Category Archives: Russian PMI

4/3/15: Composite Activity Indicators for BRIC & Russia: February

Having covered Manufacturing PMIs ( for BRICs and Services PMIs (, let's take a look at the data for combined metrics of two sectors.

First, table below summarises the changes in Manufacturing and Services PMIs across all BRICs:

Markit - the source of both PMI data sets - also reports Composite PMI of their own. My data is based on same inputs but takes a more simple approach of combining the two data points for each country. This allows me to take each economy aggregate performance across the sectors and group these economies into BRIC group by weighing their combined PMIs score by each economy's relative position in the global economy.

Here are the results:

And for BRICs excluding Russia:

The above charts show two things:

  1. BRICs overall contribution to global growth is positive but weak, although it registered an improvement in February 2015 compared to January.
  2. Russia acts as a drag on global and BRICs growth. Major divergence between Russia and other BRICs started in January 2014, which, incidentally tells us that the talk about Russia not belonging to BRIC group on the basis of some structural or trend considerations is bonkers. Until January 2014, co-movement between BRICs ex-Russia and Russia is very strong and divergence from January 2014 on is clearly linked to geopolitical crisis and oil price collapse, rather than due to structural decoupling between BRICs ex-Russia and Russia.

4/3/15: Russian Services and Composite PMIs signal continued deterioration in the economy

Services PMI for Russia for February 2015 came in at a disappointing - nay disastrous - 41.3 down from January 43.9 and marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. 3mo average through February is now at 43.7 which is much worse than already poor 3mo average through November 2014 (47.5) and is down massively on 3mo average through February 2014 (51.5). February reading is the lowest in 71 months.

Composite PMI came in at 44.7 - marking a sharp contraction in the economy, down from 45.6 in January 2015. February was the 5th consecutive monthly sub-50 reading and  the lowest for 69 months. 3mo average for Composite indicator is at 45.8, which is down on 3mo average through November 2014 (49.2) and sharply down on 3mo average through February 2014 (50.8).

Chart above shows continued downward trend in all three series since around October 2012, preceded by a weak growth trend from the point of recovery after the Global Financial Crisis in and around Q4 2009 through Q3 2012. The current sub-trend of accelerated decline in composite and services PMIs (August 2014-present) is, dynamically, very similar to the sub-trend over October 2013-May 2014 and similar, again to the sub-trend over January 2013 through July 2013. Dynamically, all indication are that over the next 4-6 months we will see both services and composite indicators hitting mid-30s and manufacturing PMI falling toward high 30s, as consistent with the economic contraction rate closer to 4-5 percent over the year.

Note: Russian manufacturing PMIs were covered here:

2/3/15: Russian Manufacturing PMI: February 2015

Russian Manufacturing PMI (based on HSBC/Markit data) improved from 47.6 in January (sharp contraction that is marked by a statistically significant sub-50 reading) to 49.7 in February (also contractionary, but at a much weaker rate and statistically not significantly different fro 50.0).

According to Markit release, "Russian manufacturing business conditions deteriorated only fractionally in February, as stronger domestic demand drove an increase in new work and production rose slightly. The latest HSBC PMI® data compiled by Markit also signalled weaker – but still severe – inflationary pressures during the month, reflecting the ruble’s recovery from record lows. That said, overall growth of new orders was weak as new export business continued to decline sharply, and employment extended a survey-record sequence of decline to 20 months."

This marks third consecutive month of sub-50 readings, with 3mo average through February 2015 standing at 48.7, weaker than 50.8 3mo average through November 2014, but somewhat better than 3mo average of 48.4 recorded for the 3 months through February 2013. So year on year rate of decline in Manufacturing activity slowed down, but conditions remain weak and are still close to weakening.

2/2/15: Russian Manufacturing PMI slips in January

Russian Manufacturing PMI (Markit and HSBC) for January came in at 47.6, below 50.0 (statistically significant sub-50 reading), down from 48.9 in December. This is the second consecutive month of below 50 readings.

3mo MA through January is at 49.4, which is well down on 3mo MA through October 2014 which stands at 50.6, but ahead of 3mo MA through January 2014 which was 47.6.

The trend remains negative and has been reinforced in January.