Category Archives: Brazil PMI

5/8/15: BRIC Composite PMIs: July 2015

I covered BRIC economies' Manufacturing PMIs for July here:

Now, let's take a look at Services PMIs and Composite.

  • Brazil Services PMI fell from an extremely poor 39.9 in June 2015 to an abysmal 39.1 in July, reaching a joint historical low (total history for the series spans 101 months). July reading was so poor, 3mo average through last month fell to 40.5 against 3mo average through April 2015 at 48.3 and 3mo average through July 2014 at 50.7.
  • Per Markit: "The downturn remained widespread across the services categories covered by the survey, with all of the sub-sectors registering substantial falls in business activity. The steepest contraction was at Hotels & Restaurants, followed by Transport & Storage. The level of new business in the service economy decreased for the fifth straight month in July. The pace of reduction was slightly faster than in the prior month, but nonetheless still less severe than in May (when new business fell at the quickest pace since April 2009). 
  • Brazil's woeful Services PMI was compounded by a drop in Manufacturing (see summary of both below), driving official Brazil Composite PMI deep into contraction territory at 40.8 against already extremely low 41.0 in June. Overall, Composite index has hit the lowest point since March 2009.
  • Overall: there is absolutely no doubt that both Services and Manufacturing are currently in a recession, with below 50 readings in both sectors present since March 2015
  • Russia Services PMI strengthened from 49.5 in June to 51/6 in July marking the return to growth in the sector. On a 3mo average basis, July 2015 reading was at 51.3, well ahead of 3mo average through April 2015 (46) and 3mo average reading through July 2014 (48.5). 
  • However, Russian Manufacturing PMI (see separate coverage here:
  • The respective Russian Composite Output Index improved to 50.9 in July, up from 49.5 in the preceding month. Per Markit: "Supporting the rise in overall activity for the service sector was a fourth consecutive month of increasing volumes of incoming new business. Moreover, the rate of growth accelerated to the highest recorded for twenty months amid reports that a more positive economic climate was driving demand for services upwards."
  • More details on both Russia Composite PMI and Services PMI here:
  • Overall: these are some tentative early-stage signs of economic stabilisation and possibly recovery. Too early to call a new trend, however, and any talk of real recovery will require sustained rise in Manufacturing PMI above 51-51.5 mark.
  • China Services PMI posted yet another above 50 reading (the Index never once dipped below 50.0 mark) rising strongly from 51.8 in June to 53.8 in July. This is the strongest reading in the Index since August 2014 and brings 3mo average through July 2015 to 53.0, up on 52.4 3mo average through April 2014 and on 51.3 3mo average through July 2014.
  • Sub-50 reading in Manufacturing PMI reflective of further worsening in manufacturing downturn in the economy (ongoing since November 2014 with a brief interruption in February 2015) meant that China Composite PMI posted "only fractionally above the neutral 50.0 mark at 50.2, down from 50.6 in June, and pointed to the weakest rate of expansion in 14 months."
  • Overall: China remains on slower growth path with Manufacturing under significant pressure. This trend is linked to the fortunes of global trade flows (more so than Services) and to weakening investment outlook for Chinese firms.
  • India Services PMI rose to 50.8 in July, marking a very shallow recovery in the sector and breaking two months streak of sub-50 readings. July reading was up on 47.7 in June and on a 3mo average basis, figures through July 2015 are at 49.4 - signalling weak contraction against 3mo average through April 2015 at 53.1 and 3mo average through July 2014 at 52.3.
  • Strong Manufacturing performance in PMI terms and weak, but above 50 reading in Services provided upside support for the Composite PMI. Per Markit: "After having fallen in the previous month, output across the combined manufacturing and service sectors in India rose during July. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 52.0 from 49.2 in June to signal a modest increase in activity. Growth has now been recorded in 14 of the past 15 months. The return to expansion was helped by a first rise in services activity in three months and an acceleration in the rate of manufacturing production growth."
  • Overall: India regained its strong performance dynamic in July across both sectors, with relatively weaker performance in Services. Indian economy currently leads the BRIC group in terms of growth momentum as signalled by PMIs.

Summary of changes across both Manufacturing and Services PMIs is provided below:

And chart for Services PMIs illustrates: 

Overall, BRIC activity as contributor to global growth has improved, remains weak. In June, the BRIC group of economies was contracting and exerting downward pressure on global growth. However, in July, they made a positive contribution, albeit extremely shallow.

In recent months, it has become customary for BRIC economies analysts to suggest that Russia is the weakest component to BRIC activity. However, while this assertion was true through 1Q 2015, it is no longer holding since then:

This, however, is of little consolation to an economy in a recession.

9/7/15: BRIC Composite PMIs: June 2015 & 2Q 2015

In the previous post covering Manufacturing & Services PMIs for BRIC economies, I promised to provide a separate summary of composite PMI-signalled activity.

Here is the summary of both Services and Manufacturing PMIs moves in June:

On a simple cumulative basis (unweighted by sector weights, not to be confused with Markit's Composite PMI):

  • Brazil composite activity stood at 86.4 in June, down from 88.4 in May. 2Q 2015 average was 88.5 against 98.4 for 1Q 2015 and down from 99.7 for 2Q 2014. In short - we have ongoing and worsening slowdown in activity across both sectors combined, with the fourth consecutive month of the combined reading below expansion line (100).
  • Russia composite activity stood at 98.2 in June, down from 100.4 in May. 2Q 2015 average was 99.4 - an improvement on 92.2 for 1Q 2015 and better than 96.4 recorded for 2Q 2014. The ongoing slowdown is moderating, with activity across both sectors combined showing slower rates of contraction in 2Q 2015. That said, combined activity has been posting contractionary signals in 8 out the last 9 months.
  • India composite activity fell to 99.0 in June, posting the first month of sub-100 reading since April 2014, down from 102.2 in May. 2Q 2015 average was 101.6 against 105.4 for 1Q 2015 and down from 102.4 for 2Q 2014. This implies that Indian economic activity growth was posting a significant slowdown q/q and y/y in 2Q 2015.
  • China composite activity stood at 101.2 in June, down from 102.7 in May. 2Q 2015 average was 101.9 virtually unchanged against 102.0 for 1Q 2015 and up slightly on 101.1 for 2Q 2014.  China's economy was the only economy in the BRIC group that remained above the 100 line in June.

Charts below illustrate the latest trends:

In summary, things are getting worse, progressively across the BRIC economies, with Russia, surprisingly, presenting an upside momentum to the overall group growth dynamics. That said, the trends are yet to be fully established for Russia. Overall, BRICs have now running along the negative growth trend for some time and BRIC combined (weighted by each economy share of total group GDP) momentum is at 99.0 in June, marking the first sub-100 reading since May 2014. 3mo average through 2Q 2015 is at 100.3, down on 1Q 2015 average of 101.4 and down on 2Q 2014 average of 100.8.

9/7/15: BRIC Manufacturing & Services PMIs: June 2015 & 2Q 2015

With BRICS summit on its way, an updated post on BRIC PMIs (data from Markit):


Manufacturing PMI stood at 46.5 in June, singling sharp rate of contraction that was somewhat slower than the decline in May (45.9). Per Markit, "new orders and output both drop at sharp rates; inflationary pressures ease." June PMI was the highest in four months and marks the fifth consecutive month of sub-50 readings. 3mo average is now at 46.1 against 3mo average through March at 48.8 and 3mo average through June 2014 at 48.9.

Services PMI also came in at disappointing levels, falling to an abysmally low 39.9 in June from already low 42.5 in May. This marks the lowest reading in Services PMI since March 2009 and the second lowest reading in Services PMI in history.

As noted by Markit, "Private sector jobs cut at quickest pace for over six years; Steep, but slower, contraction in new orders received by private sector firms."

With 4th consecutive month of sub-50 readings, services PMI averaged 42.3 in 3mo period through June 2015, compared to 49.5 average for the 3mo period through March 2015 and 50.8 for the 3mo average through June 2014.

Overall, "Brazil’s private sector economy registered its sharpest retreat since March 2009. Down from 42.9 in May to 41.0 in June, the Composite Output Index was indicative of a steep drop in activity, with sharp falls seen at both service providers and manufacturers."


Russian PMIs are covered in detail here: and summarised below in the table.


India's Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3, signalling weak-to-moderate expansion of manufacturing output and down from 53.5 in May. On a 3mo average basis, June 2015 PMI was at 51.7 - marginally slower than 3mo average of 52.1 for the period January-March 2015 and slightly ahead of 51.4 3mo average registered through June 2014. Markit noted that June figures presented the "slowest rise in new work since September 2014; Negligible increases in input costs and output charges."

On Services PMI side, June reading of 47.7 marks second consecutive month of sub-50 readings and a sharpening in the downturn from 49.6 in May 2015. 3mo average through June 2015 is now at 49.9 against 3mo average through March 2015 of 53.1 and 3mo average through June 2014 at 51.0. Services PMI is now sitting at the lowest level since March 2014.

Per Markit: "Falling to 49.2, from 51.2 In May, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index recorded below the crucial 50.0 threshold for the first time since April 2014. Reductions in activity were centred at service providers, as manufacturing production rose during the month."


HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing posted at 49.4 in June. This was the fourth successive, marginally up on 49.2 in May. This marks 4th consecutive month of Chinese manufacturing PMI readings below 50. Per Markit release, "Output contracts at slower pace as new orders show signs of revival" but "Staff numbers are cut at sharpest rate since February 2009." 3mo average through June 2015 was 49.2 down from 3mo average for 1Q 2015 AT 50.0 and lower than 49.4 3mo average through 2Q 2014.

On services side, PMI posted a significant "moderation in the rate of service sector activity growth. Moreover, it was the slowest expansion in services business activity since January, as signalled by the HSBC China Services Business Activity Index posting 51.8, down from May’s eight-month high of 53.5." However, 3mo average for services was at 52.7 in June 2015, compared to 52.0 in 3mo period through March 2015 and 51.7 for the 3mo average through June 2014.

"HSBC China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a further rise in total business activity in China during June. However, the rate of expansion eased to a marginal pace that was the slowest recorded since May 2014. This was signalled by the HSBC Composite Index posting only slightly above the neutral 50.0 mark at 50.6 in June, down from 51.2 in May."


As shown in the charts above, growth conditions remain negative in 3 out of 4 BRIC economies in Manufacturing and Services. No single BRIC economy is posting broad cross-sectoral growth in June and on quarterly averages basis, 
  • Brazil is running negative growth signals in both Services and Manufacturing;
  • Russia and China are running negative growth in both Manufacturing;
  • India is running negative growth in Services.
This contrasts with 1Q 2015 when Brazil and Russia were posting negative growth across both Services and Manufacturing, while India and China were posting positive growth across both sectors.

Things are getting tougher in the BRICs...

Stay tuned for composite analysis and summary next.

3/6/15: BRIC Services & Composite PMIs: May 2015

Time to tally up BRICs PMIs for May.

Manufacturing numbers were covered here:

On services side:

  • Brazil Services PMI tanked spectacularly, falling from already strongly contractionary 44.6 in April to a 74-months low of 42.5 in May. 3mo average through May is now at an abysmal 45.0 against 3mo average through February at 49.9 and 3mo average through May 2014 of 50.7. All in, this is the third consecutive month of sub-50 readings and adjusting for statistical significance, Services PMI index rose above 50.0 only three times over the last 16 months. 
  • Russia Services PMI, meanwhile, surprised to the upside, rising from 50.7 in April (signalling weak growth) to 52.8 in May, signalling pretty robust recovery. 3mo average through May, however, is poor at 49.9, albeit an improvement against 3mo average through February at 43.7 and 3mo average through May 2014 of 46.9. All in, this is the second consecutive month of above-50 readings and first month of readings statically significantly above 50.0. May reading is the strongest since December 2013.
  • China Services PMI continued to signal expansion in the sector at an accelerating rate, as the index increased from 52.9 in April to 53.5 in May. 3mo average through May is now at a relatively strong 52.9 against 3mo average through February at 52.4 and 3mo average through May 2014 of 51.3.
  • India Services PMI tanked in May, falling from 52.4 in April to a 13-months low of 49.6 in May. 3mo average through May is now at 51.7 against 3mo average through February at 52.5 and 3mo average through May 2014 of 48.8. This development suggests substantial weakening in growth conditions in India which was the bright spot for growth within the BRICs group.

As the charts below shows, on a composite side, Russia has now reversed - for the second month running - previous trend and is now acting as a positive growth contributor to BRICs aggregates. The rest of BRICs, however, are acting as a drag on growth, especially when it comes to Brazil.

Table below summarises recent changes in the PMIs for both components across all BRICs:

7/5/15: BRIC Services & Composite PMIs: April 2015

In previous post I covered BRIC Manufacturing PMI for April (, so now let's take a look at the Services PMIs.

  • Brazil Services PMI reading for April came in at 44.6 - marking rapid contraction in the sector that is worse than 47.9 reading in March. Overall, 3mo average through April now stands at 48.3, which marks worse performance than already contractionary 48.7 for the 3 months through January 2015. 3mo average through April 2014 was 50.7. April was the second consecutive month of readings below 50 and over the last 9 months, there were only two months of the PMI reaching above 50.0.
  • Russian Services PMI were covered ind entail here: Dynamically, April reading of 50.7 came in as a surprise, breaking a 6mo-long streak of sub-50 postings. 3mo average through April is at very low 46.0 and 3mo average through January 2015 was even worse - at abysmal 44.7. A year ago, 3mo average through April 2014 stood at 48.4. Despite improved performance in April, it is hard to see Services PMI breaking the sub-50 trend in the medium term.
  • Chinese Services PMI came in at a marginally stronger growth, posting a reading of 52.9 in April compared to 52.3 in March. This is the third consecutive month of rising PMI readings and 3mo average through April 2015 currently stands at 52.4, which is marginally lower than 3mo average through January 2015 (52.7), but somewhat above 3mo average through April 2014 (51.4).
  • India Services PMI came in at 52.4, marginally lower than 53.0 in March 2015, marking second consecutive month of PMI declines. 3mo average through April 2015 is at 53.1 which is stronger than 52.0 for the 3mo through January 2015 and significantly above 48.3 3mo average through April 2014.

Full summary of Manufacturing and Services PMIs changes here:

As the above indicate, India remains on the upward PMI trend in Services sectors against flat, but above 50.0, trend for Manufacturing sectors. Brazil remains on downward trends in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, while China remains on a relatively weak upward trend in Services and weak downward trend in Manufacturing. Russia is too volatile to call on Services side and weak, but stabilising on Manufacturing side.

Combining the two sectors, overall activity in the BRIC economies suggests temporary (for now) convergence of Russian composite indicator to the upside, against BRIC ex-Russia indicator to the downside.

Once we take into account relive sizes of each BRIC economy in the global economy, BRIC group contribution to global growth appears to continue trending to the downside, as shown below: