobic Nazi regime in Kiev is going to tank and they are terrified at the consequences. As they should.

The Nazis:

Well, just as predicted the Rada in Kiev has declared Russia an "aggressor state".  Now all that is needed to "prove" their point is a major false flag to show that hordes of Spetsnaz GRU throat-cutters are slaughtering babies in their cribs (Kuwait), blowing up peaceful shoppers (Markale market), committing genocide (Srebrenica), massacring villages (Racak) or using Viagra as a weapon of war (Libya).  Then Putin needs to be upgraded form "new Stalin" to "new Hitler" (or both) and, voilà, the US and NATO will have to "shoulder their historical burden" of having to defend "civilization, human right, freedom and progress" against the revanchist Russian aggressor.

I am sorry to have to say that, but I consider a large scale false flag a virtual inevitability by now.  God willing, the Junta is in too much disarray and chaos to make it happen, but I think that everybody in the Novorussian resistance needs to go to "red alert" for some crazy move by the Junta.

The belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang

Guys, I am constantly getting a flow of comments about "Jews this Jews that", "Nazis this, Nazis that", and the "killer argument" "Jews cannot be Nazis and Nazis cannot be Jews".  Guys, think again.  Look at all Zionists and Nazis have in common:

1) the belief in the existence of races/ethnicities
2) the belief in the superiority of their own race/ethnicity
3) the morbid obsession with blood and racial purity
4) a phenomenal propensity to use violence to achieve their goals
5) the belief that their opponents are not really human
6) a morbid interest for the occult (Ahnenerbe, Kabbalism)
7) a rabid hatred for Russia, Russians and Orthodoxy

Now, of course, they also happened to hate each other.  So what?  Trotskists hated Stalinists and vice versa, the SS hated the SA and vice versa and the Jesuits hated the Lutherans and vice versa.  But in each case these movement spring from the same well (Bolshevism, National-Socialism and Frankish Papism).

Zionism and Nazism are born from the same fetid womb: 19th European secular nationalism and, as Brecht so well put it: the belly is still fertile from which the foul beast sprang.  This is also the root of Ukrainian nationalism, Russian pan-Slavism, and many other ideologies.  Most of them have lost traction and have been repudiated, but in Israel Zionism is still the main official state ideology and the same is true for the part of the ex-Ukraine run by the Nazi junta in Kiev.

Now, sincere there are apparently quite a few of you who still hold on to racist/racialist ideas, I feel the need to repeat here what I wrote in my post AngloZionist: Short primer for the newcomers:

Now this might seem basic, but so many people miss it, that I will have to explicitly state it: to say that most US elites are Anglos or Jews does not mean that most Anglos or Jews are part of the US elites. That is a straw-man argument which deliberately ignores the non commutative property of my thesis to turn it into a racist statement which accuses most/all Anglos or Jews of some evil doing. So to be very clear:
When I speak of AngloZionist Empire I am referring to the predominant ideology of the 1%ers elites which for this Empire's "deep state".
By the way, there are non-Jewish Zionists (Biden, in his own words) and there are (plenty of) anti-Zionist Jews. Likewise, there are non-Anglo imperialists and there are (plenty of) anti-imperialists Anglos. To speak of "Nazi Germany" or "Soviet Russia" does in now way imply that all Germans were Nazis or all Russian s Communists. All this means it that the predominant ideology of these nations at that specific moment in time was National-Socialism and Marxism, that's all.
This is why the listing of Jews in power in Kiev because what is missing from the picture is either a list of all Jews who are not in power in Kiev or the list of all non-Jews who are in power in Kiev, or both.

Zionism is to Jews what National-Socialism is to Germans and what Communism is to Russians: a pathology triggered by a slight, but crucial, modification of these nation's "spiritual DNA".  This is like comparing healthy tissue to a malignant tumor: very similar but different enough to be fatal.

The real enemy:

The real enemy is not the Jew, the German or the Russian, of course. The real enemy are evil, satanic ideologies. As Saint Paul so eloquently put it: For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms (Eph. 6:12).  He did not say the "1%ers" of course, but if you ask me, this is close enough.


I recently got an email from a friend who asked me to stop using the word "Ukie" and I decided to follow his advice because even if some, or even most, Ukrainians nowadays might support the regime of freaks in Kiev, some, even maybe most, do not.

Yes, Soros and BHL are Jews.  Real evil, bloodthirstily and ugly buffoons whom I despise from the very bottom of my heart.  And yes, there ideology is the kind of Neocon Zionism which has become so popular in the USA and, in the past decades, in Israel (original Zionists were dramatically different, socialists, secularists and, actually, I think honest, if mistaken, idealists).  Oh, not that I believe for one second that either one of them sincerely cares about his fellow Jews or about Israel.  Not at all.  Contrary to the popular belief, one does not need to care for Israel at all to be a Zionist.  Are you shocked by that statement?  Okay, here me out.  Here is what I wrote in my "primer":
Let's take the (hyper politically correct) Wikipedia definition of what the word "Zionism" means: it is "a nationalist movement of Jews and Jewish culture that supports the creation of a Jewish homeland in the territory defined as the Land of Israel". Apparently, no link to the US, the Ukraine or Timbuktu, right? But think again. Why would Jews - whether defined as a religion or an ethnicity - need a homeland anyway? Why can't they just live wherever they are born, just like Buddhist (a religion) or the African Bushmen (ethnicity) who live in many different countries? The canonical answer is that Jews have been persecuted everywhere and that therefore they need their own homeland to serve as a safe haven in case of persecutions. Without going into the issue of why Jews were persecuted everywhere and, apparently, in all times, this rationale clearly implies if not the inevitability of more persecutions or, at the very least, a high risk thereof. Let's accept that for demonstration sake and see what this, in turn, implies. First, that implies that Jews are inherently threatened by non-Jews who are all at least potential anti-Semites. The threat is so severe that a separate Gentile-free homeland must be created as the only, best and last way to protect Jews worldwide. This, in turn, implies that the continued existence of this homeland should become an vital and irreplaceable priority of all Jews worldwide lest a persecution suddenly breaks out and they have nowhere to go. Furthermore, until all Jews finally "move up" to Israel, they better be very, very careful as all the goyim around them could literally come down with a sudden case of genocidal anti-Semitism at any moment. Hence all the anti-anti-Semitic organizations a la ADL or UEJF, the Betar clubs, the network of sayanim, etc. In other words, far from being a local "dealing with Israel only" phenomenon, Zionism is a worldwide movement whose aim is to protect Jews from the apparently incurable anti-Semitism of the rest of the planet. As Israel Shahak correctly identified it, Zionism postulates that Jews should "think locally and act globally" and when given a choice of policies always ask THE crucial question: "But is it good for Jews?". So far from being only focused on Israel, Zionism is really a global, planetary, ideology which unequivocally split up all of mankind into two groups (Jews and Gentiles), which assumes that the latter are all potential genocidal maniacs (which is racist) and believes that saving Jewish lives is qualitatively different and more important than saving Gentile lives (which is racist again). Anyone doubting the ferocity of this determination should either ask a Palestinian or study the holiday of Purim, or both. Even better, read Gilad Atzmon and look up his definition of what is brilliantly called "pre-traumatic stress disorder".
So  we need to be very careful here.  First, we cannot fight an Empire whose nature and essence we do not understand.  Second, we cannot fight an enemy whom we cannot even name.  I therefore submit that speaking of the AngloZionist Empire is not only correct, but even crucial: "Anglo" refers to historical roots and geopolitical reality, "Zionist" refers to its ideological world view.  HOWEVER, as soon as we start "counting Jews" or saying that Nazis and Jews cannot be in the same junta, we are immediately falling back into a completely discredited 19th century West European ideology which has triggered many millions of deaths in all the major wars of the past couple of centuries.

This is bull.  Acting like a bull.  In a corrida.

Personally, I don't even believe that the word "race".  Here again, I will quote my "primer"
First, I don't believe that Jews are a race or an ethnicity. I always doubted that, but reading Shlomo Sand really convinced me. Jews are not defined by religion either (most/many are secular). Truly, Jews are a tribe. A group one can chose to join (Elizabeth Taylor) or leave (Gilad Atzmon). In other words, I see "Jewishness" as a culture, or ideology, or education or any other number of things, but not something rooted in biology. I fully agree with Atzmon when he says that Jews are racist, but not a race. Second, I don't even believe that the concept of "race" has been properly defined and, hence, that it has any objective meaning. I therefore don't differentiate between human beings on the basis of an undefined criterion.
But I am aware that there are people out there who consider themselves as Jews or Jewish (never understood the difference between these two terms, but nevermind).  I say - let them.  But let's not paint them as the enemy when the enemy is a tribal ideology which is shared by millions of people who do not consider themselves as Jews (US Evangelicals, for starters, millions of them). 

If we miss the real target and get distracted by the fake one put in front of us by the real enemy, we will act just like a bull in a Spanish corrida: we will always miss the real enemy who will exhaust us and then kill us.

Let's us please be smarter and stop constantly chasing the wrong enemy.  Let's hit the real enemy there where he really is, there where he hides, there were it will really hurt him.  Let's accurately name him.  His name is "Legion" because he has many ideologies and manifestations and he shows up in any and all human groups.

One last thing: I am truly sick and tired of moderating comments about "Jew this, Jews that" or "Nazis this, Nazis that".  So, exceptionally, I will not allow any comments on this post at all.  And if some smart ass will post a comment about that elsewhere, I will delete it.  I want the level of conversation of this blog to go up, not down, and if that means shutting up the Jew-centric trolling then I will.  My apologies to everybody else, but the last thing I want here is 700 comments rehashing all the common racist/racialist inanities which were in fashion in the 20th century.

Please read the above post carefully, please re-read my "AngloZionists: a short primer" for a fuller discussion and, whether you agree with my arguments or not, please forgive me for exceptionally not opening this one post to comments.

Kind regards to all, cheers,

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP 26th January

I have been trying to wait as long as possible to get some facts confirmed, but at this point in time I am confident enough to say that there are numerous and convergent signs that things are going extremely badly for the Kiev junta. Just look at the following recent headlines:
Clearly, things are not going well *at all* for the Junta.

Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature.  However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic.  However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them.  By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.

Here are two SITREPS translated by the great Kazzura which I find interesting:

Prime Minister Zakharchenko



Corps commander Eduard Basurin


I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy.  Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.

Option one: false flag

The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag.  Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal.  And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty".  We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.

Option two: declare with with Russia

Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor.  But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state".  And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in.  Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact.  There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters.  In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".

Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.

This one is far from over

I therefore caution everybody against any premature triumphalism.  It ain't over and it won't be over anytime soon.  Even if the Novorussians comprehensively defeat the Junta forces (again!), this will not push their attack very far beyond the current frontlines (they just don't have the manpower for that).  So don't expect the Novorussians to free Kiev and overthrown the Junta.  That is something only the Ukrainian people themselves can do, and right now they are nowhere near that kind of outcome.

Things to look very, very bad for Kiev and the current tactical difficulties faced by the Junta might well result in an operational level collapse.  At which point we can expect all sides except the Novorussians to try to revive some kind of stale and futile "peace process" which the Novorussians will have to accept, except that this time around Russia will probably make more demands then the first time around.  Now that Putin has declared that the Junta's army what just "NATO's legion" the mood in Moscow is rather dark and the disgust with Poroshenko and all his lies very wide-spread.  So even if Russia accepts another cease-fire, the Junta will have to pay a price for its failed assault.  I think that the loss of Mariupol might be one of the conditions demanded by Russia (at least I hope so).

What about the imperial "Axis of Kindness"?

The Empire is in full combat mode.  After George Soros, the US Commander of NATO ground forces has visited Kiev and the western credit rating agencies have further downgraded Russia even though every single objective economic indicator says otherwise.  Things are a tad more complicated in Europe were the victory of Syriza in Greece will create a major risk for the future of the EU.  Sure, Merkel is more then willing to do the USA's bidding, but her popularity suffers from it and tensions between the EU plutocrats and the European people are only on the rise.  In France the entire Charlie Hebdo psyop has resulted in a chaotic and most volatile situation, the Polish nonsense about Auschwitz being liberated by Ukrainians has damaged the credibility of the russophobic camp and the awareness that the Kiev Junta and its supporters are bona fide Nazis is slowly but inexorably growing everywhere.

As Lincoln is supposed to have said "you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time".  Time is running out for the Nazi freaks in Kiev.

The Saker