Coronavirus early impact on the global economy is quite evident now through the BRIC economies PMIs that cover the first two months of the pandemic:
One country breaking the ranks so far on this is India, where the pandemic was registered only in mid-March, resulting in 'distancing' restrictions being imposed only in the second half of the last month of the 1Q.
Even accounting for India's relatively lagged impact of the COVID19, BRIC quarterly PMIs (note: I use simple average for each country monthly PMIs and weigh these by each BRIC economy's respective share of the Global GDP, adjusted for differences in prices and exchange rates):
- BRIC Composite Manufacturing PMI for 1Q 2020 came in at 49.1 - statistically significantly below 50.0, indicating a recession, and marking the weakest reading since 1Q 2009. Nonetheless, BRIC Manufacturing PMI was above the Global Manufacturing PMI of 48.4.
- BRIC Composite Services PMI for 1Q 2020 was at 44.9, weakest on record, and below Global Services PMI of 45.6. BRIC reading for 1Q 2020 was consistent with a recession.
- Global Composite PMI at 45.9 was the weakest on record and basically in-line with the BRIC's average of Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Brazil Composite PMI at 46.9 and Russia Composite PMI at 47.7 were recessionary, but better performing that the Global Composite PMI, while India's Composite PMI of 54.8 was completely out of alignment with the Global economy and the rest of the BRICs. China Composite PMI of 42.0 was weaker than the Global Composite PMI owing to the earlier start of the pandemic in China.