Category Archives: #COVIDBrazil

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases


Worldwide COVID19 developments through October 16 ECDC data were covered in the post here: Now, as usual, time to take a look at the group of countries with more than 100,000 cases.

As always, the table is presented in two parts:

Here are some summary cases:

The above shows relative positions of the U.S., EU27, G7+ Spain, BRIICS+ Turkey in the league standings. The U.S. continues to lead in terms of both deaths and cases impact of the pandemic, accounting for 20% of all global cases and deaths, despite having just over 4.3% of the world's population. Thanks for the new wave of thee pandemic now hitting the EU27, this group of countries has moved from being statistically 'average' to being 'worse than average' to join the U.S. and other heavily-impacted countries. 

Summary of descriptive statistics:

In terms of overall performance, thee U.S. ranks 9th worst in the league of countries with > 100,000 cases, while the EU27, if it was a country of its own, would have ranked 18th. The UK ranks 9th worst, Spain 5th worst. Peru is the worst impacted country with more than 100,000 cases, followed by Belgium in the 2nd place, Bolivia in the 3rd and Brazil in thee 4th.

Stay tuned for my usual in-depth look at the U.S. vs EU27.

16/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths


Based on the ECDC data through October 16, 2020, here are the latest COVID19 pandemic numbers worldwide:


  • As of October 16, there were 38,941,034 cases identified world-wide. 
  • The rate of new cases arrivals 338,793 per day over the last 7 days, which is above the 30-days average of 311,074.
  • Since the start of October, there were 8 days with daily counts ranked within the top 10 highest in the entire history of the pandemic.
  • The rate of new cases arrivals rose to a massive 21.2 percent in October to-date, almost 50% higher than the average daily growth rate in September, almost 50 times the rate of new cases growth in August, and more than double the rate of growth in June-July.
  • All of the above clearly indicates that, globally, we are still in the acceleration phase of the first wave of COVID19 pandemic.

  • The slight reduction in daily counts we've seen between the first week of August and the end of September is now fully exhausted. 
  • Over the last 7 days, daily death counts averaged 5,135 worldwide, which is slightly below the 30-days average of 5,486,  but rising once again.
  • October (to-date) average daily growth rate in deaths is 17.62%, which is massive, compared to September's 9.99%, and to falling rate of -2.41% recorded in August. October rate is so far three times higher than June-July rate.
  • Note that October to-date rate of growth in new cases is pretty close to the rate of growth in new deaths. This is worrying, because it seems to contradict some claims made in the media about allegedly rapidly declining mortality of COVID19.
Net: rates of growth:
You can see the trends discussed above in the chart: from April through July, we witness sustained case of daily deaths growth rates running below the new cases growth rates. Starting with the fourth week of July, this relationship breaks down. 

The above fact suggests that it is too premature to claim that COVID19 pandemic is on track to containment: both cases and deaths numbers indicate that the global pandemic has returned to an accelerating phase of its dynamics, 

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases


Updating tables for the countries with more than 100,000 cases of COVID19:

  • There are now 40 countries with >100,000 cases and 12 countries with > 500,000 cases. 
  • The U.S. continues to lead the world in the number of cases and number of deaths: the country accounts for 4.3 percent of world population, 21% of diagnosed COVID19 cases and 20% of attributed deaths.
  • EU27 accounts for 5.9% of the world's population, 7% of all cases, but 14% of world's deaths.
  • BRIICS+Turkey account for 46.5% of world's population, 40% of world's cases and 30% of attributed deaths.
  • 8 of the EU27 countries are on the list of countries with > 100,000 cases.
  • In overall performance rankings, the U.S. is ranked within the group of 'worse-than-average performers' (8th worst in the group of 40), while the EU27 ranks within-average (18th worst performer, if it were a country), the UK ranks 9th worst performer, with Peru remaining the hardest hit country of all countries with > 100,000 cases, with Bolivia second and Belgium third.

7/10/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths


Updating new data for COVID19 new cases and deaths through October 7, 2020 (ECDC data timeline):

Globally, we remain in the first wave of the pandemic both in terms of new cases arrivals and death counts:

What the numbers above are telling us:
  • New cases arrivals trend at 298,196 per day over the last 7 days, albeit with increasing daily volatility due to a number of countries with large case numbers switching to less regular reporting of cases in recent weeks. The daily average for the last 7 days is in excess of the 30-days average of 286,123 and well above the historical average of 130,960. In terms of new cases, therefore, we are still in the first wave of the pandemic, and now past the first period of moderation in the infections spread that took place from, roughly during August.
  • Daily deaths counts are currently at 5,399 for the last 7 days, which is lower than the 30-days average of 5,642, but still well above the historical average of 3,848. Some observers have noted in recent weeks that the deaths curve is down somewhat on the local peak attained around the first week of August. The decline, however, is very shallow and is driven not only by the improved treatment and detection, but also by the changing demographic of new cases (younger and healthier patients becoming impacted). There is, most likely, a residual issue of changes in geographies of new cases, that also impacts reporting and assignment of deaths. In simple terms, core data shows no encouraging trends so far in terms of daily deaths counts: the pandemic's Wave 1 continues. 
The above analysis is reflected in the growth rates. Stripping out some daily volatility, here are 7-day rolling average changes in both deaths and new cases:

The worrying trend in both series shown above is: 
  • We are now past the prior moderation in the rates of growth in both cases and deaths, with the start of September marking a clear uptick in daily growth rates in both series.
  • Current daily rates of growth are running in line with past peak periods averages (post-April) for new deaths, and above past peak averages for new cases.
  • October (to-date) growth rates in both series are not only double-digits high, but are well above June-August averages and historical averages. They are also stronger than September averages. Tables below summarise these facts:

I will update other data sets on COVID19 pandemic evolution in subsequent posts, but the global trends clearly show that we are in a continued state of global pandemic still raging unabated.

Note: for those keen on looking at more recent changes, see my prior post on the same subject here:

25/9/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with 100,000 cases and higher

 Summary tables for 36 countries with 100,000 cases and above:

The U.S. continues to 'lead' the world in terms of sheer magnitude of the pandemic, followed by India, Brazil and Russia. The U.S. also continues to dominate the world tables in the numbers of people who died from the COVID19, followed by Brazil, India and Mexico. 

While the U.S. only accounts for 4.3% of the world population, it accounts for 22% of all cases of COVID19 and 21% of all deaths from the disease. 

Meanwhile, the highest per-capita rate of infections is registered in Quatar, followed by Panama and Peru. The highest per-capita deaths are in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, while the highest mortality rate (deaths per confirmed cases) are in Italy, Mexico and the UK.

Out of all countries with 100K cases and higher, plus the EU27, as ranked based on three criteria (cases per capita, deaths per capita and deaths per case)

  • The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer,
  • The EU27 ranks 16th worst performer
  • The U.S. ranks worse than any EU27 member state in the 100K table, with exception of Spain (ranked 3rd worst).