Category Archives: Brics

4/5/20: Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs Crater to Historic Lows

I do not commonly cover Eurozone PMIs, but April read-out is shocking. Truly, abysmally, shocking.

From Markit release:

  • Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 33.4 in April (Flash: 33.6, March Final: 44.5), so down 11.1 points m/m
  • March was bad - at 44.5 well below the zero growth line of 50.0. April came in woefully bad. 
  • Confidence sinks to record low and job losses mount
  • This was "the lowest ever recorded by the series (which began in June 1997), surpassing readings seen during the depths of the global financial crisis". 

I have covered BRICS and Global Manufacturing PMIs for April here:

4/5/20: Updated Covid19 charts

Post-weekend updated charts on COVID19:

First off, global comparatives on incidence rates and death rates:

The above chart shows lack of convincing decline in the rate of detected new cases and deaths worldwide. In the last three days, global case numbers posted another 'local peak' reading of 93.328 cases on May 2, which marks a fifth 'local peak' in the overall time series. 'Local trough' of 65,944 cases on April 28 - much touted in the media as the evidence of the pandemic moderating - has now been followed by four consecutive days of increases through May 2, and the usual declines in cases on May 3 and 4th. May 4th counts were 78,657, which ranks 18th most severe increase in overall time history of the series.

U.S. vs EU27 comparatives:

To better capture the convergence in death rates between the EU and the U.S., here is a summary chart plotting the gap in death rates per 1 million of population between the two:

In simple terms, U.S. deaths rate per 1 million of population trailed the EU27 by 31.4 points back on April 8th. This gap has now closed to 11.6 points on April 27th. Note: we have to compare U.S. and EU27 figures referencing a 7-days gap in the timing of the major pandemic dynamics on-set in the U.S. vs EU27.

Finally, an update on data for Russia and BRICS:

The pattern established in recent weeks persists: Russia continues to post higher numbers (increasing) in the new detected cases, while Russia's death rate per confirmed case remains well below the BRIICS comparatives. Russia's death rate per 1 million population is statistically within the BRIICS range.

3/5/20: Financial Strength Across Emerging Markets

A somewhat simplified, but nonetheless telling heat map of financial strengths and vulnerabilities across emerging market/middle income economies via the Economist:

I have outlined European economies included (for some strange reason, the Baltics are not in the assessment, neither are Bulgaria, Moldova, etc). The top 9 as well as those ranked 11th, 12th and 15th are economies with no risk category at or below 'moderate'.  The bottom 15 have no risk category within a 'safety' zone.

Have fun with these...

7/2/20: Mapping Real Economic Debt: BRICS

Some great charts on real economic debt, via IIF, with my highlighting of the BRICS economies:

First off, mapping corporate debt and government debt as a share of GDP:

 China is an outlier within the BRICS group when it comes to corporate debt.

 Chart above shows how dramatic has been deleveraging out of FX-denominated debt in Russia over the last decade. Much of this came from the reduction in US Dollar-denominated exposures.

Lastly, the chart above showing changes in the US Dollar-denominated debt quality (by corporate ratings). Again, Russia is a positive stand-alone in this, with more positive outlook than negative outlook corporates - a trend strikingly different from both the Emerging Markets overall, and for other BRIC economies.