Category Archives: #COVIDRussia

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is accelerating world-wide and the death toll is now rising at an alarming rate:



The chart above is the most alarming one: rates of growth in new cases and in daily deaths counts (the second derivative) are well-above their past months' averages. Death toll is rising by a third, daily, on average since the start of November. Covid-denialists have persistently argued that despite increases in the numbers of new cases, deaths were falling (they were not: August was the only month of negative growth in daily deaths). In fact, starting with September, daily deaths, on average, grew by double-digits percentage points, and the rate of growth accelerated in October by 80 percent compared to September. 

Global second wave of the pandemic is substantially more deadly (in absolute numbers) than the prior wave. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia is experiencing a second wave of the pandemic that started around September 10-12 is still gaining speed in terms of new cases and deaths counts:


This wave is both deadlier and more severe in terms of new cases than the previous one, although there appears to be less pressure on the public health system so far. Nonetheless, November data to-date shows much higher daily average new infections (subject, partially, to higher rates of testing), and higher daily deaths counts (clearly not accounted for by higher testing):



Comparatively, Russia is performing relatively ok, when set against other BRIICS and the U.S. and the EU27 experiences: 



3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:




Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:

  • The EU27 would have ranked 17th worst case in the total group of 51 countries + EU27; the U.S. ranks 8th worst.
  • The UK ranks 7th worst.
  • Sweden, the 'herd immunity' darling ranks 15th worst across the board, 7th worst in deaths per 1,000 cases, and 16th worst in deaths per 1 million of population. For comparison, the Netherlands ranks 20th worst - the only other Nordic country to make it into the table of countries with > 100,000 cases. 
  • Peru, followed by Belgium and Spain are the worst three countries across all metrics (combined).

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide: 



Increasing death counts above the relatively stable trend/average of the prior three months is worrying. Growth rates in new infections and new deaths in October and in the first three days of November are also out of line with past months' experience:


Summary tables:



Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.