Category Archives: coronavirus

China’s "Record Coal Spree" Spurs Faster Pace of CO2 Buildup in Earth’s Air

China's fossil fuel shortage has fully reversed. Thanks largely to what is now being described in the media as a "record coal spree", the country is described as now having adequate supplies to get through the winter.

The Chinese government's "coal spree" has produced some stunning numbers for coal imports and domestic production. China's imports of coal sharply increased in 2021, as its imports dipped in December 2021 after peaking in November 2021 as China's domestic coal production soared.

China's fossil fuel shortage prompted officials to crank up domestic coal mining, resulting in record output from coal mines in both December 2021 and for the entire calendar year.

China’s coal output hit record highs in December and in the full year of 2021, as the government continued to encourage miners to ramp up production to ensure sufficient energy supplies in the winter heating season.

China, the world’s biggest coal miner and consumer, produced 384.67 million tonnes of the fossil fuel last month, up 7.2% year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. This compared with a previous record of 370.84 million tonnes set in November.

For the full year of 2021, output touched a record 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7% on the previous year.

Since October, authorities have ordered coal miners to run at maximum capacity to tame red-hot coal prices and prevent a recurrence of September’s nationwide power crunch that disrupted industrial operations and added to factory gate inflation.

China hasn't let the additional coal it has bought and mined in panic sit around. Chinese power plants have been burning it in great quantities, which has resulted in a very noticable increase in the rate at which carbon dioxide is accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere.

Trailing Twelve Month Average of Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - January 2022

Given its coincidental timing with the waning of the global coronavirus pandemic, the environmental impact of China burning the coal it acquired through it's coal spree may also finally mark the bottom of the coronavirus pandemic itself.

Since we happen to be at an anniversary date for the data, we'll close by presented an updated version of this chart, which spans back to January 1960 to provide additional historic context.

Trailing Twelve Month Average of Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 1960 - January 2022

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 8 February 2022. Accessed 8 February 2022.

Omicron Arrives in Arizona

When we last reviewed Arizona's coronavirus pandemic experience in mid-December 2021, we reported the Delta-variant wave looked to be peaking. In fact, we followed up with an update to that article on 21 December 2021 to confirm it.

Since we reported that data, the Omicron-variant of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus arrived, with a rate of spread that exceeds each of the previous waves Arizona has experienced. At least, that's what immediately leaps out in the newest update to our chart tracking Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience, so let's go straight to it.

Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience, 15 March 2020 - 17 January 2022

The data for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths presented in this chart has been aligned with respect to the approximate date for when those who tested positive, were admitted to hospital, or died would have first been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus variants. Presenting the data this way makes it possible to visually identify when the incidence of infection changes. Having that information often makes it possible to identify significant events that affected the trends for COVID infections.

Based on Arizona's data for cases and for new hospital admissions, the Omicron variant of the coronavirus began noticeably spreading approximately on or around 19 December 2021. That's the weekend before the Christmas holiday, which points to public events like shopping, Phoenix' Fiesta Bowl Parade, and pre-holiday social events as the likely venues in which infections of the Omicron coronavirus variant took hold in the state. Unlike the most recent uptrend, few high-attendance sporting events took place Arizona during that period. We likewise expect to see similar liftoff in the data for COVID deaths as that much longer lagging data becomes available.

Behind the scenes, we've looked at new hospital admission data that has not yet been added to this chart because it is less than 95% of the value where it will stabilize for the indicated dates. Based on that partially complete information, we anticipate the data for COVID hospitalizations will parallel the rapid increase already evident for cases confirmed by testing.

Meanwhile, the data for COVID deaths in Arizona during this period is far too incomplete as yet to add an additional confirmation of the 19 December 2021 date marking the arrival of widespread Omicron-variant coronavirus infection in Arizona. The state's data for ICU admissions however points to 19 December 2021 as the kickoff date for the spread of Omicron-variant COVID cases, assuming a 13-day lag from initial exposure, which we see with COVID-infected ICU patients beginning to increase after 1 January 2022. That change in trend may be seen in Arizona's ICU bed usage chart.

Arizona COVID-19 ICU Bed Usage, 15 March 2020 - 15 January 2022

While rising in response to Omicron-variant cases, ICU bed usage data points to a lower growth rate for serious cases requiring ICU facilities at this time.

Arizona's ICU COVID-19 bed usage chart also points to an unusual development, in which the number of Arizona's intensive care units was arbitrarily reduced by about 90 units on 18 December 2021, with the impact concentrated in beds being used by non-COVID ICU patients. We have found no contemporary reporting to explain why that happened. Since we previously reported Arizona's available supply of ICU beds was becoming pinched in early December 2021, we believe that decision should be called into question given the developing situation with the Omicron variant in the state.

We'll close with some better news. Going back to the first chart, we see the rate at which new COVID cases are occurring in Arizona has begun to slow in the period since 1 January 2022. Though it is still rising, which we anticipate will continue for several weeks, each previous wave of COVID infections in Arizona was preceded by a similar deceleration before peaking.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic, presented in reverse chronological order.

References

Political Calculations has been following Arizona's experience with the coronavirus experience from almost the beginning, because the state makes its high quality data publicly available. Specifically, the state's Departent of Health Services reports the number of cases by date of test sample collection, the number of hospitalizations by date of hospital admission, and the number of deaths by date recorded on death certificates.

This data, combined with what we know of the typical time it takes to progress to each of these milestones, makes it possible to track the state's daily rate of incidence of initial exposure to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus using back calculation methods. Links to that data and information about how the back calculation method works are presented below:

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration. [Online Database]. Accessed 17 January 2022.

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. 10 September 2020.

More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.

Upswing in Arizona COVID Cases Shows Signs of Peaking, Crowded ICUs

When we last checked up on Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic a month ago, we confirmed a new uptrend in cases had begun. We had tracked the timing of the origins of that new upswing to the weekend of 8 October through 11 October 2021, coinciding with multiple high attendance sporting events in the state.

A month later, that upswing is showing signs of peaking. The following chart shows the latest trends for the number of COVID cases, hospital admissions, and deaths indexed to the approximate date of when those infected were initially exposed to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus being transmitted within the state.

Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience, 15 March 2020 - 15 December 2021

The state's detailed data for both hospital admissions and deaths has followed the pattern for the uptrend in cases. However, with compared with the pre-COVID vaccine era for the pandemic, we confirm lower rates of new hospital admissions and deaths with respect to the number of recorded cases in the period with the vaccines widely available and improved treatments.

Arizona however is facing a new challenge: a dwindling supply of Intensive Care Unit beds. The next chart shows the situation that has developed over the past month:

Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience, 10 April 2020 - 11 December 2021

Unlike in 2020, Arizona's hospitals have sought to avoid clearing their ICU units to dedicate space exclusively for COVID patients in 2021. However, the rising number of cases in the latest upswing has led to several ICUs in the state nearing their capacities.

For the first time this entire pandemic, Arizona hospitals have less than 80 total ICU beds available. At Valleywise Health, a spokesperson confirmed there are currently three available. But some medical professionals are worried that things will only get worse the deeper we head into winter. "If we can feel the heat already, then we're already at a level where people should be mindful and doing what they can," Valleywise district medical group vice-chair of surgery Dr. Ross Goldberg said.

With only three ICU beds available, Goldberg and the rest of his staff are preparing for a scenario where that number gets even lower. But he's holding out hope that never happens. "We are constantly watching our situation," Goldberg said. "We are allocating resources as needed to make sure we're getting people taken care of. But again, we don't want to find what those breaking points are. We don't really want to stress the system to that level."

Across Arizona hospitals, ICU bed availability is either at zero or approaching that number. At Flagstaff Medical Center, the only Level I trauma center north of Maricopa County, they are currently at ICU capacity with a waiting list. But if someone shows up needing an ICU bed, a hospital spokesperson confirmed to Arizona's Family that they will be provided with one.

In December 2020, media reports that Arizona's hospital ICU capacity was becoming scarce helped contribute to a positive development in the state's COVID trends. With signs the latest uptrend in cases is already peaking, we may see a similar development in the weeks ahead.

Update 21 December 2021: Data tracking from Johns Hopkins confirms Arizona's new cases have peaked. Here's their chart showing state-by-state trends as of 19 December 2021, where Arizona's new case count has dropped by almost 10% during the previous seven days:

John's Hopkins daily new cases per 100k people, data shown from 1/22/20 to 12/19/21, trends over last seven days, snapshot on 19 December 2021

On the plus side, major sport leagues in the U.S. are now postponing games in the recognition their large attendance events are contributing to adverse trends for COVID, as our analysis indicates they did starting from early-October 2021 to cause Arizona's most recent upswing in cases. We may also have been the first analysts to directly make that connection in the new wave of cases in the U.S.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic, presented in reverse chronological order.

References

Political Calculations has been following Arizona's experience with the coronavirus experience from almost the beginning, because the state makes its high quality data publicly available. Specifically, the state's Departent of Health Services reports the number of cases by date of test sample collection, the number of hospitalizations by date of hospital admission, and the number of deaths by date recorded on death certificates.

This data, combined with what we know of the typical time it takes to progress to each of these milestones, makes it possible to track the state's daily rate of incidence of initial exposure to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus using back calculation methods. Links to that data and information about how the back calculation method works are presented below:

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration. [Online Database]. Accessed 12 December 2021.

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. 10 September 2020.

More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.

COVID-19 Cases on Upswing in Arizona

Arizona is seeing an upswing in the number of COVID cases in the state. As best as we can tell using the back calculation method, the new uptrend for cases began with a change in the rate of incidence of exposure to the viral infection approximately between 8 October and 11 October 2021. The following chart shows the latest trends for the number of COVID cases, hospital admissions, and deaths indexed to the approximate date of when those infected were initially exposed to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus being transmitted within the state.

Arizona's Coronavirus Pandemic Experience, 15 March 2021 - 15 November 2021

The state's detailed data for hospital admissions and deaths is still as yet too incomplete to tell if they will follow the pattern for the uptrend in cases. The impact of the COVID vaccines combined with improved treatments however has clearly made COVID less serious than it was during 2020.

The period of 8 October through 11 October 2021 was characterized by what might be considered several mass exposure events within the state. Here's a sampling of sporting events that drew thousands in attendance to each:

That's just the sporting events in the state during that period, without including things like tailgate parties or other social gatherings that could constitute significant exposure events.

We were curious to see if Arizona's COVID data could provide more insight into where cases are now arising in the state. The following image is a snapshot of COVID cases by ZIP code in the state, where the darker red the color, the greater the number of cases in the last month.

Arizona Recent COVID-19 Cases by Zip Code (15 October 2021 - 15 November 2021)

The map is fascinating because with a few exceptions it shows the higher levels of new COVID cases in ZIP codes are taking place in regions that might be considered to be the suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Here's the short list of the ZIP codes that became the darkest red during the past month:

  • 85706: 793 cases
  • 85142: 792 cases
  • 85338: 792 cases
  • 85345: 771 cases
  • 85326: 763 cases
  • 85122: 717 cases
  • 85009: 713 cases

It would be interesting to see if those testing positive for COVID-19 infections in these ZIP codes share any common characteristics. Arizona's public data for infections at this level however doesn't provide enough detail to tell.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic, presented in reverse chronological order.

References

Political Calculations has been following Arizona's experience with the coronavirus experience from almost the beginning, because the state makes its high quality data publicly available. Specifically, the state's Departent of Health Services reports the number of cases by date of test sample collection, the number of hospitalizations by date of hospital admission, and the number of deaths by date recorded on death certificates.

This data, combined with what we know of the typical time it takes to progress to each of these milestones, makes it possible to track the state's daily rate of incidence of initial exposure to the variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus using back calculation methods. Links to that data and information about how the back calculation method works are presented below:

Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration. [Online Database]. Accessed 15 November 2021.

Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. 10 September 2020.

More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.

World GDP Shrinks at Slower Rate in October 2021

October 2021 saw a deceleration in the rate at which carbon dioxide is being added to the Earth's atmosphere has been falling in recent months. Much of that decline can be attributed to disruptions in production related to measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 in Asian nations followed by a fossil fuel shortage in China.

That change indicates both that many of the nations in southeast Asia are seeing falling rates of infections, allowing their various lockdown restrictions limiting their economic output to be lifted. It also indicates China is having some success in overcoming its fossil fuel shortages.

The following chart shows how that deceleration fits into the overall pattern since the coronavirus pandemic first became widely apparent in December 2019.

Trailing Twelve Month Average of Year-Over-Year Change in Parts per Million of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, January 2000 - October 2021

Since December 2019, a net reduction of 0.68 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide has been recorded in the trailing twelve month average of the year over year rate of change in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory. We estimate this change represents a net loss of $22.6 trillion to the world economy since December 2019.

Looking forward, China is seeing a new surge in SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections, which is already prompting new restrictive lockdowns in the northern region of the country, which has spread to at least 31 provinces. China's government is signaling it expects a "complicated and severe situation" for cases in the months ahead. Disruptions to economic production in China are expected from the lockdowns.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Text File]. Updated 5 November 2021. Accessed 5 November 2021.

Previously on Political Calculations

Here is our series quantifying the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Earth's economy, presented in reverse chronological order.