Category Archives: Baltic Dry Index

3/2/15: Global Trade Growth: More Compression, Whatever About Hope…

As I noted just a couple of days ago, global trade growth is falling off the cliff (see: And euro area's trade growth is leading to the downside:

So no surprise there that the Baltic Dry Index is tumbling. As noted by @moved_average, the index is now down 577 - the level below the crisis peak lows and consistent with those observed back in 1985-1986 lows.

Ugly gets uglier... but you won't spot this in PMIs...

As an aside, in the chart above, perhaps a telling bit is the lack of any positive uplift in euro area trade growth from the introduction of the euro. 

21/1/2015: Global Trade Indicators Flashing Red

Two very interesting charts reflecting upon the same macroeconomic reality: world trade is slowing down. Big time…

First, IMF revisions of the global trade growth rates forecasts for 2015 - now at their lowest in 12 months (chart courtesy of the @zerohedge):

And next, Baltic Dry Index series printing 753,000 currently, a level consistent with depths of 2009 crisis and 2012-2013 slump (chart courtesy of @Schuldensuehner) :

All in, the above highlights the powerless nature of large scale advanced economies' QE measures when it comes to reigniting global demand.