Category Archives: Baltic Dry Index

30/12/15: Baltic Dry Index: Brick in Search of a Lake’s Bottom

While IMF (belatedly) is warning about the risks of slower global growth, the Baltic Dry Index - a strong instrumental variable for global trade flows - has been sinking and sinking, like a brick searching for the bottom.

Yes, IMF did project back in October WEO that global growth will reach 3.56% in 2016, up on 3.123% in 2015. And that the growth in volume of trade flows will rise form just under 3% to 4.3%, with much of this growth accounted for by increased rate of growth in trade in goods (from 2.9% in 2015 to 4.13% in 2016). But, hey... one day someone will be booking real stuff on foot of IMF forecasts. Until then, good news-bad news from Washington forecasters mean zilch for the Baltic Dry.

22/12/15: Baltic Dry Index: not much of a post-Fed bounce

With the optimism of Christmas week forecast (traditionally keen on stressing the upside to the global economic conditions), let's not forget the Baltic Dry Index:

As the chart above shows, global trade ain't doing too well in this *finally repaired* and *full employment-bound* world economy. In fact, the index has been ploughing the depths that put to shame even the abysmal December 2008 crisis lows. Not surprisingly, the post-Fed bounce was pretty much a fizzle...


5/3/15: Baltic Dry Index: Slight Gain, Still in Pain

With all the 'feel good' PMI readings of late, Baltic Dry Index has improved slightly (index gained 1.08% yesterday) from the historical lows of 509.00 on February 18 to 559.00 close yesterday.

Still, year on year, the index is down from 1391.00 to 559.00

In rather miserable 2013 on this date, BDI was at 806.00 and on the same day in 2012 it was at 782.00, in 2011 around 1382.00 and so on.

It will take a hell of a lot more 'improvement' to get us back to even remotely normal trading conditions.