Category Archives: #COVIDBrazil

7/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is accelerating world-wide and the death toll is now rising at an alarming rate:

The chart above is the most alarming one: rates of growth in new cases and in daily deaths counts (the second derivative) are well-above their past months' averages. Death toll is rising by a third, daily, on average since the start of November. Covid-denialists have persistently argued that despite increases in the numbers of new cases, deaths were falling (they were not: August was the only month of negative growth in daily deaths). In fact, starting with September, daily deaths, on average, grew by double-digits percentage points, and the rate of growth accelerated in October by 80 percent compared to September. 

Global second wave of the pandemic is substantially more deadly (in absolute numbers) than the prior wave. 

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating tables for countries with > 100,000 cases, data through November 3 ECDC reporting:

Both, the U.S. and the EU27 are currently in the new wave of the pandemic (more on this later). That said, across three key metrics: new cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case:

  • The EU27 would have ranked 17th worst case in the total group of 51 countries + EU27; the U.S. ranks 8th worst.
  • The UK ranks 7th worst.
  • Sweden, the 'herd immunity' darling ranks 15th worst across the board, 7th worst in deaths per 1,000 cases, and 16th worst in deaths per 1 million of population. For comparison, the Netherlands ranks 20th worst - the only other Nordic country to make it into the table of countries with > 100,000 cases. 
  • Peru, followed by Belgium and Spain are the worst three countries across all metrics (combined).

3/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 The pandemic is once again re-accelerating worldwide: 

Increasing death counts above the relatively stable trend/average of the prior three months is worrying. Growth rates in new infections and new deaths in October and in the first three days of November are also out of line with past months' experience:

Summary tables:

Despite relative easing of public anxiety over the public health risks, COVID19 pandemic remains on a full-blown expansionary path and the recent dramatic - exponential - rise in new cases, whilst in part driven by improved testing, is now showing signs of lifting up daily deaths counts, with new deaths coming in at above March-September averages in October and in the first days of November.

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

Some interesting updates to the league tables for countries with > 100,000. Since the last update, five more countries joined the rather sad club, including Sweden (more on this later), and there are now 47 countries around the world with more than 100,000 cases of the disease recorded. 

The tables below are organized as a heat map, with green cells reporting statistics that put a country in the 'better than average' category, while orange cells marking countries statistically worse than average:

  • The EU27 - ranked relative to the countries, though excluded from the national level statistics inputs - is ranked 17th worst in the table.
  • The U.S. is now jointly ranked 7th worst with the UK - a one point deterioration in performance for thee U.S. since the earlier update.
  • Sweden ranks 15th worst - poorer performance than the EU27, but not by much.
  • Globally, the worst impacted country is Peru, followed by Belgium and Bolivia (tied for the 2nd rank), Brazil (4th) and Chile (5th).
  • The U.S. accounts for 4.34% of the world population, but holds a steady 20% share of global cases and deaths.
  • The EU27 accounts for 5.92% of the world population, and holds 11% of world's cases and 14% of world's deaths.
  • BRIICS+ Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 39% of world's cases and 30% of world's deaths.
A note regarding Sweden: it is fashionable these days to advance an argument that Sweden has attained the imaginary 'herd immunity' and has avoided shutdown of the economy while successfully crushing the pandemic. The arguments are absolute dross (more on this in a separate post). Sweden ranks poorly when it comes to absolute numbers and it ranks poorer than the EU27 (even with Sweden included in the EU numbers). 
  • Sweden's infection rate is 25th highest in the world, which is basically identical to the EU's ranks of 26th. In actual numbers, Sweden's rate is only 1.68% higher than that of the EU27.
  • However, Sweden ranks 15th in the mortality rate per capita of population (575.95 per 1 million of population), where as thee EU27 ranks 19th (361.33 per 1 million of population). Actual rate in Sweden is 59.4% higher than in the EU27.
  • Sweden also ranks much worse than the EU27 in the COVID19 deaths per infection rate: Sweden is ranked 8th worst in the world, against the EU27 rank of 12th worst. Sweden has COVID19 mortality rate of 54.5 per 1,000 cases, the EU27 rate is 34.7. 
  • Sweden did not shut down its economy. But it is not doing better than all other economies that did. There are a total of 39 advanced economies in the world, including Sweden. In 2020-2021 growth outlook (cumulated forecast over 2 years), Sweden ranks 16th highest growth. Not exactly terribly, but not great either. 
  • In 2020-2021, based on IMF's October 2020 forecasts, Sweden's real GDP is expected to end 2021 at 98.59, relative to 100 for the end of 2019. Worse than Norway at 100.62, and Finland at 99.45 and Estonia at 99.07 and Denmark at 98.84, but better than the Netherlands at 98.43.
  • Hardly an impressive performance for a 'herd immunity' country that is in more recent weeks enjoying post-peak troughs.
More on Sweden vs Nordics in a separate post to come.

23/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths


The global pandemic is accelerating, not abating:

New cases numbers have set all-time records in the last two days, and daily counts ranked in top 10 in the last 10 days on eight occasions, with the balance two occasions coming in ranked 13th and 15th, respectively. Despite the rising public complacency and fatigue to the pandemic numbers, globally, we are yet to attain the first peak of the pandemic, suggesting that when this does happen, we are likely to be set for an even worse second wave of infections.

Overall, 7-days average for new infections is at a jaw-dropping 390,097, more than 3 times the historical median and up on the 30-days average of 333,024 cases per day. 

In deaths counts, things are not looking great either.

Globally, new daily deaths counts peaked back in April 2020. This peak was generated by severe lags in reporting past deaths and changes in methodologies for reporting deaths, primarily in Europe, as the world developed statistical tools for tracking deaths and accounting for them. Since then, the more accurate peak took place around the first half of August.

In the months since August local peak, we have seen virtually no meaningful moderation in deaths counts. Current 7 days average of new daily deaths is 5,616 per day, slightly up on the 30 days average of 5,573 - a rather discouraging sign, given rapid improvements in treatments availability and a marked shift of the infections toward younger cohorts of population. Mortality rates per confirmed case are more subdued today, of course, but this is hardly a reflection on any changes in the underlying severity of the diseases, and more likely reflects improved and earlier detections and improved quality of interventions. Interestingly, the new evidence from the second wave sweeping across Europe suggests longer lags between new cases detections and increase in hospitalisations. Despite this lag, however, it now appears that hospitalisations are once again on a rise in the EU27.

Growth rates in new cases and deaths are alarming:

Both, growth rates in new cases and in daily reported deaths are now significantly in excess of anything observed since the flattening out of the growth curve starting with mid-May. October rates of deaths and cases are substantially ahead of September rates, indicating that the pandemic is accelerating, not abating.