I would have liked additional details about relationship between the strengthening of judicial institutions and the apparent professionalization of police and military forces, as well as economic and social development, but an interesting article nonetheless. Evan Ellis on The struggle against organized crime in Guatemala for Latin America Goes Global.
References to Guatemala in the U.S. press generally focus on child migrants, the Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 street gangs or the United-Nations sponsored anti-corruption commission CICIG, which helped bring about the arrest of the former president General Otto Pérez Molina. Yet, since the country’s “low point” in 2008, the government has successfully fought off an invasion by the violent Mexican criminal cartel Los Zetas, dismantled significant parts of four of the five major drug-smuggling organizations in the country (the Mendozas, Lorenzanas, Lopez Ortiz, and Leon family clans), brought murders and major crimes down by more than 50 percent, and done so with a military role in public security that is modest and decreasing. At the same time, Guatemala has also made significant progress against high-level corruption and strengthened key public institutions and processes.
The statistics are impressive. From a high-point of 46 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2008, Guatemala ended 2015 with a rate of 29.5 per 100,000, and is on track to end 2016 at 23 per 100,000. Similarly, serious crimes fell to 97 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015, and may finish 2016 at 90.
With respect to violent street gangs, Guatemala has always been less affected than neighboring El Salvador and Honduras. The 12,000 gang members in Guatemala are dominated by Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13 or Maras) and the larger Barrio 18 (B-18). In contrast to neighboring El Salvador, in Guatemala the two gangs are mostly limited to marginal neighborhoods on the outskirts of the capital, such as Villanueva and Mixto.
The big picture fits with what I have generally been saying. Guatemala has undergone significant security improvements when using statistical indicators. I can’t comment on the organized crime and military/police details. I also wonder whether Colombian units have been part of this resurgence. Have these units been part of the “solution” to Guatemala’s insecurity.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that life in Guatemala doesn’t have its challenges.
