I have been running EU vs U.S. comparatives for COVID19 pandemic dynamics for some time now, and as those reading this blog would know,  some months ago I added an estimate - based on mortality figures - of the excess U.S. deaths compared to the EU27. These currently - by my estimate - stand at 114,621 (see latest estimate here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/231020-covid19-update-us-vs-eu27.html). 

My estimate is crude. It is based on timings, population size and mortality rate adjustments. 

A more accurate recent estimate has been provided by the Columbia University study (https://resiliencesystem.org/columbia-university-says-trump-could-have-avoided-over-130000-covid-19-deaths-more-robust-pandemic) that puts the number at 130,000-210,000 'avoidable deaths'.  That is some range, of course. Per study: "If "the U.S. had followed Canadian policies and protocols, there might have only been 85,192 U.S. deaths – making more than 132,500 American deaths 'avoidable,'" the authors wrote. "If the U.S. response had mirrored that of Germany, the U.S. may have only had 38,457 deaths – leaving 179,260 avoidable deaths."

One way or the other, there are at least 100,000+ Americans dead because of the completely shambolic public health system and policy responses by the current Federal and State leaderships in the U.S. 

Columbia study seems to nail some of these factors: "The country's disproportionate death toll stems from delayed federal action, an insufficient testing regimen, a lack of consistent mask-wearing guidance, and the failure of top officials, notably Trump, to model best practices". Alas, predictably (mythology of the American culture), it misses the elephant in the room: the U.S. healthcare system itself. American approach to distributing access to healthcare based on private insurance (plus Medicare and Medicaid) is leaving tens of millions of Americans outside the basic safety net. Those without insurance as well as countless more with the atrociously large deductibles and co-pays are too afraid to present themselves to the hospitals designed to bankrupt people of modest means to seek early support and help. It matters little how much the U.S. authorities test the public (and, yes, tests are highly rationed, still, despite all the bluster from the White House), if people do not seek help in fear of being destroyed financially. 

In 2020, the average annual deductible for single, individual coverage is $4,364 and $8,439 for family coverage. Co-pay normally ranges 10-40% of the bill, though it is more complicated, since there are various caps and step-downs in co-payments. (https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/individual-and-family/how-much-does-individual-health-insurance-cost#:~:text=Deductibles%20and%20cost%2Dsharing%20expenses,and%20%248%2C439%20for%20family%20coverage.)

The typical American household has an average of $8,863 in  a bank or credit union account. There are serious variations by age and type of household, with couples 34 and younger, couples without children have an average of $4,727 in savings, while single people without children have an average of $2,729 in savings. Couples with children between the age of 35 and 44 have an average of $10,399, couples aged 45-54 with children average $15,589. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/how-much-money-americans-have-in-their-savings-accounts-at-every-age.html)

Meanwhile, the median charge for COVID-19 inpatient care was $45,683 for people aged 51 to 60 and $34,662 for those in the 23 to 30 age bracket, according to a recent study. This was the median billed to people without insurance or those who were forced to be treated out of network. The highest average allowed amount paid to the provider under an insurance plan was $24,012 for people aged 51 to 60 and, at its lowest, $17,094 for people above age 70. (https://www.thehealthcareloop.com/hospitalized-care-for-covid-19-averages-34662-to-45683-varying-by-age/) 

So a person visit for COVID19 treatment, counting lost wages, would wipe out between 1/2 and all of the savings held by average household. Contagion within the family would be a near insolvency event.

Anyone surprised American system is killing the U.S. citizens and residents?

 Things are running out of control in the EU27 and remain out of control in the U.S. of A. Here are the latest daily numbers:

Overall:

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: 
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 681.7
• Current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 361
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 89 percent above that for the EU27, although this gap is now slowly closing, down from 91% in the prior update
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. are now above the EU27, since July 12
• Current excess gap is at +67,397. Adjusted for population and pandemic timing differences, the gap is 114,621
• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections. As the result, over October to-date, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. in all but 2 days and deaths on 7 occasions

• In the U.S. pandemic continues to rage and re-accelerating from August-September slowdown. Deaths are lagging, but still running at elevated levels and are more recently rising once again.
• In the EU27, the pandemic is back with more than a vengeance: daily new cases counts are vastly above anything we have seen in the first wave. Death counts are lagging behind the prior peak, but a re massively above June-September numbers and climbing up.

Shorter-term averages confirm the above analysis:

These dire numbers come on top of already substantial levels of past infections, especially in the U.S., with improved testing and tracing, with improved treatments of cases, with better surveillance and controls in the places of higher concentration of more vulnerable population groups and with all the lessons allegedly learned from the first wave of the pandemic. The fact that we are seeing the massive second wave emerging in Europe and re-acceleration of the trend in the U.S. clearly shows that we have no control over the pandemic.

In two previous posts, I have updated data for COVID19 pandemic through October 16 for:

• Global cases and deaths: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-worldwide-cases.html
• Countries with > 100,000 cases: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/161020-covid19-update-countries-with.html

• The EU27 are now experiencing a full-blown second wave of infections. As the result, over October 1-16, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 14 occasions and deaths on 3 occasions.
• The above development is extremely alarming. As the first chart shows, EU27 is setting new records in total numbers of daily cases, records that are running at a rate of 3 times higher daily new cases counts that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. This will, inevitably, translate into higher levels of deaths in weeks to come. More ominously, current rates of new cases arrivals in the EU27 are bound to overwhelm the healthcare systems of the member states.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is also seeing increases in new cases, having enjoyed a temporary and short relief from the peak of the second wave around the end of the second week in September. Since then, the U.S. new cases are running at accelerating rates once again.
• In other words, it is time to call the third wave of the pandemic in the U.S.
• Deaths are also on a rising trend, in Europe, while lagging new cases explosion in the U.S.

 Updating data on pandemic development through 07/10/2020 for the U.S. and EU27:

• The EU27 are now experiencing a second wave of infections, while the U.S. new infections rate has moderated off the prior peaks, although moderation is relatively weak and daily cases are highly volatile.
• As the result, in the last 10 days, EU27 new case numbers have surpassed the U.S. on 4 occasions and deaths on 2 occasions. Over the last 30 days, numbers of new cases in the EU27 exceeded those in the U.S. over 9 days, while numbers of daily deaths were higher in the EU27 on four occasions.

• The U.S. has a vastly higher death rate per 1 million population than the EU27 rate: current death rate per 1 million of population in the U.S. is 642.5; and current death rate per 1 million of population in the EU27 is 335.2
• Put differently, current U.S. death rate per capita is 92 percent above that for the EU27.
• Overall counts of deaths in the U.S. remain above the EU27, since July 12. Current excess gap is at +62,928.
• Adjusted for population differences, the U.S. has 100,517 more deaths than the EU27. Adjusted for later onset of the pandemic in the U.S., America's death toll from COVID19 to-date is 114,621 higher than that of the EU27.
• The 7-day moving averages of new cases in the EU27 and the U.S. are now almost identical. The EU27 is already in the second wave of the pandemic, but the U.S. is showing signs of the second wave starting, with a significant uptick in the 7-days average since September 12 lows.
• Both, the EU27 and the U.S. deaths counts are now running above the levels at which Winter 2020 lockdowns were imposed.

Meanwhile, American leadership is switching to a new strategy in addressing COVID19, called 'Don't Panic: Get Yerself Covided! Suckers!' https://twitter.com/i/status/1313267615083761665. Which totally makes sense for more than 70 million Americans who cannot afford COVID19 treatment without filing for bankruptcy, and another 30-40 million Americans who cannot medically handle COVID19 because of existing conditions.