Category Archives: Russia

7/11/20: BRIC: Composite Economic Indicators for October

I covered BRIC Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October in two earlier posts (see here https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/51120-bric-services-pmis-october.html), so now, Composite PMIs:

Brazil Composite PMI rose to 55.9 in October, compared to 51.6 in 3Q 2020, and currently sits above Global Composite PMI of 53.3. The latest increase in PMI is a robust signal of partial recovery, marking the third consecutive month of > 50.0 readings that followed five consecutive months of contraction.
Russia Composite PMI was the weakest of all BRIC PMIs, falling to 47.1 in October, compared to 55.9 in 3Q 2020, and marking the first sub-50 reading in four months.
India Composite PMI was the strongest amongst the BRIC PMIs rising to 58.0 in October against 45.9 in 3Q 2020. Overall, Indian economy is only starting to inch out of the recession that was marked by two consecutive quarters of sharply contractionary PMIs.
China Composite PMI posted an increase to 55.7 in October relative to 54.7 in 3Q 2020, marking the start of the third quarter of growth. Overall, the latest reading indicates that Chinese economy has completed its recovery from 1Q 2020 recession.

Overall, BRIC Manufacturing indicator (55.2 in October, compared to 53.0 in 3Q 2020) and Services indicator (54.9 in October, compared to 51.0 in 3Q 2020) have posted better performance than their Global counterparts (53.0 and 52.9, respectively for October). BRIC Manufacturing indicator is now outperforming Global Manufacturing PMI in 8th consecutive quarters, and BRIC Services indicators is running above Global Services PMI for the first time after posting poorer performance in 3Q 2020.

5/11/20: BRIC: Services PMIs October

In the earlier post, I covered BRIC economies manufacturing PMIs for October: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/31120-bric-manufacturing-pmis-october.html. Now, leet's take a look at Services PMI.

As the chart above illustrates:

Brazil Services PMI rose from 47.5 in 3Q 2020 to 52.3 in October. Prior to October, Brazil's services sector was in a contractionary territory for three consecutive quarters. October marks the second month of above 50.0 readings, although statistically-speaking, September reading was indistinguishable from 50.0 stagnation / zero growth level.
Russian Services PMI posted a sharp contraction, falling from 56.8 in 3Q 2020 to 46.9 in October. Russia enjoyed just three months of > 50.0 readings in July-September 2020, implying that the economy is nowhere near a V-shaped recovery from the pandemic and that things are getting worse, not better in the services sectors. Even worse dynamics apply to Manufacturing where Russia has not seen sustained > 50 readings since March 2019.
India Services PMI rose to 54.1 in October, marking the first month of above 50.0 readings since February 2020. Given cumulative nature of the PMIs, October rebound is nowhere near being sizeable enough to start closing the pandemic-induced drop-off in economic activity. India's services have now posted seven months of contraction in 2020, compared to four months for Manufacturing. October marks the first month since February with both indices above 50.0.
Chinese Services PMI rose to 56.8 in October, compared to 54.8 in September, marking 6th consecutive month of both Manufacturing and Services PMIs above 50.0 line.

Overall, BRIC Services Activity Index (a measure of Services sectors activity calculated by me based on monthly Markit PMI data and country-specific share of the world GDP, PPP-adjusted) rose to 54.9 in October compared to 51.0 in 3Q 2020, marking a second month of > 50.0 readings and accelerating growth momentum. October BRIC reading is in excess of the Global Services PMI reading of 52.9, implying that as a group, BRIC economies are contributing positively to global economic growth momentum, although both Brazil and Russia are pushing BRIC reading down, compared to Global Services PMI.

3/11/20: BRIC: Manufacturing PMIs October

BRIC's manufacturing PMIs are out for October, marking the start of Q4 2020. Overall, the results reinforce Q3 2020 trends highlighted here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html.

Brazil posted further acceleration in the recovery momentum with Manufacturing PMI rising to 66.7 from 3Q 2020 62.6. 3Q 2020 was the historical record quarter for Brazil's Manufacturing PMI readings. Brazil's Manufacturing PMIs have now strengthened every month since May 2020, the last month of sub-50 readings.
In contrast to Brazil, Russia Manufacturing PMI slipped again in October, hitting a 5-months low at 46.9, down from 48.9 in September and well below already poor 49.5 reading for 3Q 2020. Prior to 4Q 2020, Russia clocked five consecutive quarters of Manufacturing PMIs below 50.0 mark.
China Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.0 in 3Q 2020 to 53.6 in October. China's latest reading is on-trend, with rising PMIs for the third quarter in a row.
India Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.6 in 3Q 2020 and this improved to 58.9 in October, marking a major acceleration in growth conditions.
Three of the BRIC economies have posted October Manufacturing PMI readings more robust than Global PMI reading of 53.0. Thus, overall BRIC Manufacturing activity index stood at 55.2 in October, well ahead of 53.0 reading for 3Q 2020. The last time BRIC Manufacturing activity index was below that of the Global Manufacturing PMI was 4Q 2018.
Russia was the only BRIC economy to continue posting recessionary PMI reading in its manufacturing sector.

14/10/20: BRIC: Composite economic activity indicators Q3 results

We covered in detail strong recovery in BRIC Manufacturing PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html) and fragile recovery in Services PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-services-pmis-q3-results.html). Here is a summary chart:

Now, let's take a look at BRIC Composite PMIs for 3Q 2020:

Brazil Composite PMI ended Q3 2020 on a reading of 51.6 - an improvement on 31.8 in 2Q 2020. Brazil's Composite PMIs have run sub-50 recessionary reading in 1Q and 2Q 2020, returning to growth in 3Q 2020, albeit at the levels not consistent with a V-shaped recovery.

Russia Composite PMI stood at a strong 55.9 reading in 3Q 2020, up on 32.6 in 2Q 2020 and signaling an end to 2 consecutive quarters of sub-50 readings. This marks the fastest pace of growth since 1Q 2017, but is also consistent with the levels of current activity being still below pre-COVID19 pandemic period.

India Composite PMI remained in recessionary territory in 3Q 2020 at 45.9, an improvement on 19.9 in 2Q 2020. Overall, Indian economy has suffered the sharpest hit from the pandemic, compared to all other BRICs. It is continuing to exhibit recessionary dynamics to-date.

China Composite PMI ended 3Q 2020 at 54.7, marking the second consecutive quarter of recover (2Q 2020 reading was 52.6). 3Q 2020 reading is the highest since 1Q 2020, and suggests that the Chinese economy is getting close to recovery in its activity levels to pre-pandemic position.

Overall, BRIC block activity indices imply lagging momentum in the recovery in services, and faster than global pace of recovery in manufacturing. Statistically, BRIC growth momentum in 3Q 2020 is within historical average, however, growth dynamics in 1Q and 2Q 2020 were significantly below historical averages, which implies that 3Q 2020 PMIs indicate incomplete or only partial recovery in the BRIC economies post-pandemic so far.

14/10/20: BRIC: Services PMIs Q3 results

BRIC Manufacturing has rebounded strongly from thee pandemic lows, as covered in this post here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/141020-bric-manufacturing-pmis-q3.html. Services PMI for the BRIC economies signal similar, albeit weaker rebound in July-September:

Brazil Services PMI stayed in the recession territory in 3Q 2020, with index reading coming in at 47.5, up on 30.3 in 2Q 2020, but still marking a third consecutive quarter of sub-50 readings. Put simply, unlike manufacturing that is showing rather incredible signs of the recovery, Brazil's services sectors continue to show ongoing contraction, building on 6 consecutive months of contracting activity through August 2020. September monthly reading at 50.4 is statistically indistinguishable from zero growth line of 50.0. In summary, Brazil's services sector is not in a recovery so far.

Russia Services PMI posted very strong recovery signals in 3Q 2020, although September reading slipped to 53.7 (fast growth) from blistering 58.5 and 58.2 in July and August, respectively. 3Q 2020 Russia Services PMI was at 56.8 marking a sharp turnaround from 36.0 in 2Q 2020. This is the fastest pace of quarterly expansion since 1Q 2017.

India Services PMI remains in contraction, with 3Q 2020 reading of 41.9, an improvement on sharper rates of deterioration in 2Q 2020 at 17.2. September marked seventh consecutive month of sub-50 readings in Services sector in India.

China Services PMI came in at 54.3 in 3Q 2020, up on 52.6 in 2Q 2020, marking second consecutive quarter of recovery from the pandemic lows of 1Q 2020 when the index fell to 40.4.

Overall, BRIC Services Activity Index - an index compiled by me based on GDP shares and Markit monthly PMI data - rose from 40.4 in 2Q 2020 to 51.0 in 3Q 2020. Given the nature of PMIs as signals of monthly changes in activity, 3Q 2020 reading is consistent with the BRIC block services sectors recovering only partially from the pandemic lows. BRIC Services Activity Index ended 3Q 2020 at the levels slightly below the Global Services PMI which stood at 51.4. Global services sectors are also showing more rapid rate of quarterly recovery, rising from 35.6 in 2Q 2020 to 51.4 in 3Q 2020.