Monthly Archives: January 2021

Australian Politics 2021-01-28 06:05:00

Uncategorized


‘Bad theology kills’: Senior cleric returns honour over Margaret Court decision

In its new guise as the Uniting church, the Methodists have undergone a rapid falling away from their traditional devotion to Bible teachings. The guy quoted below reflects that

It's hugely perverse that he calls a devotion to Bible teachings "bad theology". Surely the bad theology is anything leads you away from faith in God and his clear teachings. Consult Romans 1:27; Jude 1:7; 1 Timothy 1:8-11; Mark 10:6-9; Matthew 19: 4-16; 1 Corinthians 6: 9-11; 1 Corinthians 7:2; Leviticus 18:22; Leviticus 20:13; Genesis 19:4-8 if you want to read good theology. The Bible repeatedly makes clear that homosexuality is a defiance of God. Real Christians accept that

All sexual acts are voluntary. Everybody has the choice to engage in them or not


A church leader says Margaret Court’s “bad theology” is his reason for joining the growing list of Order of Australia members who are returning their awards in protest against her elevation to the country’s highest civilian honour.

A number of recipients, including retired broadcaster Kerry O’Brien and acclaimed artist Peter Kingston, have either returned or refused awards and others say theirs have been tarnished.

In this week’s Australia Day awards, Court was elevated from an Officer of the Order of Australia (AO) to a Companion of the Order of Australia (AC) for her sporting success.

As a tennis player, she won 24 grand slam women’s singles titles, but as a Pentecostal pastor she has preached against LGBTQ rights, opposed same-sex marriage and, in 2017, compared homosexuality with Hitler and “the devil”.

The Reverend Alistair Macrae, a former president of the Uniting Church in Australia who was appointed an Officer of the Order of Australia for his contributions to the church and the community, said on Wednesday that he would be handing back his award.

“As a minister and theologian, I am aware that bad theology kills people,” Mr Macrae wrote in an opinion piece for The Age.

“Bad theology underpinned the racist apartheid regime in South Africa. Bad theology supported Hitler’s racist ideology and the evil it produced. Bad theology underpinned or failed to recognise the racist assumptions behind the destructive program of colonisation not least in this land. Bad theology continues to alienate and oppress sexual minorities.”

Court has stated that her religious views are separate from her sporting career, comments which Mr Macrae argued were disingenuous for a public figure.

He pointed to high suicide rates in the LGBTQ community and stressed that Court’s views were not shared by all Christians.“If it harms people, from my perspective, it’s not from God,” he said.

Grampians cross burning spurs call for action



State and federal authorities are being urged to take further action against a right-wing extremist group that burnt a cross and chanted racist slogans at a popular Victorian tourist destination over the Australia Day weekend.

Thirty-eight members of the far right National Socialist Network burnt a cross next to Lake Bellfield at the foot of the Grampians, a ritual usually associated with the Ku Klux Clan, in central Victoria on Sunday evening. Tourists and locals heard the group chanting “white power” and Nazi slogans.

On Thursday morning, The Age and Sydney Morning Herald revealed local police and intelligence officers from Victoria Police’s Counter Terrorism Command were collecting information about the group, which hiked through the Grampians National Park on the weekend.

The group’s members also visited the tourist town at the foot of the Grampians, Halls Gap, where they engaged in anti-Semitic and other racist behaviour. At least half a dozen tourists and residents said they had reported the men to police.

Six uniformed officers from the nearby town of Stawell spoke to the group, including its leader, ex-Australian army soldier turned neo-Nazi Tom Sewell. Mr Sewell later posted online pictures of the police officers’ name badges as well as images of the neo-Nazi group posing in front of a burning cross and displaying Nazi salutes at various locations in the Grampians.

Mr Sewell has previously sought to distance his group from those that espouse violent action and there is no suggestion that the group’s members engaged in any violent acts.

When Halls Gap resident James passed the group on his mountain bike on Sunday afternoon in town, he was addressed with a Sieg Heil.

“There were 40 white males, many with skinheads, some chanting ‘white power’. That is intimidating for anyone.”

According to extremist experts, two right-wing groups, the Lads Society and Antipodean Resistance, recently helped form a new Australian extremist outfit, the National Socialist Network, which in turn helped organise the 38 young white men to assemble in the Grampians over the Australia Day weekend. Photos show some wearing army-issued boots and packs.

The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald have identified some of the key organisers and participants of the Grampians gathering. Some show the faces of young men who would prefer to stay in the shadows — posing in their own online posts with faces covered.

The organisers were the Lads leader, Mr Sewell, raised in the middle-class suburb of Balwyn in Melbourne, and Stuart Von Moger, a security guard who has appeared at several far-right events and meetings with political figures who were unaware of his ideology. The Lads have also been accused of a failed attempt to branch-stack the NSW Young Nationals in 2018.

Mr Sewell has claimed in a social media post that the Grampians event was aimed at providing “content” for a new neo-Nazi group, the European Australian Movement.

He has the hallmarks of some far-right activists in the US, including those who stormed the Capitol three weeks ago, a move which Mr Sewell said in one online message had lessons for Australian extremists.

ASIO recently revealed that up to 40 per cent of its resources are being directed towards right-wing extremist groups.

NAPLAN ban by Queensland Teachers’ Union ruled unlawful

Queensland teachers have been told they must continue NAPLAN testing this year despite a boycott by a major union.

A plan by Queensland teachers to boycott NAPLAN testing has been given a fail grade by the Industrial Court, with teaching of the controversial test set to go ahead this year.

State school teachers in the Queensland Teachers’ Union voted almost unanimously to boycott teaching the controversial test to pupils in October last year.

However, in an internal memo circulated to all Department of Education staff on Friday, director-general Tony Cook announced the industrial dispute had been slapped down by the courts.

“The department considered the directive to be unprotected industrial action, and therefore unlawful, and sought the assistance of the Queensland Industrial Relations Commission to resolve the matter,” Mr Cook said.

Following an appeal by the QTU, Mr Cook said the Industrial Courts sided with the Education Department, ruling on Thursday that “the QTU … immediately cease and do not recommence.”

QTU president Cresta Richardson said the union’s executive was now considering its next steps, saying the test had been shown to have a negative impact on students’ wellbeing.

“It’s use is beyond what it was meant for,” Ms Richardson said.

“The main focus of teachers for student outcome should be on the day to date teaching, learning and assessment that students receive and the outcome of such assessments.”

In a statement, the Department of Education told The Courier-Mail the decision was now an opportunity to move forward with “fully implementing the Australian Curriculum.”

“The department accepts the decision of the Queensland Industrial Relations Commission and will continue to consult with the Queensland Teachers Union on the most appropriate way forward,” a spokesman said.

Among those who welcomed the decision to resume NAPLAN was the 222-member Teachers’ Professional Association of Queensland.

The organisation’s vice-president Cameron Murray said the controversial test was a powerful tool to ensure schools weren’t missing elements of students’ learning.

“We’ve always supported NAPLAN as a measure of student progress,” Mr Murray said. “It’s a diagnostic which can tell everyone – parents, teachers, kids, the Education Department – of our progress,” he said. “I truly believe that NAPLAN allows us to identify where there’s gaps and where there’s need for support.”

Mr Murray praised teachers as skilled but said the NAPLAN system was designed to “trust but verify” student performance.

Labor set for climate change shift with architect of emissions target Mark Butler to go

Labor's long-serving climate spokesperson Mark Butler has been shifted from the portfolio as part of an Opposition reshuffle on the eve of Federal Parliament's return.
Key points:

While Mr Butler takes on responsibility for health, deputy party leader Richard Marles moves from the defence portfolio to a broad brief across national reconstruction, jobs, skills, small business and science.

Brendan O'Connor, formerly employment spokesperson moves into defence, Ed Husic slides from agriculture into the innovation portfolio, and Chris Bowen goes into climate change.

Tasmanian MP Julie Collins shifts into agriculture from her previous role for ageing, seniors and women.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese said the changes reflected the best choices, not the easiest choices. "This reshuffle is about Australians getting the most out of Labor," he said.

He said Mr Marles would be "leading Labor's focus" on the recovery from the pandemic.

Outspoken backbencher Joel Fitzgibbon has backed moving Mr Butler, saying that taking the long-serving climate spokesperson — a member of the more progressive left faction of the party — out of the role would send the "right message to our traditional base".

Mr Fitzgibbon, a member of the more conservative right faction who resigned from the frontbench in protest at the direction of the party, said on Thursday morning that he respected Mr Butler but the change was a "good thing". "It will send the right message to our traditional base, but it won't be enough alone," he told RN.

"We also need to recalibrate our policy and our messaging if we are to reassure our traditional base that while we are serious on taking action on climate change — meaningful action — we will do so without risk or threat to their livelihoods."

Mr Albanese said on Thursday morning Mr Fitzgibbon's comments were "wrong". "They don't reflect the overwhelming view of people in the Labor Party," he said.

"The overwhelming view of people in the Labor Party is that we need strong action on climate change, and that strong action is good for jobs, that it's good for lowering emissions, and also good for lowering energy prices."

Mr Albanese says he regards climate change "as an economic portfolio, therefore someone who has been the Treasurer of Australia is eminently qualified to fill that role". Mr Bowen was briefly Treasurer in 2013 in the last Kevin Rudd government.

In a statement, Mr Butler said "the job of every front bencher is to serve in the portfolio allocated by their leader".

"That's always been my position under the four leaders I've had the privilege of serving under Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese."

Mr Butler has been in the role since late 2013, after briefly serving as climate change minister under then-prime minister Mr Rudd. Labor has failed to defeat the Coalition in the two elections since then, a period of disagreement around the extent to which Australia should be reducing carbon emissions.

Labor took a policy of reducing carbon emissions by 45 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030 to the election in 2019, compared to the Government's longstanding pledge of reducing emissions by 26 per cent in the same timeframe.

Mr Fitzgibbon suffered a massive swing against him in his Hunter Valley seat at the 2019 poll, beating the Nationals candidate by just 3 percentage points.

A One Nation candidate claimed more than 21 per cent of the vote, and the Labor MP's first preferences dropped by 14 percentage points.

This week the leader of the National Party, Michael McCormack, supported a push by his colleagues to build a new coal fired power plant in the Hunter.

Despite more than 100 countries signing up for a net zero emissions by 2050 target and many also making commitments before then, Australia is yet to make pledges beyond 2030.

The Government announced this week it had signed up to international efforts to help prepare the world for anticipated climate change.

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Also see my other blogs. Main ones below:

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com (TONGUE TIED)

http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

https://heofen.blogspot.com/ (MY OTHER BLOGS)

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The Price of Campbell’s Tomato Soup in the Coronavirus Pandemic

The average discounted sale price of a Number 1 can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup jumped 13 cents per can during 2020, rising from $0.86 to $0.99 from March through December as the coronavirus pandemic worked its way to, then through the U.S.

In essence, what happened is that increased consumer demand for Campbell's Tomato Soup during the pandemic led grocers to stop discounting their sale prices for the product as reflected in their weekly ads. Here's the latest update to our chart tracking the average discounted sale price of Campbell's iconic cans of tomato soup from January 1898 through January 2021.

Unit Price per Can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup at Discounted Sale Pricing, January 1898 - January 2021

That situation may be starting to change in 2021, but in a way we think is very specifically attributable to the pandemic. In January 2021, we noted weekly ad circulars putting Campbell's tomato soup on sale at a 50% discount compared to their shelf pricing, with the 10.75-ounce cans carrying a unit price of 50 cents.

Winter months typically represent the peak season for purchases of Campbell's tomato soup, so these sales represent a very atypical event. We quickly found the reason for the discounts after visiting several grocery stores in a region that has been greatly affected by the winter surge in COVID-19 cases, where we found the coronavirus pandemic has prompted a shift in consumer demand:

Political Calculations: Relative Supply of Campbell's Condensed Tomato and Chicken Noodle Soups, January 2021

As you can see in the this picture, Campbell's Chicken Noodle is sold out, while there are ample supplies of Campbell's Tomato Soup. What this indicates is that consumers in this coronavirus-hit area have developed a strong preference for Chicken Noodle soup, which many perceive help relieve cold and flu symptoms.

The pandemic-influenced shift in consumer preference accounts for the relative oversupply of tomato soup with respect to chicken noodle soup, and thus, the atypical sale prices for Campbell's Tomato Soup at this point of the pandemic.

Altogether, all this means is that the pandemic has not changed the laws of supply and demand.

Australian Politics 2021-01-27 09:41:00

Uncategorized


Heatwaves may mean Sydney is too hot for people to live in 'within decades'

This is a heap of nonsense. I grew up in Far North Queensland where temperatures that would flatten some Southerners were normal. According to the BOM, Sydney has a December mean maximum temperature of 25.2 while in Cairns it is 31.5. So many days were over 30 degrees Celsius in Cairns while such days were rare in Sydney. We just accepted such days as normal and went about our business in Cairns. Life went on as usual. It wasn't too hot to live in.

It is true that Sydney has always had some very hot days. Back in 1790 it was so hot that bats were falling out of the trees. But life has gone on in Sydney ever since and it will continue to do so. It is no drama


Parts of Victoria and NSW are sweating through an extreme heatwave that started sweeping across Australia's southeast on Saturday.

This may seem like just a good excuse to go to the beach, but as the planet warms and summers become longer and less bearable, heatwaves are coming to represent an existential threat to Australian suburbs.

Already, heat kills more people in Australia than any other natural disaster, including floods, cyclones and bushfires.

Now, faced with the prospect of 50-degree-plus summers, experts say highly urbanised parts of Australia may become unliveable within decades.

The race is on to re-imagine, redesign and rebuild the Australian suburb. Car parks may be ripped up and planted with trees and greenery, houses retro-fitted with insulation, roads painted to reflect rather than absorb heat, and supermarkets and even whole suburbs built underground to reduce cooling costs.

One centre of these efforts is Western Sydney, home to more than 2.5 million people. In this floodplain of closely packed houses, heat pools on islands of black bitumen and collects on sun-baked concrete.

The mercury gets close to 50 degrees Celsius here in summer — and that's just the ambient air temperature. The radiant heat from bitumen carparks can push 80C. The surface temperature of playground equipment has been measured at 100C.

Since 2019, all 33 Sydney councils have been funding a climate adaptation program that has identified heat as the number-one climate threat to Sydneysiders.

"We are not yet building a city that's really equipping our people to survive and adapt extreme heat," says Beck Dawson, who heads the Resilience Sydney program.

"If the community doesn't have access to things to make themselves cool we effectively have a very large oven occurring across the Western Sydney plains.

"The scale of the emerging threat is different to anything we've faced before."

Businessman films the sick moment a black URINATES on his $80k BMW because he 'can't find a bathroom'

Leo Alhalabi caught the stranger relieving himself on his car's back left tyre outside a property in Melbourne on January 14.

The horrified digital marketing guru, 24, confronted the man, who had parked his white Toyota behind the flashy M4 in broad daylight on the quiet suburban street.

'Why did you park specifically here to piss on my car? Is it because it's a nice car?' Mr Alhalabi asked the man, as seen in a video he shared on Instagram.

As the stranger stuttered and stumbled through his replies, Mr Alhalabi probed further, asking: 'Why piss here?'

'I was just pissing there because I haven't got a bathroom,' the man replied.

Mr Alhalabi stifled a laugh and said: 'You don't have a bathroom so you piss on my car?'

The man repeatedly apologised and offered to wash the tyre.

Mr Alhalabi agreed to let him rinse the urine off the wheel and promised not to 'do anything' to him.

'Life is all about forgiveness, okay? So I'm not going to do anything to you,' he said, triggering a wave of grovelling apologies from the stranger.

When the man said 'there is no bathroom in the city, Mr Alhalabi's friend chimed in and said: 'There's a tree. A car's not to piss on'.

The businessman called police, who said there was nothing they could do about it.

At the end of the video, Mr Alhalabi congratulated himself for keeping his cool during the confrontation. He wrote: Don't let people trick you out of your position. I'll take the no assault charges or jail time.' 'Despite how much they may have deserved it.'

People in the comments praised the businessman for remaining calm.

Why internet search and social would barely miss a beat if Google and Facebook carried through with their threats to pull out of Australia

There's no doubting the power of Google and Facebook. They are two of the most popular and valuable companies on the planet and their bosses are influential multi-billionaires.

Even the company names have become verbs - for searching online, and for adding new virtual friends.

There's no doubt threats by the tech giants to withdraw their most popular services for Australian users would cause problems initially if they follow through - but ultimately the decision would backfire on both, experts say.

Both Google and Facebook faced a fierce backlash for their defiant responses to a new law, the News Bargaining Code, which will force them to negotiate payment to media companies for the news content they use.

Google's response to a Senate Committee was to threaten stopping Google Search in Australia, while Facebook said it may have to block links to new articles in it's popular News Feed. Both companies have proposed alternatives including voluntary instead of mandatory codes, which have not been accepted by the Federal Government.

Alternatives to a Google search

Bing - the default search engine for the Microsoft Edge browser is the next biggest after Google, but still only has 3.74% of web traffic in Australia despite being around for 11 years

DuckDuckGo - considered the 'anti-google', this search engine doesn't collect personal data and claims to use 400 sources to return search results

Yelp - Australian search engine which specialises in locating local businesses such as restaurants, doctors, beauty salons and bars

The tech giants must have felt they were on strong ground when U.S. authorities backed them up, calling on Australia to scrap the proposed laws.

Google and Facebook's threats drew a series of stinging response from across the political spectrum, as well as from industry representatives and academics.

Most notably Prime Minister Scott Morrison slammed the bullying: 'People who want to work with that in Australia, you're very welcome. But we don't respond to threats.'

Both companies make huge profits in Australia but have drawn criticism for how little tax they pay.

The Australian Financial Review reported Facebook Australia earned nearly $674 million by Australian advertisers in 2019, but paid under $17 million.

Google did even better, making $4.3 billion in 2019, and paying less than $100 million.

Experts and industry spokespeople say if the tech giants make good on their threats millions of users would face impacts ranging from annoyance, to receiving even more dodgy information than usual, to potential health risks.

Small businesses that rely on Google ad words campaigns for people to find them would also be thrown into uncertainty.

'Dominance by one player does not end well for society. Google is not evil its just too dominant,' says Peter Strong the CEO of the Council of Small Business.

'The world is watching us to see what happens next, it really is.'

But ultimately, Australians - including business - would adjust and cope. A move to block Australian users would end up being 'self-destructive'.

'It is self-defeating and self-destructive to treat your users in these ways,' said Peter Lewis, from the Australia Institute's Centre for Responsible Technology.

'Ultimately these companies are networks of users and they're only as strong as their networks. If they make decisions that weaken those networks and don't respect their users, ultimately they weaken themselves.'

'We managed to survive before Google, and I'm sure we could again.' 'We'll find a workaround, we always do,' Mr Lewis says.

On Facebook chat threads, internet natives and heavy users appear relatively unfazed by the potential for Google Search to be blocked for Australians. Many said they would simply use the Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) they already pay for to get around geoblocking.

For those without a VPN, Google is not the only search engine that works.

Australian consumer tech website Gizmodo recommended four 'great alternatives as the legislation went before parliament: the so-called 'anti-google' DuckDuckGo, the family friendly Swisscows, Ecosia and Bing.

'DuckDuckGo is popular because it positions itself as being the 'anti-Google'. Unlike the tech giant, it doesn't store cookies or any kind of identifiable personal information,' according to Gizmodo.

'There would certainly be a learning curve for consumers to understand that there are alternative options out there,' says Teresa Corbin, CEO of The Australian Communications Consumer Action Network (ACCAN).

'Ultimately though some of the alternative search providers do not profile users and provide more privacy options for consumers.'

The Google Search users who will be looking for new ideas with the greatest urgency will be micro business owners and those in highly competitive markets, such as cafes, restaurants, hairdressers and tradespeople.

'We don't know what would happen, we're trying to work that out,' says Peter Strong, CEO of the Council of Small Business.

'Small businesses usually just get someone to do this for them and then forget about it. Well if Google pulls out, they're gone.

'How would people find a local hairdresser, or plumbing business, cafes, or delivery businesses? Of course they will start using other search engines, but this will cause a lot of uncertainty.'

'There could be health impacts too. What if you order your medicines online or need to get your wheelchair fixed?'

Ms Corbin agrees: "Australians would be able to adjust to using alternative services.'

'However, there are still many questions to be answered about what the future of the internet in Australia would look like if Google and Facebook follow through on these threats, such as how small businesses who depend on Google Ads in search will be affected.'

Mr Lewis agrees business will struggle, but will find other ways to reach their audiences - 'maybe even back through to news organisations.'

While it seems unlikely that news organisations could end up recommencing large scale online classifieds as a solution - the loss of which sunk the business models that newspapers operated for decades - things change quickly online.

News organisations are already building search and aggregation tools for bona fide news sites - such as Daily Mail's Newzit - have also sprung up in recent times that could meet a demand for fact-based news services.

Tama Leaver, Professor of Internet Studies, at Curtin University, says contrary to some reports, Facebook is not threatening to shut down the News Feed for Australians.

What is proposed is worse than that, Mr Leaver says.

'If you drop a link to an interesting news article into your post it wouldn't work. Information from unverified sources would start to clutter up the feed - that's a significant shift away from verified information.

'To me that is a huge issue. Facebook is already fighting a war against disinformation and it is not winning, the likes of 5G and Covid conspiracies.'

'Without credible sources to counter that Facebook could become even more of a cesspool for misinformation,' Mr Leaver says.

So where can people go for news - apart from the obvious choices of news websites and news aggregation sites?

It is likely that news will migrate in greater volumes to other social media platforms, such as Twitter and Instagram - which carried virtually no news until the last couple of years.

Ultimately, Mr Lewis doesn't think the threats by Google and Facebook will work: 'By threatening to leave by attempting to block users, they've backed themselves into a corner.' 'Unless they have a master plan I'm not seeing, I cant see how this ends with them getting what they want.'

'Google and Facebook need to come to the table in good faith,' Ms Corbin says.

'We saw Google recently agree to a copyright framework agreement with French publishers that required them to pay news publishers for their online content, so the idea of a deal is not incomprehensible to these tech giants.'

Mr Lewis says it's important to note that the News Media Bargaining Code is the first of several major changes to the way information is shared online.

Major changes will follow soon relating to data privacy, the transparency of advertising and the spread of misinformation.

These changes are seen as more urgent since it became obvious that conspiracy theories - such as those surrounding COVID-19, QAnon, Brexit and the US election - were spreading quickly online.

Google has defended itself in statements posted to YouTube and available on the Google search page. It has also laid out its case in an open letter.

NSW walks away from Norfolk Island services, Queensland poised to take control



NSW's association with Norfolk Island appears likely to end, after Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk confirmed her Government was in talks about taking over a service contract on the tiny external territory.

"We've heard that New South Wales wants to abandon their responsibilities there so we are very keen to have those further discussions with the Federal Government," she said.

The NSW Government has been running Norfolk Island's school and health system since the Federal Government revoked the island's self-ruling status in 2015. But that service contract expires in June.

"It's an issue we've been discussing with the Commonwealth for the past two or three years and something we feel strongly about, in terms of what needs to happen," NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said.

The NSW Government has committed to servicing the island, which is home to less than 2,000 people, until the end of this year.

The Federal Government is liaising with other states to secure an arrangement for next year and beyond.

The Norfolk Island Regional Council governs the territory — which was handed to Australia by the United Kingdom in 1914 — and is bankrolled by the Commonwealth.

However, NSW provides health and education funding at a cost of more than $32 million per year.

Norfolk Island's administrator, Eric Hutchinson said: "Both education and health services on the island are critical services, just as they are I think in any other community large or small around a big country."

While he would not speculate on who he thinks should take over the services contract, he admitted Queensland was a logical partner with three island flights operating out of Brisbane each week.

"We've seen many Australians visiting Norfolk Island for the first time, a very remote part of a big country and that's benefiting businesses here on the island and we hope that that will continue."

In a statement a spokesman for the Commonwealth Department of Infrastructure said "the Australian Government is committed to the continuity of essential state services on Norfolk Island".

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Also see my other blogs. Main ones below:

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com (TONGUE TIED)

http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

https://heofen.blogspot.com/ (MY OTHER BLOGS)

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Disorder in the S&P 500 During the Coronavirus Recession

From time to time, we take on the challenge of telling a very big story with a single chart. Today, we're taking on the economic story of the coronavirus recession in the United States, as seen through the lens of the relationship between the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) and its trailing year dividends per share. Here's the chart.

S&P 500 Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 30 September 2019 through 22 January 2021

For the chart, we've arbitrarily picked up the story from the end of the third quarter of 2019 to illustrate that the story of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States began during a relative period of order for the U.S. stock market. The current period of disorder began shortly after the market peaked on 19 February 2020, when investors began shifting their forward-looking focus from the distant future quarter of 2020-Q4 toward the nearer term future of 2020-Q2. This shift in the forward time horizon of investors was prompted by expectations the Federal Reserve would soon be forced to slash short term interest rates in response to the developing global economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

After 23 March 2020, the market underwent a regime change caused by the Fed's aggressive response and the U.S. government's fiscal stimulus to provide relief for the pandemic's economic disruption, in which the Fed would employ its quantitative easing tools to underwrite and finance nearly all the U.S. government's deficit spending at near-zero interest rates. That regime change effectively reset the relationship between stock prices and their underlying fundamentals, making it possible for stock prices to rise while dividends have fallen.

How long that state of affairs might be sustained remains to be seen.

Disorder in the S&P 500 During the Coronavirus Recession

From time to time, we take on the challenge of telling a very big story with a single chart. Today, we're taking on the economic story of the coronavirus recession in the United States, as seen through the lens of the relationship between the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) and its trailing year dividends per share. Here's the chart.

S&P 500 Index Value vs Trailing Year Dividends per Share, 30 September 2019 through 22 January 2021

For the chart, we've arbitrarily picked up the story from the end of the third quarter of 2019 to illustrate that the story of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States began during a relative period of order for the U.S. stock market. The current period of disorder began shortly after the market peaked on 19 February 2020, when investors began shifting their forward-looking focus from the distant future quarter of 2020-Q4 toward the nearer term future of 2020-Q2. This shift in the forward time horizon of investors was prompted by expectations the Federal Reserve would soon be forced to slash short term interest rates in response to the developing global economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

After 23 March 2020, the market underwent a regime change caused by the Fed's aggressive response and the U.S. government's fiscal stimulus to provide relief for the pandemic's economic disruption, in which the Fed would employ its quantitative easing tools to underwrite and finance nearly all the U.S. government's deficit spending at near-zero interest rates. That regime change effectively reset the relationship between stock prices and their underlying fundamentals, making it possible for stock prices to rise while dividends have fallen.

How long that state of affairs might be sustained remains to be seen.