The daily action of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) nearly crossed the threshold of becoming very interesting last week. For us, we define "very interesting" as being a three percent change from its previous day's closing value. But ultimately, the index came up short, ending the trading week at 3,900.86 after dropping 2.91% on Friday, 10 June 2022.

That nearly very interesting decline happened because the Consumer Price Inflation report came in much hotter than expected, confirming President Biden's inflation still hasn't been slowed. Because that's the case, the report shifted a portion of the forward-looking attention of investors back toward the current quarter of 2022-Q2. The new information about U.S. inflation puts more attention on what the Federal Reserve may do about it when they meet next week, accounting for the partial shift.

But not a full shift, for the practical reason of the coming expiration of dividend futures contracts for 2022-Q2. With those contracts expiring on Friday, 17 June 2022, investors kept a majority of their focus on 2022-Q3 as their primary time horizon.

At least, that's what we can divine from the latest update to the dividend futures-based model alternative futures chart.

It's possible this change will become large enough to fully qualify as a new Lévy flight event. On that count, we'll find out for sure soon enough, and no later than at the end of the Fed's two day meeting on Wednesday, 15 June 2022.

Until then, here's our recap of the market moving headlines of the trading week ending 10 June 2022, where you can see investors began absorbing the news U.S. inflation would come in higher than previously anticipated on Thursday, 9 June 2022. Before that point in time, we would describe the day-to-day volatility of the index as being consistent with garden-variety noise.

Monday, 6 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. mulls lifting some China tariffs to fight inflation
• Former top Fed minion to face music for wrong inflation call:
• Yellen faces grilling in Congress over 'wrong' inflation forecast
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China May services activity contracts for third straight month - Caixin
• BOJ minions determined to keep never-ending stimulus plan going:
• BOJ's Kuroda vows unwavering stance in keeping ultra-easy policy
• ECB minions expected to do something about Eurozone inflation:
• Investment banks ramp up ECB rate hike forecasts
• Confronting the inflation beast: Five questions for the ECB
• Wall Street ends up with growth stocks, but inflation fears linger
• Stocks gain on improved sentiment, crude at $120

Tuesday, 7 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Record exports help shrink U.S. trade deficit
• Yellen says inflation to stay high, Biden likely to up forecast
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, Eurozone, World:
• Japan's household spending falls as rising costs squeeze consumers
• German industrial orders fall more than expected in April
• Italy statistics bureau cuts growth forecasts, warns of "strong downside risks"
• Mixed economic signs in China:
• China's May exports, imports seen recovering as supply chains restart - Reuters poll
• Analysis-China's consumers keep their wallets in lockdown as COVID curbs ease
• Central bank minions outside Japan take combatting inflation seriously:
• Australia's central bank raises rates by 50 bps in hawkish surprise
• All of Poland's MPC members backed 75 bps hike in March- voting records
• BOJ's Kuroda apologises for saying people are beginning to accept price rises
• Wall Street jumps with tech, energy; Target news weighs on retailers

Wednesday, 8 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. unveils new Latin America economic plan at reboot summit dogged by dissent
• U.S. plans new trade pact with 'like-minded partners,' says senior official
• Exclusive: Under Biden, China has widened trade lead in much of Latin America
• IMF's Gopinath sees risk of de-anchoring U.S. inflation expectations
• Yellen says high U.S. inflation won't be a decade-long problem
• Yellen says some China tariff cuts may be warranted, not inflation 'panacea'
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, China:
• BOJ to consider issuing bleaker view on output after China lockdowns - sources
• Downward pressure on China's economy still striking - cabinet
• Better than expected signs in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone GDP growth speeds up in Q1 despite Ukraine war, revised data show
• Central bank minions dealing with inflation, ECB minions to be late to rate hiking party:
• Instant View: India cenbank hikes rates for second straight month; drops 'accommodative' from stance
• Traders price in 75 bps of ECB rate hikes by September
• An ECB quandary: the hunt for a neutral euro zone interest rate
• Wall Street falls as Amazon, chipmakers weigh
• Wall Street falls with U.S. Treasury yields above 3%

Thursday, 9 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. weekly jobless near five-month high; labor market still very tight
• Yellen says U.S. recession unlikely, but no drop in gasoline prices soon
• U.S. official sees moderation in goods and services inflation in months ahead
• Bigger trouble developing in Mexico:
• Mexico annual inflation rate near 21-year high, rate hike seen
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China takes steps to ease up on regulatory crackdown as economy slows
• China's May new yuan loans seen rebounding on central bank support -Reuters poll
• ECB minions signal they're done thinking and will wait until July to start rate hikes:
• ECB signals rates lift-off, eyes bigger move in September
• ECB ends bond buys, signal July, Sept rate hikes
• ECB raises inflation, cuts growth forecasts
• Stocks, euro slip as ECB set to join rate hike club
• Wall St drops as investor jitters climb before CPI data Friday
• Market Panics After JPM Predicts CPI Will Come Hotter Than Expected, White House Confirms

Friday, 10 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. annual inflation posts largest gain in nearly 41 years as food, gasoline prices soar
• Oil dives as U.S. inflation data surges; China imposes lockdowns
• Expectations grow of more, bigger rate hikes by Fed minions:
• No respite from Fed rate hikes this year, chances rising of four 50 bps in a row - Reuters poll
• Fed seen sharpening rate hikes to smother searing inflation
• Bigger trouble developing in China, Japan:
• Parts of Shanghai return to Covid lockdown as Beijing district shuts entertainment venues
• Defying global surge, China's factory inflation hits 14-month low
• China's May vehicle sales fall 12.6%, industry body says
• Japan edges closer to intervention in yen after rare gov't, cbank joint statement
• Record surge in Japan's wholesale import costs rekindles weak yen concerns
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China new bank loans nearly triple in May as Beijing steps up policy support
• Bigger central bank rate hikes getting on the table to combat inflation:
• Czech inflation hits 16%, raising bets of big June rate hike
• Rates must rise but ECB will fight fragmentation: policymakers
• Canada jobless rate hits record low, bolstering case for 75-bps rate hike
• Wall Street ends down sharply as hot inflation data intensifies investor fears
• Wall St unnerved as hot inflation sparks fears of more combative Fed policy

Combining Thursday and Friday's investor reactions to news of higher than expected inflation in the U.S., the S&P 500 lost 5.3% of its value in response. The index was down 5.1% for the week, where that smaller change indicates the index was rising before the higher inflation news arrived.

A lot changed for expectations of the Federal Reserve's plan to hike rates in the latter part of the trading week ending on 10 June 2022. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is projecting a half point rate hike to be announced after the Fed meets next week (2022-Q2), with a greater than 20% probability they'll boost it to a three-quarter point hike. Beyond that, the FedWatch tool now also expects a three-quarter point rate hike just six weeks later (2022-Q3), followed by another half point rate hike in September 2022 (also 2022-Q3), which has become the future quarter of interest for investors to focus their forward-looking attention.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool turned even more pessimistic in the past week. Its forecast of real GDP growth of 0.9% for the U.S. in 2022-Q2 is down from last week's projection of 1.3% annualized growth. If that downward trend continues, it suggests the U.S. economy is potentially in the midst of experiencing two consecutive quarters of real GDP shrinkage, which many associate with the economy being in recession.

Update 13 June 2022, 11:00 PM EDT: A New Lévy Flight Event

It's official. This is the seventh Lévy Flight event of 2022. Investors have fully shifted their attention back to the current quarter of 2022-Q2, waiting to see what the Fed will do next. There are surging expectations that the Fed will hike rates on Wednesday by at least 75 basis points (three-quarters of a percent), rather than the 50 basis point rate hike the Fed's minions had been signaling for weeks.

With no new Lévy flight events for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), the recent volatility for the U.S. stock market settled down during the past week. In their place, the index substituted what we consider to be garden variety noise in its day-to-day trading activities.

By the end of the week, the level of the S&P 500 remains consistent with the dividend futures-based model projection associated with investors focusing their forward-looking attention on 2022-Q3. The latest update to the alternative futures chart confirms that assessment.

What the Fed will do with interest rates in September 2022 remains the key concern for investors, where whether the Fed takes a break from its current plan to hike the Federal Funds Rate by a half point every six weeks was put on the table a week earlier, only to be seemingly taken back off the table in the past week. Or not. Investors ended the week with more questions than answers about what the Fed will do at that future point of time, which is why it has become their primary time horizon.

Here are the market-moving headlines for the week ending 3 June 2022, where you can get a sense of both how and when investors were exposed to the news that altered their future expectations.

Tuesday, 31 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Rising cost of living hurts U.S. consumer confidence; house prices soar
• U.S. house price inflation to cool as buyers sidelined by higher rates: Reuters poll
• Oil pares gains as OPEC eyes exempting Russia from output deal
• Biden's June agenda: convince Americans the economy is healthy
• White House says canceling student loans wouldn't drive up inflation much
• Fed minion really wants to hike rates, greatest economic minds in U.S. meet:
• Fed's Waller backs 50 bps rate hikes until "substantial" reduction in inflation
• Fed's Waller: If inflation doesn't go away, we need to raise rates a lot higher
• Biden, Fed Chair Powell meet to discuss 40-year-high inflation
• Biden highlights Fed inflation role ahead of Powell meeting on Tuesday
• Biden congratulates Powell, promises Fed 'laser focus' on inflation
• Bigger trouble developing in China, South Korea, Japan:
• China's factory activity likely contracted more slowly in May - Reuters poll
• Decline in China's factory activity slows as COVID curbs ease
• S.Korea's April factory output shrinks most in 2 years, service output expands
• Japan's April factory output slumps in sign of pressure on economy
• Japan Q2, full-year growth to be weaker than previously estimated
• Bigger stimulus developing in China, never-ending stimulus in Japan:
• China announces detailed stimulus measures to support virus-hit economy
• China rushes bond sales to spur COVID-hit economy, more seen needed
• BOJ's Kuroda sticks to powerful easing, sees inflation as short-lived
• ECB minions thinking about someday doing something about Eurozone inflation:
• ECB speakers spar on rate hikes as inflation hits new high
• German inflation beat firms case for bigger ECB rate hike
• S&P edges down after last week's rally with inflation in focus

Wednesday, 1 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. job openings fall; manufacturing regains speed
• U.S. manufacturing sector regains speed in May-ISM
• Dimon says brace for U.S. economic 'hurricane' due to inflation
• U.S. firms show first hints of impact of Fed's policy tightening, survey shows
• Former top Fed minion and current Biden Treasury Secretary admits they botched policy response to developing inflation, current Fed minions wants to hike rates higher more quickly:
• Yellen says she was 'wrong' about inflation path; Biden backs Fed
• Fed's Daly: let's get U.S. interest rates to 2.5% as quickly as we can
• Fed's Bullard: high inflation 'straining' credibility
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, China:
• Euro zone factories struggled in May as consumers switched to leisure activities
• German retail sales drop in April as food prices bite
• French manufacturing activity at seven-month low in May -PMI
• Global factory growth stunted by war, China's COVID curbs
• BOJ minions determined to keep stimulus going:
• BOJ must maintain easy policy until wages rise more, says deputy gov Wakatabe
• ECB minions expected to go for big rate hike in September 2022:
• Deutsche Bank sees a 50 bps ECB rate hike by September
• Wall Street ends lower as economic data fails to ease rate hike angst

Thursday, 2 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. labor market stays strong; unemployment rolls smallest since 1969
• U.S. productivity tumbles in first quarter; labor costs surge
• White House not expecting 'blockbuster' jobs reports every month
• U.S. factory orders rise modestly in April
• Fed minions don't want to stop hiking rates anytime soon:
• Fed policymakers: September rate hike a question of how big, not if
• Fed's Brainard says 'very hard' to see case for September pause
• Fed's Mester: more rate hikes ahead in 'painful' battle with inflation
• Bigger trouble developing in South Korea:
• South Korea May factory growth slows as output, export orders shrink - PMI
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• Japan price pressures mount as firms ditch 'deflation' model, says BOJ official
• Bank of Canada minions get rate-hike happy:
• Bank of Canada hikes rates to 1.5%, says will act 'more forcefully' if needed
• Nest egg no more: Inflation eats Canadian consumer cash pile, risking growth
• BOJ minions starting to notice inflationary pressures for first time in decades:
• Japan price pressures mount as firms ditch 'deflation' model, says BOJ official
• Wall Street ends sharply higher, led by Tesla and Nvidia

Friday, 3 June 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. job growth solid in May; unemployment rate steady at 3.6%
• Instant View: US May payrolls rise up than expected
• U.S. service sector growth slows again in May - ISM survey
• Fed minions got a fever, the only prescription is more rate hike cowbell!
• More Fed rate hikes on tap even as job gains moderate
• Fed may need to stick to half-point rate hikes - Mester
• Strong U.S. labor market keeps Fed on aggressive rate hike path
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone May business growth robust but outlook darkens -PMI
• Euro zone retail trade weaker than expected as food sales fall
• Germany plans 5 billion-euro aid package for energy-intensive firms
• Germany aims for 30 billion eur investment in new start-up strategy
• BOJ minions discover inflation in Japan after decades of trying to create it:
• BOJ Kuroda highlights inflation as risk to Japan's economy
• Wall St ends down with strong jobs data keeping the pressure on for rate hikes
• Stock markets jolted by Musk's economy and jobs warning
• Exclusive-Musk feels 'super bad' about economy, needs to cut 10% of Tesla jobs
• Instant View: Elon Musk's 'super bad feeling' about the economy

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool still projects half point increases in the Federal Funds Rate after the Fed meets in June (2022-Q2) and July (2022-Q3). However, the FedWatch tool is now indicating a third half point rate hike in September (2022-Q3), up from the quarter point it forecast last week. That's followed by quarter point increases in November and December (2022-Q4). For its part, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool turned more pessimistic in the past week. Its forecast of real GDP growth of 1.3% for the U.S. in 2022-Q2 is down from last week's projection of 1.9% annualized growth for the current quarter.

The final week of May 2022 saw the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) deliver the index' sixth Lévy flight event of the year. In doing that, the index rose 6.6% from where it ended the previous week. The week-over-week increase breaks what had been the worst start for the S&P 500 for any year since 1939.

The move came as investors shifted their forward looking attention away from 2022-Q2 toward 2022-Q3. This shift has been expected since investors drew in their focus on 2022-Q2 back on 5 May 2022. Here's what the shift in the time horizon of investors looks like on the latest update to the dividend futures-based model's alternative futures chart:

The news that prompted the shift were the 23 May 2022 comments by Atlanta Fed President suggesting the Federal Reserve would pause its planned rate hikes after September 2022 (2022-Q3). Such a pause would be needed should the economy slow faster than the Fed desires as it tries to slow inflation, so Bostic's comments effectively closed the door on the possibility of the Fed announcing a three-quarter point rate hike in 2022-Q2. His comments then combined with other news during the remainder of the week to redirect investors to reset their forward-looking attention onto 2022-Q3 as the period of interest to focus upon next.

All that was left was a short squeeze to provide the mechanism by which the large upward move in stock prices would take place. Here, a number of unlucky hedge fund managers were happy to fuel what became the S&P 500's sixth Lévy flight event of 2022.

We don't often call our shots, so let's recap the key part of last week's edition of our S&P 500 chaos series, where we did just that:

... the clock is ticking down for how long investors can continue to fix their focus on 2022-Q2, which points to a potential investing opportunity that will exist until their forward-looking attention does shift to another point of time in the future in what will be the stock market's next Lévy flight event.

The lowest risk part of that specific investing opportunity is now gone, but there's still some upside remaining. Provided of course that investor expectations for dividends in future quarters don't erode, which would coincide with the U.S. economy becoming so pinched by inflation and the Fed's attempts to rein it in that it falls into recession.

We did mention that investors were influenced by other news during the week. Here's our summary of the market moving headlines that made up the random onset of news that investors continuously absorb:

Monday, 23 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. households felt financially flush going into 2022, Fed says
• Fed minions meet the new boss, same as the old boss; start getting cold feet about rate hikes:
• Powell sworn in to second four-year term as U.S. Fed chief
• Fed's Bostic suggests pausing rate hikes in September to assess impact
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China lockdowns, war risk derailing global jobs recovery: ILO
• China says it will take targeted steps to support the economy
• ECB minions say they're thinking about hiking rates later in 2022:
• ECB likely to get out of negative rates by September, Lagarde says
• Eurozone minions thinking about stopping doing so much stimulus:
• Euro zone plans fiscal policy shift from supportive to neutral
• Wall Street rallies on back of big tech, banks

Tuesday, 24 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. business activity slows in May, survey shows
• Record high U.S. house prices, rising mortgages depress new home sales
• Fed minions starting to get cold feet on rate hikes:
• Fed policymakers back two more big rate hikes, but then what?
• As Fed amps up inflation fight, one policymaker urges caution
• In Fed's inflation fight, Bostic wants to avoid 'recklessness'
• NY Fed sees 3-yr balance sheet rundown to $5.9 trln, slow MBS decline absent sales
• Bigger trouble developing in China, United Kingdom:
• China's property market woes expected to worsen in 2022 - Reuters poll
• Sharp slowdown in UK business activity rings recession alarm
• Positive signs in the Eurozone:
• Euro zone business growth slowed in May but still resilient -PMI
• German economy remains on growth path for now -PMI
• S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as weak economic data, dire outlooks stoke recession fears
• Factbox-Wall Street sees gray skies ahead for equities as Fed tightens policy

Wednesday, 25 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. core capital goods orders growth slows in April; shipments increase
• Oil edges higher on tight supply, rising U.S. refining activity
• Fed minions deliver no surprises:
• Fed minutes may shape debate over what follows June, July rate hikes
• Fed embraces 50-basis-point rate hikes in June, July to curb 'very high' inflation
• Most May FOMC participants backed 50 bp hikes in June and July
• Bigger trouble developing everywhere?
• IIF cuts 2022 global GDP growth estimate in half, flows to EM to drop 42%
• World Bank's Malpass says war in Ukraine may trigger global recession
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China to further expand infrastructure investment
• Central bank minions taking actions to address inflation:
• New Zealand raises cash rate 50 bps, signals a lot more to come
• Japan govt to urge BOJ to meet inflation goal sustainably - draft
• S.Africa's central bank flags inflation as major risk to domestic financial system
• Swiss National Bank chairman says global monetary policy moving into tightening phase - magazine
• Wall Street climbs after Fed minutes meet expectations

Thursday, 26 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. pending home sales dive to two-year low in April
• U.S. labor market hot, but declining profits cast shadow over economy
• Fed minions see diminishing role for U.S. dollar as global reserve currency; are expected to pause rate hikes after September 2022:
• Fed's Brainard: We can't take global status of U.S. dollar for granted
• Fed may pause policy tightening in September, BofA says
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China property market slumps on developers' debt crisis, weak buyer sentiment
• COVID-hit Shanghai heads for lockdown exit but China still lost in economic gloom
• China central bank urges more lending to small firms amid COVID shocks
• BOJ minions provide first indication they might not continue stimulus indefinitely:
• Kuroda says BOJ can achieve smooth exit from loose money policy
• BOK minions act to hike rates to combat inflation:
• South Korea steps up inflation fight with back-to-back rate hikes
• Wall Street surges on upbeat retail guidance, easing Fed fears

Friday, 27 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Key inflation gauge slowed to still-high 6.3% over past year
• Equities rise, yields fall after data shows U.S. inflation may have peaked
• Signs that Fed minions won't hike rates as much as previously expected shift investor focus to 2022-Q3:
• Peak interest rates may be lower than expected as growth slowdown looms
• Cooling U.S. inflation builds case for September slowdown in Fed rate hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China's industrial profits slump in April as COVID curbs squeeze firms
• Japan Apr factory output seen posting first fall in 3 months on China lockdown - Reuters poll
• China punishes local officials for falsifying economic data
• Shanghai takes baby steps towards ending COVID lockdown
• China's lending policy could trigger new debt crisis - Germany's Scholz
• Wall Street rallies to end longest weekly losing streak in decades

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is now projecting half point increases in the Federal Funds Rate after the Fed meets in June (2022-Q2) and July (2022-Q3), followed by quarter point increases at six week intervals through February 2023, topping out at 2.75%-3.00%.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2022-Q2, down from last week's projection of 2.4%.

The third week of May 2022 came and went with Federal Reserve officials signaling their willingness to hike interest rates higher than they've previously suggested. S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors locked their forward-looking focus on the current quarter of 2022-Q2 in response, held there by the uncertainty of what will come from the decisions the Fed will make before its end.

That's what we read in the latest update to the alternative futures chart, which reveals the index is tracking remarkably closely to the alternative trajectory associated with investors focusing their attention on the current quarter according to the dividend futures-based model.

It's unusual for the actual trajectory of stock prices to track so closely along with a particular projection for investors focusing on a given quarter. We normally see more noise in day-to-day trading than we've had during the past week. That said, the clock is ticking down for how long investors can continue to fix their focus on 2022-Q2, which points to a potential investing opportunity that will exist until their forward-looking attention does shift to another point of time in the future in what will be the stock market's next Lévy flight event.

This assumes we don't see significant erosion in the expectations for dividends expected in the upcoming quarters to which investors might next shift their attention. Fortunately, that prospect is so far a low risk consideration for the near term.

Here are the market-moving news headlines that helped shape investor expectations in the week that was.

Monday, 16 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Biden team sees few options on inflation before November midterms
• Bezos and White House battle over taxes and inflation
• New York state factory activity slumps again in May; price pressures easing
• Fed minions thinking about undoing their overstimulus of U.S. housing market:
• Sales of Fed's mortgage-backed securities may be future option, Williams says
• Bigger trouble developing in China, Eurozone:
• China's economy skids as lockdowns hit factories, retailers
• China April property sales post steepest drop since 2006
• Hungary PM Orban warns of "era of recession" in Europe
• S&P 500 ends lower as Tesla falls, while energy rallies
• Yields slip, stocks struggle as economic fears grow

Tuesday, 17 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Strong U.S. retail sales, manufacturing output boost economic outlook
• U.S. manufacturing output rises more than expected in April
• Oil falls 2% on hopes for Venezuela supply
• Chief minion gets to keep collecting paycheck, says will turn screws as needed; other Fed minions say no recession over next 18 months and that fixing supply chain would fix inflation:
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed by Senate for a second term
• Fed's Powell vows to raise rates as high as needed to kill inflation surge
• Quotes: Powell says Fed won't hesitate to move past neutral
• Bullard: U.S. growth likely to continue above trend amid strong consumption
• Fed's Kashkari: how high rates need to go depends on supply side
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Beijing's retail, industry upended by COVID restrictions
• Analysis: China faces uphill battle to repeat 2020 miracle as exports falter
• Eurozone economy less bad than previously thought:
• Euro zone Q1 GDP growth rate revised upward to end-2021 pace
• BOJ minions got a fever, the only prescription is more stimulus cowbell:
• BOJ deputy vows to maintain monetary stimulus despite price pressures
• ECB minions thinking some more about hiking rates to combat Eurozone inflation, will devote more time to listening to central bank heads:
• ECB to hike deposit rate 25 bps in July, ditch negative rates by end-September: Reuters poll
• ECB's Centeno says policy normalisation must happen in sustainable way
• Exclusive-ECB's Lagarde gives national central bank chiefs louder voice on policy
• Wall Street ends sharply higher, fueled by Apple
• Consumer stocks diverge as Walmart disappoints, citing inflation

Wednesday, 18 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Wells Fargo sees end-of-year U.S. recession, cuts GDP view
• Oil falls 2.5% as U.S. refiners ramp up output, equities retreat
• U.S. housing market cooling as building permits tumble, starts fall
• Prospective Fed minion wants to fight inflation, established Fed minions claim they want smaller rate hikes:
• Fed nominee Barr says he's committed to bringing down inflation
• Fed's Evans wants smaller U.S. rate hikes by July or Sept
• Fed's Harker sees 50 bps rate hikes in June, July, then 'measured' hikes
• Bigger trouble developing in China, Japan:
• China lockdowns impeding supply chain recovery, slowdown risks spillovers, Yellen says
• Japan's GDP shrinks as surging costs raise spectre of deeper downturn
• ECB minions still thinking about hiking interest rates someday, worry about Ukraine war's effect on Eurozone economy:
• ECB policymakers push for quick monetary policy normalisation
• Euro zone April inflation revised down to 7.4%; still a record high
• ECB tells banks to buckle up as Ukraine war hits economy
• Wall Street ends sharply lower as Target and growth stocks sink
• Instant View: Wall Street recoils 3% on Target, tightening concerns

Thursday, 19 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. existing home sales fall for third straight month; house prices at record high
• Investors jolted as U.S. retailers show inflation hitting consumers
• U.S. labor market in spotlight as weekly jobless claims hit 4-month high
• Oil swings wildly, rebounding to gains after steep losses
• Fed minions say they're not worried about falling stock prices:
• Fed's George: Policy "not aimed" at equity markets, but it will be felt there - CNBC
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's zero-COVID policy dashes global hopes for quick economic return to normal
• China seen lowering lending benchmark LPR to support economy: Reuters Poll
• Egypt's central bank launches serious assault against inflation:
• Egypt's central bank, citing inflation, hikes interest rates 200 bps
• ECB minions put credibility on the line while thinking about hiking rates to fight inflation someday:
• As ECB pares back stimulus, investors alert for fragmentation risk
• ECB accounts show debate over speed of policy tightening
• S&P 500 ends lower as Cisco and Apple sink
• Cisco crashes to 18-month low as China lockdown raises supply doubts
• Rare double whammy hits retail investors: steep slumps for both stocks and bonds

Friday, 20 May 2022

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil settles up as supply risks outweigh economic worries
• Most dovish Fed minion now setting expectations for bigger rate hikes:
• Strong household finances may mean Fed must to do more -Kashkari
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Taiwan export orders fall for first time in 2 years, hurt by China lockdowns, global weakness
• Shanghai economy hit on all sides in April by COVID lockdown
• China cuts borrowing rate more than expected to revive housing sector
• China pledges to give virus-hit companies easier access to capital markets
• BOJ minions elated to finally hit their inflation target after years of deflationary conditions, pledge to keep stimulus going:
• Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years
• BOJ's Kuroda vows to keep easy policy, remain dovish G7 outlier
• Former central banker says central banks share blame in creating inflation:
• Ex-Bank of England governor King says central banks share blame for inflation
• ECB minions thinking they can safely hike rates to combat inflation:
• ECB can move rates back into positive territory: Visco
• ECB can safely raise rates out of negative territory, Visco says
• Money markets price in 50-50 chance of 50 bps July ECB hike
• Wall Street ends mixed, Tesla falls
• Retail sell-off: discounters, auto stores lead losses

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hike rates by a half-point in June (2022-Q2), followed by a two more half-point hikes in July and September (2022-Q3). After which, the tool projects the Fed will slow down, hiking rates by just a quarter point each in November and December 2022 (2022-Q4) to close out the year.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2022-Q2, up from last week's projection of 1.8%.